Rassmussen tracking poll suggests Clinton won this round

[draft_mario_cuomo]

The last national Rasmussen tracking poll was from July 26. Let's compare that with the numbers a week prior.

July 19

Clinton 35%
Obama 28%
Edwards 13%
BO -7 to HRC, +15 over JE

July 22 (day before the debate)

Clinton 39%
Obama 26%
Edwards 12%
BO -13 to HRC, +14 over JE

July 26

Clinton 41%
Obama 23%
Edwards 15%
BO -18 to HRC, +8 over JE

Update: In light of Hedda_foil's post I did a comparison of three day averages. They show a net gain of 3.3 for Clinton over Obama and a net gain of 5 for Edwards vis-a-vis Obama.

Averages for the three days before the debate (which excludes Obama's recent peak of 7/19)

Clinton 39%
Obama 26.3%
Edwards 12.3%

Averages after the debate

Clinton 39.7%
Obama 23.7%
Edwards 14.7%

Change

Clinton +0.7%
Obama -2.6%
Edwards +2.4%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/presidential_tracking_polling_history

[Colobo]

1. Well, when he directly asked the public, the result was different.

Anyway, the true results of this will be seen in the next week or so.

[Cha]

2. I don't really trust that

rasmussen "poll"..am I wrong?

[Jim Sagle]

3. No. Rasmussen is a Republican poll. So naturally they'd favor the Republican candidate.

;)

[draft_mario_cuomo]

6. Rass is one of the few firms that once had Obama leading the national polls

;)

Perhaps not coincidentally, that was before the first debate (the one with the question about a terrorist attack). After that debate Obama's 2 point lead turned into an 8 point deficit.

[WCGreen]

14. I don't see one republican candidate in that bunch...

They are pretty consistent with their methodology while the other poll for hire companies use the universe that the client wants...

[Cha]

18. Naturally~

;)

[snowbear]

9. Do some research on Scott Rasmussen and you won't believe ANYTHING he says!

He's a major quack-job living in a bizarre rightwing Christian compound at Ocean Grove, New Jersey.


Scott FruitCake Rasmussen

When he's not running his wingnut compound, he's working for sites such WorldNetDaily and NewsMAX. He's also the most beloved pollster at Free Republic, the anti-American hate site.

Rasmussen is the author of "GOP Nation, how Republicans will rule for the next 100 years" ....

There are about 2 or DU'ers here who stand by his every word and think he's the most accurate pollster who's ever rolled down the pike.

Remember though --- even a broken watch is correct twice a day.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

11. Yes, but he was the most accurate pollster in 2004 and 2006 and is cited by BO fans

The reason I used him is simple. He is the only one to have done a national poll since the debate.

[snowbear]

12. Mario, the guy is a major LOONIE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He's running a freak'n Waco type compound on the Jersey shore as we speak!

I don't give a crap what someone says about the 2004, 2006 polls.

SCOTT RASMUSSEN has an agenda and he is a sicko!


Rasmussen

Why do you think most reputable media outlets rarely use his polling data?

He's very popular on rightwing sites though.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

15. Let's see what the other polls say. His is the only we can work with right now

Both the HRC and BO camps are claiming victory through their rose-colored views of this. I posted this to put some facts on the table. What Rass shows is not set in stone, which is why I said his polling suggests Clinton won. Perhaps the next national poll will show a jump for Obama. I highly doubt it but I can't rule that out.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

5. The "issue" isn't the real issue (as odd as it sounds)

That is why Obama went down. They may agree with Obama's debate position but he damaged his perception of being a "different kind of politician", which is a key component of his appeal, last week and reinforced the inexperience meme in some minds.

[smalll]

4. Of course she did -

when you get to ask "Whatever happened to the politics of hope?" it's always a good day.

[quinnox]

7. I would be surprised if Obama moves up in polling over this

My guess is polling will stay stable, no big winner or loser in this.

But I could be wrong. lets see what happens in future polls.

[Ethelk2044]

19. Obama will do well.

[hedda_foil]

8. Any single day in a tracking poll is almost meaningless.

The idea is to average the results over a three-day period, and to roll the last of the 3 days off when the new day is added. To track Ras polling for the debate, compare the average for the 3 days prior to the debate to the average for the 3 days after the debate. Because there's been a lot back-and-forth due to the Hilary/Obama spat, it might be worthwhile to also compare the average of Thurs - Sat of this past week to see if it's causing any movement for anyone. I haven't run the averages so I have no idea how the 3-day tracking results will turn out but it would be interesting to see.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

10. Here you go

Averages for the three days before the debate (which excludes Obama's recent peak of 7/19)

Clinton 39%
Obama 26.3%
Edwards 12.3%

Averages after the debate

Clinton 39.7%
Obama 23.7%
Edwards 14.7%

Change

Clinton +0.7%
Obama -2.6%
Edwards +2.4%

[madrchsod]

13. hillary is going to win the primary

there is no doubt about that. it is sad that the democrats do not want fundamental change but a slight correction to the center. nothing will fundamentally change in our society if we elect a centrist candidate. but that maybe what the americans want, just a little change to comfort them.

we need new wine in new bottles

[WCGreen]

16. I think the Americans want change....

All the polls are talking about it...

I think their is an intra party bias toward Clinton because more Democrats are aware of her and her stands on issues...

As we get closer to the actual elections, the whole process will change...

[madrchsod]

17. i hope so

we have lost 8 years and it`s going to take at least that many years to restore what we had in 2000. this country has to change otherwise my children and grand children have a very dark future...i do not wish to die knowing that their lives will be far worse than mine...

[Ethelk2044]

20. She will not win th primary. Like they said on MTP who are they polling

It has been proven before those that lead in the polls does not necessarily win the election. Case in point Kerry, Dean.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

21. Did they have a 20 point lead and lose it on election day?

Dean lost his lead by Iowa and Kerry's lead was within the MoE before the GE.