Putting aside specific candidates ... what red state is most likely to flip to blue in 08?

[Stinky The Clown]

This is NOT a thread about candidates. It is a thread asking about public sentiment and mood and desire for change.

What red state is, in your view, most likely to flip in the next cycle? Why do you think so?

[TwilightGardener]

1. Nebraska!

:rofl:

[dmallind]

19. Just for a moment

Reading down the list of posts I actually thought you were serious there.

Sorry.

[TwilightGardener]

20. Actually, it's not TOTALLY beyond the realm of possibility, depending

on who gets nominated for various offices--but unlikely. Purple, maybe. We do have Ben Nelson and a Dem mayor in Omaha (Mike Fahey).

[dmallind]

26. Gosh I wish I had your optimism

I thought the US Rep race out West had a shot too. Heck I thought we might just even lose Fortenberry in the East what with this being where all the "darn pinko Lincoln liberals" live.

I suppose it's a tiny thin possibility if a centrist Dem like Richardson or maybe just maybe HRC gets nominated that we could piss off the social conservatives enough with pics of Giuliani in a dress and his old speeches about gay rights and gun control so they don;t show up if he gets the Rep. nod, but I suspect he's thought of that already and has enough money to convince them and their brethren in other states he's a "real conservative". Other than that I can't think of a possible matchup that would make NE go blue. A lot can happen of course, and I doubt the margin will be as high as before, but I'd not bet at anything below 100-1 odds right now.

Course we don;t exactly have enough EV clout for much effort to be spent here when so many states could be tilted more easily. OH should be a lock unless the nominee screws it up, and FL's a tossup too among the big boys. Heck even TX has a shot, and I'd put money there before NE if I were the DNC.

[TwilightGardener]

37. I don't know--Howard Dean was out here recently--he's not willing

to concede that this state will be forever red. Imagine if Bruning the Nazi Neocon Boy Wonder wins the GOP Senate primary--there might be an opportunity for a Dem to beat his smarmy pants off, depending on who steps up. Jeff Fortenberry is my Rep too--I don't usually follow what he's up to in the House, but next go-round he might be a little more vulnerable for always being a faithful Bushbot, what with Lincoln being a little more progressive and all.

[dmallind]

39. From your mouth to ...well whoever's ears!

I hope you're right obviously, but in a state where a 95% Bush rubberstamp war hero can be called a "traitor" and a "Democrat in sheep's clothing" almost every day for months in the paper because he criticized the war I'm not sure if Bruning wouldn't actually do BETTER. There's just so much entrenched Republican=Good Democrat=Bad here IMO that it may take a couple of cycles at least to break that even with the godawfulness of the current regime helping us out,

[TwilightGardener]

41. You're right about Hagel--how anyone so conservative can be thought

of as a "Democrat in sheep's clothing", or a traitor (a combat vet!), is an indication of how absolutely nutso these folks can be out here. I don't read the LTTE anymore (especially the OWH), because the constant daily bashing of him actually made me feel too sorry for him, if you can believe it. Pretty bad when you feel sympathy for a 'Pub. I am dreading Bruning, I really hope we are spared that disaster.

[EFerrari]

2. Ohio -- with the caveat that it wasn't red in the first place just stolen.

I hope OH democrats get their votes counted in 08. We should send teams out there to make sure they do. :mad:

[Deep13]

7. New sec. of state is on it. nt

[eppur_se_muova]

9. Exactamundo.

And many of the people who did the stealing are in jail, or headed that way. The public is pretty disgusted with the old Repug boys' club, and equally disgusted with the old-school Democrats who didn't do enough to contest the election.

[EFerrari]

29. Go, Ohio!

:applause:

[Oreo]

3. If you're talking the 2008 Presidential Elections

Colorado is a shoe-in to go Blue.

We won the state government last year. We'll also switch to 2 Dem Senators after Allard retires and Udall takes his seat.

2008 will be a great year for Colorado

[catmandu57]

4. Missouri

We'll still have that national embarrassment bond, but, people here are sick of reptiles, especially our governor baby doc blunt, he's fucked us over time and again, it's a wonder there haven't been massive die offs of the poor, sick, and elderly here.
I think it's pretty safe to say we're flipping to blue and will stay that way for quite some time.

[Deep13]

5. Ohio

Last year the Ds picked up U.S. Senate, governor/lt. gov, sec. of state, atty. general, treasurer, at least one Congressional seat and a few state legislative seats.

[NavyDavy]

6. Ohio I hope

[Nedsdag]

8. If Hillary's the nominee,

then the answer is zero.

[Stinky The Clown]

10. Thanks for keeping with the spirit of the OP

[Nedsdag]

14. I apologize.

I read your thread too fast.

