If Gore doesn't get into the race and Hagel does, Hagel wins.

[blm]

He assured that for himself today. Even Keith Olbermann gave him all the time in the world by replaying much of his senate hearings arguments on Iraq.

Even Jim Webb was talking fondly of his 30 year friendship with Hagel today.

I think Hagel will end up winning the Iraq debate against any of the expected nominees at this point.

He has his chops down already. And he'll get the crucial Independent vote.

I can also see him angling for a Unity ticket.

He's good at maneuvering, that's obvious.

Unless Gore or Clark can outmaneuver him.

[DaveinMD]

1. Hagel

will not win his party nomination. If he runs as an independent, he won't be able to compete.

[Tin Man]

8. I disagree - Hagel could well get the Repub nom.

As fucked-up as Iraq has become, it's only gonna get worse, much worse, under the remainder of W's watch.

By the time 2008 rolls around, even Joe RedState is gonna be screaming to get our troops outta there - and Hagel is gonna look like the next coming of the Messiah.

[DaveinMD]

9. I disagree

the Republican primary voter does not have much sanity. They are true believers and they aren't part of the reality based community. I think Newt Gingrich will end up as their nominee.

[Ninja Jordan]

13. I think both of you are wrong!

Neither Newt nor Hagel will garner the GOP nomination.

[Tin Man]

16. Good one, ninja!

play the odds! LOL

[DaveinMD]

19. you could be right

I hope its not one of their governors.

[Tin Man]

15. Lotta disagreeing, LOL...

I dunno, I just have a sense that after 2 more years of Iraq stalemate, even the most thick-skulled, militant Publican voters are gonna see the folly of "staying the course" and be looking for a change.

Iraq is becoming radioactive.

[blm]

23. I agree - plus, alot of Dems/GOPs are calling themselves Independents these days.

.

[fujiyama]

24. You overestimate the intelligence of the republican primary voter

Remember they put Bush up as their candidate.

And have voted for lunatics like Robertson and Buchanan in NH and IA.

[DemKR]

2. I'm truly worried about this too

I think Hagel is going to end up running as an independent. I applaud him for his bravery on the war to buck his party, but really, on every other issue he has been a rubber stamp conservative. I'm worried that he might get the die hard anti-war (Cindy Sheehan crowd) voters unless the Democrat is as staunchly anti-war as he is.

I mean, we want the anti-war conservatives/moderates to vote for us...not a 3rd party candidate.

[tnlefty]

14. Welcome to DU, DemKR!

Hope that you enjoy it here.

[blm]

18. I think many Republicans are calling themselves Independents now, too.

You couple that with moderate Repubs and a heavy Independent vote, and old-fashoined conservative Repubs and he can win.

[illinoisprogressive]

3. Hagel is concidered a traitor by his own party. They never liked him for not

being far right. They see him as too moderate. He cannot win if his party hates him and won't vote for him.

[Just-plain-Kathy]

37. I would vote for a moderate independent, before a hawkish corporate Dem

I hope it never comes to us running with hawkish corporate dem.

[ruggerson]

4. He can't win the GOP nomination

no way in hell.

[Tin Man]

10. I disagree - see #8 above for my logic.

[KingofNewOrleans]

5. Unity ticket won't win anything

doubt such a thing will exist anyway.

Hagel has to get the nomination thru the Republican primary and I don't see that happening. In fact I don't see him running.

That is all.

[snowbear]

6. General Clark could debate Hagel right UNDER THE TABLE ...

Of ye of little faith!

[blm]

20. That's why I mention Clark....if Dems can make it happen.

.

[Ninja Jordan]

7. Hagel is the GOP's Joe Lieberman. He would not win their nomination.

[tnlefty]

11. I've been telling my spouse for a couple of weeks that he should

be more concerned about Hagel, should he decide to run, that spouse's usual concern with McCain. Hagel is looking more like a maveric than McCain, and he will appeal to the more sane repukes because of his opposition to Iraq, and his standing up and speaking strongly against it, while still being conservative.

[Telly Savalas]

12. Where's the "Senators Can't Win" delegation?

They always seem to come out of the woodwork when one of our people gets mentioned, why not for Hagel?

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

17. Hagel is a stealth candidate. He's the guy who's supposed to finish off the Dem candidate.

It's getting clearer that McCain has been punk'd. MKJ

[blitzen]

21. Hagel voted AGAINST minimum wage increase...

He's with us on Iraq...Against us on everything else. In sum, he's a Repuke

[fujiyama]

22. Hagel will not in a million years

get the republican nomination.

I'm amused that anyone is afraid of republicans nominating him. Have you seen what they've been saying about him over the years? He's been a boot-licker when it comes to policy and legislation, almost always giving Bush what he has wanted.

But he's been a very vocal critic for MANY years now over Bush's foreign policy. They guy's foreign policy does not really agree with the neocons. He endorsed McCain in '00 as well. I'm sure he's partially hated for that.

They want someone loyal and they want to remind people as much as possible about 9/11. That's why they love Rudy...Though, his opponents in the primaries will have a field day with him.

People have to remember, that Bush's base IS the republican primary. That 28% of the country will vote for the nominee.

Hagel can run as an indie, but where will he get cash? He'd be an interesting candidate, but in the end he'd probably screw over the Dem, by splitting the anti-war vote - taking most moderates and independents (giving a strong showing as an indie, but still not enough to win), especially if Hillary is the nominee.

