Which southern states can Kerry win?

[ringmastery]

He can win Florida. The question is WILL he win with Brother Shrub in office and his good ol' boy network?

He may have a chance in Virginia because of his strong military history and the liberal DC suburbs. Regardless, he should compete there so Bush spends some money.

I really don't see where else he may win, but he should spend some time and money in Louisiana and Arkansas as well. North Carolina too, but only if Edwards is his VP.

Those are 5 good southern states to spend some money and time in.

The rest of the south probably has to be written off. If Gore couldn't win Tennessee, Kerry can't.

[Zynx]

1. By himself, none. With John Breaux, here's how I see it.

LA is in the bag then and AR is coming our way then. He might also help you win Florida.

[King of New Orleans]

12. Breaux

would mean two Catholics on the ticket (assuming Kerry is the nominee) for that matter I believe Clark is Catholic too (though he mostly attends church with his wife, Episcopalian (sp) ).

Would two Catholics on the ticket be too much? Or has the country moved past that?

Also, Breaux is pretty much against abortion, though he's never shown any inclination to go after Roe vs Wade (which incidently is the stance of virtually everybody who wins the state elections here, the hard core anti-abortionists end up losing by narrow margins).

[MisterC2003]

2. Georgia might swing

It's not as locked up as it appears. Went for Clinton. We've got our yahoos in pickups with Confederate flags who'll never vote for any candidate who's not agin the niggers, but we've got a lot of people who are more clear-headed than that and will vote their pocketbooks. And their pocketbooks are hurting.

[Zynx]

3. It went massive for Bush and kicked out the Dems in 2002 in a huge way

People always make the mistake of thinking that Georgia is a moderate southern state. It isn't.

[Atlant]

4. If you're referring to the CSA, NONE of them.

If you're using the Confederate States of America
as your definition of "the South", then Kerry will
win precisely none of these states.

If you use a more-liberal definition of "those
states south of the Mason-Dixon line", then Kerry
may manage to drag a red state or two back into the
blue camp. How fixed will Florida be? Who knows!
Arkansas? Maybe. Texas? NFW. West Virginia? Tenessee?
Maybe.

Atlant

[MarianJack]

5. West Virginia

Before 2000,WV only voted rethuglican in presidential elections when it was a '72 or '84 level of landslide.

WV will come back to our fold in '04!

[spooky3]

7. Why do you consider WV a "southern" state? It is not south of the

Mason-Dixon line, right? It was not part of the Confederacy. All other states on parallel with it are considered Northern.

[DjTj]

20. The Mason-Dixon line is between Maryland and Pennsylvania...

...but because of the Civil War, Maryland and West Virginia are not Southern States because they were not part of the Confederacy and did not go through Reconstruction.

[mohc]

22. Actually it is

The straight north border that WV shares with PA that continues on into MD is the Mason-Dixon line. The census definition of the south includes WV, MD, and DE. However, because of those states voting records, they tend to be classified as mid-Atlantic when it comes to politics.

[Atlant]

24. Folks have advanced the argument that Princeton, NJ is the...

Folks have advanced the argument that Princeton, NJ is the
northern-most "Southern" City. And based on cultural arguments,
one could give some credence to that idea.

Atlant

[felonious thunk]

6. There's several in which he may have a shot

West Virginia should be a win, traditional Democratic state, blue collar, economy is hurting under Bush.

Virginia appears to really be in flux right now. The highly populated North is more Democratic every election, and the depressed southwestern part of the state went for Democratic governor Mark Warner. Virginia is questionable, but may be in play.

North Carolina, with or without Edwards on the ticket, could be close. It's economy has taken a big hit and Bush isn't wildly popular. Turnout would have to be overwhelming in the urban areas of the state, but it's possible.

Tennessee is in play. The 2000 election in TN was as much a reaction against Gore as for Bush. Record turnout in the primary, and their economy has hardly flurished under Bush.

Arkansas narrowly went to Bush in 2000, and it will certainly be up for grabs this year. Clark could make a difference here, but it certainly could swing Democratic with just a couple hundred thousand people changing their minds.

Florida is anyone's guess. Clearly the state is about evenly split, and regardless of the Bush network there, I expect it will be just about as close as last time around.

[Toronto Ron]

8. FL looks good if Graham VP

The wife of a good friend of mine is a centrist Floridian; she says Bob Graham is adored in Florida, MUCH more so than Jeb.

[Cheswick2.0]

9. none

[wadestock]

10. The key is choice of VP

This election is won now based on choice of VP.

Kerry chooses someone off the wall, and the election could be lost.

Edwards or Clark would make the difference....it's really that simple....and for the concern you mention...to pick up the crucial southern potential.

We lost the last time based on bad choice of VP....will it happen again?

[Atlant]

11. VP won't matter. No Democrat will win *ANY* CSA states in '04. (NT)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. Confederate States of America?

hoo boy, no wonder we keep losing throwing around names like that.

[jmoss]

14. with JRE on his side...many!!!

...but without, the ridiculous Replican ingnorance down here will be asking HIM to "not let the door hit 'em on the way out".

We truly need John Edwards on the ticket. Otherwise I fear another Mike Dukakis showing come November.

[jmaier]

16. This is hard to figure

JRE isn't carrying the southern states during a Dem primary, other than SC. He lost handily in VA and barely fought off Clark for 2nd in TN. Which states is it exactly where his overwhelming Southern popularity is going to carry the day?

[jmoss]

18. What you are missing is....

Exit polls have shown that John Edwards has more support with Independents & Repug's than Kerry. The ticket needs someone who can both offset the notion that Kerry is "just a liberal from MA", who is a strong campaigner, and if that person is JRE, has momentum & name recognition in the hard to win States, such as Oklahoma, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia.

Without this balance, we're likely to see another Mike Dukakis showing. Kerry will onl;y win the "Democratic States", such as MA, NY, WA, CA, etc. But will allow GW to sweep the whole damn South and Midwest again. If Edwards or Clark don't end up on this ticket, Kerry's people are SERIOUSLY letting ego get in the way of a potentially dominating approach to taking back the White House. We simply CAN't go risky with this election (i.e. Joe Lieberman, or Geraldine Ferraro). Great Americans, but duds inthe heartland, and in the South.

So far, we only know how popular John Kerry is among more hard-core, ultr-involved Democrats. For example, only 5% of registered voters took part in the Michigan Caucuses. What the hell does that tell us about how he'll do in a general election.

This whole John Kerry, front-runner thing, is a media-hype. We must NOT take it out of context, though, and think it means he can pick some weak running mate, and guarentee to us that he can win!

[DjTj]

21. Edwards is popular where Kerry is not...

...in the rural communities and among Southern conservatives.

I would argue that almost all Kerry primary voters would vote for Edwards in the general election while there are many Edwards primary voters that will not vote for Kerry in the general election.

[Bombtrack]

15. He needs Bob Graham to be his vp. North Carolina will never go for Kerry

Nor will any other southern states other than Florida in all probability.

This is all if he gets the nomination, I still think Edwards could pull off an upset

[jmoss]

19. Edwards on Jay Leno . friday Night

......Let the upset commence!!!!

[DoNotRefill]

17. Massachucetts....

and Maryland, if he works for it.

Kerry's got as much chance in Virginia and points south as Sharpton does. It ain't gonna happen.

[Atlant]

23. And Massachusetts isn't exactly a certainty *THIS* afternoon! (NT)