WP: Dan Balz's Take
At the Breaking Point?
South Carolina Republican chairman Katon Dawson won his moment in the political limelight today by shifting his state's GOP primary to Jan. 19, 2008. But in doing so, he may have put the entire tradition of the presidential nominating system at risk. South Carolina's move is almost certain to trigger other changes in the calendar. The issue is how much the current system can be bent and stretched and warped before it finally breaks apart.
That is what elected officials and state party leaders in states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Michigan, Florida and South Carolina should be thinking about as they contemplate how to react to Dawson's announcement today.
Tradition, self-interest and pure envy have shaped the 2008 calendar and they ultimately could be the system's undoing. At some point there is likely to be rebellion against a process that forces voters to begin picking presidential nominees 10 months or more before the general election. Can any state official truly justify asking voters to think seriously about presidential politics in the calendar year before the presidential election -- and in the middle of the holiday season to boot? That now appears distinctly possible if New Hampshire feels crowded by South Carolina and moves to early January and Iowa feels crowded by New Hampshire and moves into December.
All of these moves seem logical to those who make the decisions. After all, they are only preserving tradition. Iowa reserves the right to schedule the first presidential caucuses. New Hampshire state law requires that the Granite State hold the first primary in the nation. And for many years, that tradition has served the process well. Those two states, however much they do not mirror the demographics of the entire country, have earned their position at the front of the calendar over the years because of their active and engaged electorates....
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Other states are legitimately envious of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and have moved their contests ever earlier to give themselves a larger voice in picking the two nominees. This year's Feb. 5 megaprimary day will be the biggest ever in terms of delegates at stake on a single day -- with the possibility that both parties will effectively select their nominees nine months before Election Day....
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/08/09/now_what.html?hpid=topnews