Does Missouri make you happy?

[William769]

12. Thanks for proving me right!

:rofl:

[NavyDavy]

13. whatever....free republic is waiting for you to return

[Clark2008]

15. The poster has a valid point in the minds of more than just Freepers.

[Nedsdag]

17. Just because I don't support HRC

doesn't mean I'm a freeper.

If you believe that then I cannot change your mind.

[davidwparker]

32. the truest thing that I've read today. I for one will write in Gore if Hillary

is the nominee. I'm in the red state of VA. The Clintons will get no help from me to retake the White House. Enough of them.

[Clark2008]

11. I can't answer that because I think the two are tied.

We have to have the right candidate in order to flip any given red state.

[William769]

16. Florida, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, Nevada

And possibly a couple more.

[Stinky The Clown]

21. I'm not sure about Tennessee ......

I agree with the others being possibilities. Tennessee, as I see it, is very much candidate dependent.

[William769]

22. I know (Tennessee).

But I still keep my hopes up for my alma mater.

[SoxFan]

18. Iowa and New Mexico

Still can't figure out how we botched those last time.

Ohio, Florida, and Arkansas are also on the short list.

[NoodleBoy]

23. Iowa and New Mexico. they barely went blue in 00, and barely went red in 04, and now they've got

resurgent democratic parties there, with each a candidate who may end up on the ticket in 08.

The next tier is Missouri; third tier down, and I know nobody wants to think this, is Ohio, then Florida, in that order. Reason being is the MO Republican party is on its heals right now and will be carrying the banner of an unpopular governor against a state party that's starting to sit up. Ohio is next because, although we made some good gains there in 06, the state Republican party is still pretty strong. Florida barely makes the list this time, and is the least likely to flip, because it now has a popular Republican governor, a still strong state Republican party, a still disorganized state Democratic party, and elected Democratic officials who might be considered popular but almost never take firm stands and never use their popularity to help others.

Colorado is a wildcard. It'll be months before you can peg it in either the second or third tier, but it's definitely not in the first. It depends on who's on the ticket (Richardson or Vilsak would help), who the Republican nominee for Senate and President is, and how the state reacts to the convention in Denver. Complete wildcard.

[Capn Sunshine]

44. seconded

Iowa and New Mexico, definitely

[Hippo_Tron]

24. Ohio

We have an advantage there now that we have the Governor's mansion. Plus the new Democratic Secretary of State will make sure that the votes are counted.

[Staph]

25. West Virginia

We've got two D senators, two out of three Congressmen, the governor, both state houses.... I think the votes for Bush (twice! on behalf of my state, allow me to apologize, even if I voted for Gore and Kerry) were an aberration. I'm hearing a lot of disgusted talk in gas stations and grocery stores and other places where folks talk easily to strangers.

[thatsrightimirish]

27. New Mexico

I think that's fairly obvious considering it went blue in 2000 by a slim margin and red in 04 by a slim margin. The climate is not good for Republicans so I think at least for now NM will go blue in 08.

[The Magistrate]

28. Ohio Is Certain For Us, Sir

The kind of scandalous implosion its state Republican party has undergone recently will always turn the voting sentiment in a national election for several successive runs. Indeed, in '04, it was only the criminal management of its electoral machinery by Blackwell that put the place into the enemy camp at all, and those levers are in our hands now.

[EFerrari]

30. I so hope you're right. What we all witnessed on election night

2004 was a crime against voters in Ohio.

The thing that disturbs me is that the Cabal doesn't seem very concerned about 2008. Am I missing something? They don't even have a viable candidate. Are they planning to steal FL again and to steal here and there in other states like NM, PA, CO, etc, to make up the difference?

[The Magistrate]

33. They Are Going To Lose, Ma'am

The enemy is not twelve feet tall, even if his shadow my be, from certain angles....

[EFerrari]

35. In a fair fight, I couldn't agree more, Sir. But I've given up

underestimating their creative criminality.

My hope is that the election reform movement has developed a good enough infrastructure to impede their thievery. I believe we have -- but also believe we must be vigilant and active.

[Hippo_Tron]

47. In Ohio the Governor and Secretary of State are both Democrats

I don't see how the GOP could possibly steal it in that state. Florida still concerns me, but Crist at least appears to be better than Jeb. We'll see.

[avrdream]

34. I hope those levers are in FAIR hands now.

I do believe that Ohio actually went blue in the last 2 elections but the stolen, criminal machinery prevented blue as a final result.

Colorado for sure. Many others that are close.

