Despite Polls, it is not really a Horse Race

[illinoisprogressive]

A very good article in ny Times about the race at this point. though the pundits like to pretend it is a horse race right now, in truth, it is not and polls do not mean much of anything right now. All they show is certain trends like if the voters are moving a certain direction, ect.

snip -
For at least a generation, press critics have complained bitterly about the news media’s obsession with polls and the horse-race aspect of the presidential campaign. The constant focus on who is ahead is a pointless distraction, those critics argue, from what should be the real substance of the campaign, like what the candidates would do as president.

But there is another reason to avoid putting too much stock in any assessment of the horse race, more than six months before the voting begins in the Iowa caucuses: It may have very little relationship to the ultimate outcome.

snip

In May of 2003, nobody thought Howard Dean was possible,” said Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster. “By the fall of 2003, the talk was that he was unstoppable. And the common wisdom was wrong at both points.”

By the end of 2003, Mr. Dean was the clear front-runner for the Democrats in some polls. Then, in 2004, the voters entered the equation, and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the eventual nominee, suddenly began to move.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/21/us/politics/21politics.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin

[durrrty libby]

1. No, it's not a horse race when the front runner has already

circled the track

[Dhalgren]

4. Who do you think Senator Clinton will choose as a running mate?

I have heard a great deal of speculation about other candidates, but not about her. Who would be a good match for her as VP?

[durrrty libby]

10. I have not thought about that yet. So many great possibilities

[zulchzulu]

6. Circling the track in the wrong direction doesn't make you win a race

I, however, like the analogy that some think the race is already over because someone ran around the track before the race even began. Nice logic. :crazy:

[durrrty libby]

9. " Circling the track in the wrong direction doesn't make you win a race"

Then you should turn around and go the correct way

[illinoisprogressive]

2. Your thinking is foolish.

[durrrty libby]

11. If a fool calls others foolish, does it matter to anyone?

[MGKrebs]

3. I do think that the process is a legitimate test of some qualities

we should prefer in a president. In other words, the job isn't only about policy positions. The campaign process requires successful candidates to organize an effective team, build coalitions, and develop sophisticated messaging techniques. My feeling is that polls are often a reflection of these qualities rather than an evaluation of policy positions.

[Dhalgren]

5. There is also the aspect of sustained stress that a President must

be able to cope with. A long and heated campaign can give the candidates that kind of test. History is full of candidates that couldn't manage the stress of the campaign and so were probably not ready for the WH. Muskie comes to mind, but I am sure there are plenty of other examples.

[MGKrebs]

7. Good point. n/t

[underpants]

8. US News had a fantastic article about how Dean was done in Iowa weeks before the caucuses

and the only people who didn't know it where the press and therefore the public. Look it up it was a great article.

[PurityOfEssence]

12. The primary season will only last five weeks

Isn't that scary? Isn't that STUPID? The race is on NOW, and using previous years as parallels becomes a bit dodgy. There really wasn't that much movement in the last primary season either, since it was also fairly top-loaded, but this won't allow much change at all.