[KoKo]

25. Hagel is interesting...but I won't vote if I have to vote Repug in '08

So...just consider this DU'er a "Gone Fishing." I won't do it. And I haven't missed a vote since I was 18 when I cast my first vote. Just call me PARTISAN!

[blm]

26. I wouldn't vote for Hagel if he was the ONLY choice on the ballot.

But, I'm not the average American who only casually gets involved every four years.

[KoKo]

28. Remember when DU'ers were hoping Kerry would choose McCain

as his running mate? I think newbie DU'ers get enthralled with candidates who "just come out of the starting gate as the lead." It takes awhile to see what the "Front Runners" are all about...after the MSCorporate Media goes at them and if they survive.

Education about candidates is more important TODAY than EVER!

My worry is that either Kerry dropped out because of Hillary or because of Biden and Dodd from CT...

I'd like to think he knows Gore will come in...but it's a long shot for that possibility and I think Kerry was looking at the current field and got the word from Hillary/Obama and BIG BILL... Not to be cynical...but I am these days.

[blm]

29. He actually wants to concentrate on stopping the war and is devoting all his energy to it

because he believes the war is about to widen.

You won't hear that from the media assholes but that's the truth, and fits Kerry's lifetime moral code of doing what he can to end immoral wars.

[KoKo]

33. Well. then I'm glad for him that he's concentrating on his Senatorial Efforts. n/t

[blm]

40. he intends to end this war before it widens. A commitment few would make in

their hurry to play their power trip games.

[wtmusic]

27. Hagel speaks with authority, he means what he says,

he's a real live war hero (who's outspoken against the war), and he's one of the true straight arrows left on the national political stage.

And I disagree completely with half of the positions he takes.

[Strelnikov_]

30. Is Hagel setting himself up to be the Lincoln of the party that emerges

from the remains of the modern day Whigs?

a.k.a. the GOP.

The party was ultimately destroyed by the question of whether to allow the expansion of slavery to the territories. Deep fissures in the party on this question led the party to run Winfield Scott over its own incumbent President Fillmore in the U.S. presidential election of 1852. The Whig Party never elected another President. Its leaders quit politics (as Lincoln did temporarily) or changed parties. The voter base defected to the nativist Know-Nothing Party, Republican Party, various coalition parties in some states, and even to the Democrats.


I am at a loss to figure out what Hagel's game is. I do not see how his Iraq occupation position helps him win the Reich nomination considering 67% of the Reich acolytes still 'support' the occupation, and these represent the most likely to participate in the primary.

The only two conclusions I can draw are:

- He is setting up for an 'Independent Republican' run, or

- He is that rarest of breeds, an honest Reich politician. One who is putting the good of the nation, as he sees it, ahead of his political career.

[Imagevision]

31. Neocons will say no to Hagel and Yes to McCain... got to keep that war going!!

[Imagevision]

32. One must remember, this country was founded by big business and big business

will always continue to run it...

[KoKo]

34. Okay...your've moved on from Kerry to supporting Hagel?

that's a BIG JUMP, blm. I hope you know what you are doing.

[Mass]

35. Not what she said. She said Hagel was dangerous and that

she hoped Gore or Clark would come in the race.

[blm]

39. That's ridiculous. Not even CLOSE to what I said.

Read it again. It's a warning about the way things can turn out if Gore doesn't run, or Dems keep ignoring Clark.

[saracat]

36. Hagel is terrible.The only good thing is his anti war stance.I would

vote for a ham sandwich rather than Hagel. Hagel has no respect for women, gays , minorities or the poor.He is a rat bastard.I don't care what he thinks about the war.

[Bucky]

42. Quit holding back, Saracat. How do you *really* feel?

Seriously, tho, thanks for the timely reminder. This board tends to rush into flings from time to time based on single issues or splashy performances. McCain got lots of favorable comments on DU when he was giving shit to Bush over campaign finance reform. He was still a con-jobber. In the past year DUers have gone gaga over paleo-libertarian anti-choice flake Ron Paul, the Snowe-Collins Enablement Twins, ankle-grabber Alen Spectre, and Arkansas fundy Governor Mike Huckabee. Now Hagel is grandstanding on one issue when it's nearly too late to do any good for all the people fixing to die for Bush's arrogance and everyone seems to forget who owns a big slice of Diebold.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well, can't get fooled again.

[blm]

43. heheh...I agree - but we're not Mr. and Mrs. Casual American Voter, either.

.

[Leilani]

38. Republicans, those who do organization,

hate Hagel as much as they hate McCain.

The right wing fundies have lots of power in the party, & neither Hagel or McCain want to talk about religion.

[Infinite Hope]

41. I've said for some time he'll be the GOP nominee. n/t

[jen4clark]

44. I'm with those

who don't believe Repubs would nominate Hagel. The "faithful" Jr. supporters must be livid with him! They would need the entire party to be for him and that won't happen. I don't believe we've heard from the Repub will eventually win.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

45. I completely agree. Hagel is the ONLY Republican who could win

and he's doing some smart stuff early. He is now officially claiming the "maverick" "free of Bush" mantle that McCain oh so foolishly gave up for no advantage whatsoever.

[Samantha]

46. I posted this same thought about a week ago here

I think it's a distinct possibility. The Republicans might want an anti-war candidate to take it, and he would be it. He's playing the role of the maverick, and I think he going to step out and has a real chance of taking it.

This is exactly why I said it would be a fatal mistake for the Dems not to run an anti-war candiate, someone who has been against the war from the start. Gore/Obama would be unbeatable.

If Hillary's the candidate and Hagel stepped out, he would take it.

I think you are right on the mark!