TPMCafe: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Hillary in South Carolina

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/electioncentral/2007/apr/10/poll_obama_holds_big_lead_over_hillary_in_south_carolina

Poll: Obama Holds Big Lead Over Hillary In South Carolina
By Greg Sargent

South Carolina political reporter Lee Bandy writes about a new poll by Insider Advantage with a surprising finding: Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton by 14 points, 34% to 20%.

"The Illinois senator’s showing represents a complete turnaround for Obama who trailed in earlier South Carolina surveys," Bandy writes. "What is worrisome for the Clinton campaign is that she is in danger of slipping into third place in South Carolina. The poll shows that former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is only three percentage points away from overtaking Clinton."

Half of the South Carolina primary electorate is African American. Such poll findings suggest that the Dems' upcoming debate in South Carolina on April 26 may be even more crucial -- and even more closely watched, too.

[flpoljunkie]

1. First Dem debate is scheduled for April 26 in South Carolina, moderated by NBC's Brian Williams

[youngdem]

2. Hillary is in a free fall of sorts

She already has name saturation...EVERYONE already has an opinion of her, and she really isn't doing to good of a job of changing perceptions of her. Her gestures just come across as staged and are often simply following the leadership of other candidates.

I think she would make a fine president (withholding judgment on her Iraq stance) but she does a poor job of marketing herself to undecideds.

[Tellurian]

8. Hillary trounces Obama by almost 20pts nationwide!

Gallup: Hillary the "dominant frontrunner" for Democratic nomination...

Beating Obama 2 to 1

Hillary 38
Obama 19
Edwards 15
Gore 14

Sen. Hillary Clinton remains the dominant presidential front-runner among Democrats nationally, with twice the support as her nearest challenger. Sen. Barack Obama, former Sen. John Edwards, and former Vice President Al Gore are tightly bunched in second place, with all other candidates in low single digits. If Gore is removed from the ballot and his supporters' second-place choices substituted, Clinton's lead becomes even more dominant, with Obama and Edwards tied far behind.

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27163

[Colobo]

10. That's not what Rasmussen says

34 to 29.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

13. What dominance

Iowa: 3rd (she was 4th before Vilsack dropped out)
New Hampshire: 1st, but losing ground to Obama and Edwards who are poised to overtake her
South Carolina: 2nd, in danger of falling to 3rd

Kerry was at 7% in the national polls before he won in Iowa. 2004 Democratic nominee Howard Dean had a "dominant" lead in the national polls. I think Clark was second and Kerry was third or fourth, possibly also trailing Gephardt at the time.

[Tellurian]

15. I don't get what you're trying to say..

Hillary is not Kerry? what?

[draft_mario_cuomo]

16. State polls trump national polls at this point

Kerry was nowhere in the national polls before Iowa and he easily won the nomination. Why? The momentum generated by winning in Iowa. Moreover, he was always much stronger in Iowa and NH than he was in the national polls. HRC is much weaker than national polls suggest--look at her performance in SC, NH, and Iowa. Conversely, Obama and Edwards are much stronger than the national polls suggest. Let's see how the national polls look after Iowa. Remember what happened to the "front-runner" who finished 3rd in Iowa last time? HRC conceivably could finish a weak 3rd there and see her "dominance" nationally evaporate overnight.

[Tellurian]

19. But then again..

Hillary may turn your logic on it head. You are traveling in Never Never land, my friend.
Hillary's candidacy is a first- so can I actually use your comparisons as good examples?

The country is embracing her with both arms. well, except for here..

[jaysunb]

3. This should not be a surprise...

Sen Clinton will not get a free pass in any of the primary states...

[Doctor_J]

4. I don't see how either of them can lose the GE, frankly

Hil will mobilize the Dem machine like no one since JFK, and Obama has WJC's and JFK's charisma without all of their baggage. It's good to be a Dem right now.

[ElizabethDC]

6. I agree! and I love your positivity

DU needs more of it! It *is* good to be a Dem right now!

[Colobo]

5. Beautiful!

[PresidentObama]

7. Good for him. But it's way too early for these polls to be taken seriously.

They're a great indication of the current situation however. And I'm glad Obama is where he is. I have a feeling this is going to be a very interesting race. Let the best man/woman win!! If that's Obama, I'll get ready to plaster the "Obama For President" bumper sticker on my car.

[RiverStone]

9. Great news!

The notion that Hillary is the "presumptive favorite" is slowly but surely being chipped away.

IMHO, this trend will continue - I would not be surprised to find her in 3rd place in a majority of polls by Fall. I'd vote for Obama and Edwards, respectively - over HRC anyway.

[elizm]

11. I'm from South Carolina...

...And I have been saying this for a couple of months... that Hillary supporters in South Carolina are hard to find. I never have believed she was the front runner because of the tremendous support for Obama that I have seen firsthand here. And South Carolina is the 3rd primary...so we are SOMEWHAT important, although I am sure there are many who would like to dismiss us. I will see Obama for the second time this Friday in Florence, SC. Can't wait to see the numbers after our debate here at the end of this month! :)

[flpoljunkie]

12. Bandy mentioned Obama will conduct a noon community health meeting in Florence on Friday

Would very much be interested to hear your first hand report.

[elizm]

17. I will be there as a volunteer!

Obama's website says, however, that it is a community meeting on Education and it IS being held at a high school in Florence. I'll be HAPPY to give you a first hand report as soon as I get home on Friday night...with pictures too...if I can figure out how to post them here! :)

[flpoljunkie]

18. Will look forward to it. I only know how to post photos that are already in jpg form on the web.

Perhaps you can just pull them from your desktop onto your post, if they are in jpg form. Am sure someone here on DU can tell you exactly what to do.

[Czolgosz]

14. GO OBAMA GO!