Chris Bowers: Clinton's Position Appears to be Strengthening...

[SaveElmer]

From OpenLeft

As I showed in my nomination at a glance update yesterday, Hillary Clinton has improved her position in Iowa, and nationally, in recent weeks. Given that all of the top candidates will have more than enough money to compete during the primary season, the only truly negative mark for her was that Obama had pulled to within four points in New Hampshire. However, now a new poll from New Hampshire shows her lead in the state to be as strong as ever:

Hart (D) and McLaughlin (R), July 24-26, 504 LVs, no trendlines
Clinton: 36
Obama: 19
Edwards: 15
Richardson: 12
Kucinich: 2
Biden: 2
Dodd: 1
Gravel: 0
Undecided: 13

This moves the four-poll average in New Hampshire to Clinton 34.0%, Obama 25.3%, Edwards 13.3%, Richardson 9.5%. With her national advantage currently sitting at 15.3%, I calculate that she is only four points away from being able to survive a defeat in Iowa and New Hampshire and still be the frontrunner for the nomination. In fact, with a 9.3% advantage in New Hampshire, she is only three points away there from being able to survive a second-place finish in Iowa to Obama and still win New Hampshire. Right now, I calculate she already can survive a third-place Iowa finish to Edwards and Obama in Iowa and still take New Hampshire (narrowly to be sure, but she can still do it). The only truly bad situation for her right now would be a third or fourth place finish in Iowa coupled with an Obama victory in Iowa. However, as I pointed out yesterday, Clinton has taken the lead in Iowa.


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I point all of this out to make it as clear as possible that Hillary Clinton's lead is large, continuing to grow, and not in anyway similar to the advantages enjoyed by Lieberman and Gephardt in 2004. While both of them were consistently trending downward nationally and in Iowa respectively due to high, and not very favorable, name recognition among Democrats, Hillary Clinton is instead well-liked among the base and facing two high-name ID challengers in Edwards and Obama. It also does not appear that direct attacks on Hillary Clinton are working very well, since she trended noticeably upward during the foreign policy "spat" with Obama. Rather than the 2004 campaign, a much better analogy for Hillary Clinton's advantage is the 1984 and 2000 campaigns. Both of those campaigns featured former Democratic Vice-Presidents, which is basically what Hillary Clinton is for the rank and file right now.

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But how, if or even whether Hillary Clinton should / could lose the nomination are questions for another post. For now, I think it suffices as a stand alone point to demonstrate just how strong polling currently shows her to be. She will be very difficult to beat.

http://openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=3A56B7BD3ACD201C7AEF957C935DD4BB?diaryId=687

[rinsd]

1. Poor Chris, its killing him to write that.

[SaveElmer]

2. At least he isn't denying their accuracy...

Or making bogus comparisons to 2004, or claiming Hillary is having them rigged, or some other such nonsense...

[beachmom]

5. I agree that 2004 is a bad analogy with 2008. n/t

[Adelante]

4. Haha

My exact same thought :D

[bigdarryl]

3. Remember Dean appeared to be strenthening also FUCK this talk....

to me in Jan or Dec. what every the hell the primaries will start.