[saltpoint]

49. Agree. The Buckeye State flips blue and stays blue for some time to come.

[fasttense]

31. Tennessee

There are many former repukes who have been hit by high inflation, gas prices and loss of factory jobs. They are not happy and I think are willing to vote against the elite republics. But the earlier poster may be right, it may depends on who the Democratic nominee will be. There are a far amount of bigots and sexists living in Tennessee, unfortunately. But if the economy gets much worse here they may not care.

[conscious evolution]

36. Georgia

People are pissed here.Tired of having family friends and nieghbors fucked-up in Iraq.Tired of squeezing every penny.Tired of being sick and tired.
Unfortunately,Repukes control the election machinery here.
What the fuck happened to our country.

On another note the US Social Justice Forum is going to be in ATL later this month.Hopefully this will shake things up here.

[onenote]

38. A clarification question: What are we defining as a "red" state?

A state that went for chimpy in 2004? Even if that state has a Democratic governor, or one or more Democratic Senators?

There are deep red states, red states and sort of pinkish-purple states. Obviously, states that have elected one or more Democrats to a statewide office are one's that are ripe for picking. That would include Virginia (Dem Gov and Dem Senator) to name just one.

[Stinky The Clown]

43. I'm defining them, for this thread, as states that went for Gin Blossom George last time.

[Uncle Joe]

40. Tennessee. n/t

[derby378]

42. Texas

Dallas County, a major Bush stronghold, flipped bluish last year, and many Repukes are still scratching their heads trying to figure it out.

[Awsi Dooger]

45. This would be my order

* New Mexico - it probably voted for Kerry in '04, even in an election Bush won nationally by more than 2.5 points, minus the machine screwups that eliminated thousands of votes

* Iowa - a state we narrowly lost to an incumbent but by less than the national margin, so the partisan index remains on our side; '08 figures to tilt generically our way nationwide, so that yanks Iowa

* Ohio - definitely wants to trend our way, but that can be ruined via an unfavorable general election matchup. Still a more conservative state than people want to believe, on the federal level

* Nevada - slight blue partisan index in '04 (state popular vote percentage compared to national margin). That means we can probably carry Nevada if we win the national popular vote. Still, the Democratic base in Clark County is not as reliable as the cow counties or red northern Nevada. And the Hispanic numbers are not showing up at the polls; too many are not citizens or not yet 18.

* Florida - too much pessimism here. It leans only about 1.5 to 2 points red, which can easily be overcome. Problem is the state economy has been very good compared to the rest of the nation, which provides a benefit of a doubt to the ruling party, which has been the GOP in the White House and Florida gov mansion

* Colorado - huge move our way from '00 to '04, shifting from about 9 points GOP-leaning in the partisan index to only a few. Looks like the trend has continued but I'll have to see a presidential result before I'm overly confident

* Virginia - steady blue move in the northern counties. State is starting to be comfortable voting for Democrats. But Virginia still figures to be about 3-4 points red at base instinct in '08. It will take either a substantial nationwide Democratic popular vote victory, or a favorite son like Mark Warner in the VP slot, to swing the state our way

* Missouri - I'm not as confident as others here. Percentage of self-identified conservatives is high, 37% in the '06 exit poll. That is the single best guideline to judge how likely a state is to switch partisanship. Gore and Kerry lost every state with at least 35% self-identifed conservatives

* Arkansas - See Missouri, only worse. Very, very high percentage of self-identified conservatives, in the 40% range. We would need to carry the national popular vote by high margin, probably 4% or greater, to sway Arkansas.

* West Virginia - the local voting patterns and party ID numbers still favor Democrats, but self-identified conservatives are suddenly high in number. I don't see this state returning to our fold any time soon. If it does it's irrelevant since it means we are carrying the country by landslide

[dbackjon]

46. Suprised no one has mentioned ARIZONA

Two-term popular Democratic Govenor, voted Clinton in 1996. Two House seats flipped to the good side in 2006. Lots of people sick and tired of pukes out here.

[NoodleBoy]

53. Arizona is still a deep red, and you can forget about us going blue for the next 20 years if McCain

gets the nomination. Just having him run for President makes the state deeper red; we'll probably stay red until he retires.

The state party and the popularity of our local Dems aren't strong enough to turn us blue while he's still in office.

[BlueIris]

48. I still think it'll be North Carolina.

They were robbed in '04 and they know it.

[mnhtnbb]

51. I second NC--IF Edwards is TOP of the ticket

Any other candidate at top will not turn NC--or any of the Southern states.

[More Than A Feeling]

50. Ohio and Iowa each had massive Democratic gains on the state level

in 2006. Colorado's another one. Win those three and its back to the white house!

[otohara]

52. Rocky Mt. High

Colorado....just like we did in 92