Dean Implores Wisconsin to Ignore Polls

[NNN0LHI]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=703&e=1&u=/ap/20040209/ap_on_el_pr/democrats

Democrat Howard Dean (news - web sites), in a last-ditch appeal, urged Wisconsin voters on Monday to ignore the media and opinion polls that herald presidential front-runner John Kerry (news - web sites) and use "the power to choose the strongest candidate to beat George W. Bush."


Recalling Wisconsin progressives past and present — Robert LaFollette, William Proxmire and Sen. Russell Feingold — Dean told voters, "the media claims this contest is over. They say your voice and your vote don't count. They expect you to rubber stamp the choice of others. But you don't have to listen to them."


The one-timer front-runner said Wisconsin, which votes Feb. 17, has the "power to keep this debate alive. You have the power to choose the strongest candidate to beat George W. Bush."


Rivals John Edwards (news - web sites) and Wesley Clark (news - web sites) focused on the loss of U.S. jobs as they campaigned for Southern primary votes in Tennessee and Virginia a day before Tuesday's contests. More than just 151 pledged delegates were at stake in the two states; the candidates were counting on renewed political life against front-runner John Kerry, who ran his record to 10 wins in 12 contests with a three-state weekend sweep.

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[ewagner]

1. TV says

Dean will be in Stevens Point WI at the University Center tonight at 5:30.

on edit: also got a "robo call" around 8PM last night with the same message.

[sybylla]

2. He's making stops all over the state.

He is at UW-Green Bay as we speak and will be in Superior, LaCrosse and Milwaukee tomorrow. Any Wisconsin Dems interested can check on his schedule in the header of the Wheeler Report at http://www.wheelerreport.com

or you can directly download the PDF here
http://www.thewheelerreport.com/releases/Feb04/Feb9/0209deanchoice.PDF

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. The problem: voters aren't picking Kerry because of the polls.

Rather, Kerry is leading the polls because voters are picking Kerry.

[MercutioATC]

6. If I recall correctly, exit polls in Iowa showed that most voters felt

that Dean was better on the issues, but Kerry had a better chance to beat Bush.

[JFKvsGWB]

8. I don't think that is correct

Kerry lead on all issues. Remember, he won by nearly 20 points over Dean in Iowa.

[MercutioATC]

11. Perhaps I was mistaken, but I don't believe so...CNN's coverage

showed it. They made a point of saying something "voters are choosing the ability to beat Bush as the key issue".

[The Magistrate]

12. That Is A Legitimate Criterion For Choice, Fair Mercutio

People want to defeat the criminals of the '00 Coup, and are not too particular, nor particularly squeamish, about what tool seems necessary to the task.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[MercutioATC]

18. I'm not saying that it's not legitimate.

It SHOULD be an important issue.

[quaker bill]

19. No it isn't

"Electability" is choosing a candidate by a parameter that niether be defined nor measured. Folks are free to vote how they choose, but there is absolutely no reason to believe that they are correct in their judgement on "electability'.

I expect we will discuss this further after November.

[polpilot]

37. Will we ever. Wrenching power from the establishment entrenched was

not to be in '04... Two pro-war pro-estabs Bush& Kerry attempt to out status quo each other. What a revolution!!

Dean '04...

[PAMod]

40. Yes, but choosing Kerry for electability?

Bitterly ironic, if you ask me.

Look at the record turnouts in the primaries - do you think we'd be seeing this if Dean hadn't run? Would John Kerry have ever rallied the Party this way?

C'mon - Kerry might seem safe because he is more famous, more calm, whatever, but I'm not sure that it translates to "most electable".

If he's the nominee, I'll support him and I hope I'm wrong about him, but it doesn't look good from where I sit.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. WRONG!!!

Iowa results:
Among voters that describe themselves as 'liberal', Kerry received 33% of the vote, Dean received 24% of the vote.
Among voters that describe themselves as 'Democrats', Kerry received 36% of the vote, Dean received 20% of the vote.
Among voters that describe themselves as 'Strong Democrats', Kerry received 35% of the vote, Dean received 22% of the vote.
Among voters that describe themselves as 'Independents', Kerry received 34% of the vote, Dean received 21% of the vote.
Among voters that describe themselves as 'union households', Kerry received 29% of the vote, Dean received 19% of the vote.
Among voters that describe themselves as 'college graduates', Kerry received 33% of the vote, Dean received 24% of the vote.
Among voters that describe themselves as 'internet users', Kerry received 33% of the vote, Dean received 24% of the vote.
Among voters who 'somewhat disapprove' of the war in Iraq, Kerry received 34% of the vote, Dean received 14% of the vote.
Among voters who 'strongly disapprove' of the war in Iraq, Kerry received 34% of the vote, Dean received 29% of the vote.
Among first-time caucus goers, Kerry received 35% of the vote, Dean received 19% of the vote.
Among voters aged 17-29, Kerry received 35% of the vote, Dean received 25% of the vote.
Among voters aged 65+ (the group that votes the most), Kerry received 43% of the vote, Dean received 15% of the vote.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/epolls/IA/index.html

[Ketcham]

16. umm

None of those strata would show what post 6 was asserting: "that Dean was better on the issues, but Kerry had a better chance to beat Bush."

You would need to see an exit poll asking "Which candidate do you agree with most on the issues?" and "Which candidate did you actually vote for?" to verify post 6, not a list of voting percentages based on factors unrelated to "Which candidate do you agree with most on the issues?"

You know what they say: Lies, damn lies, etc.
Cheers.

[MercutioATC]

17. Thanks for that, Ketcham. That WAS the gist of the exit poll I saw.

It asked what candidate they agreed most with on the issues and Dean was first, somewhere in the mid-50's with Kerry in the 30's. It then asked which candidate had the best chance of winning in the GE and the numbers were almost exactly opposite.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

21. Sorry but no such exit poll exists.

You can say it exists, but that won't make it spring into existence.

[MercutioATC]

23. Hey, all I'm saying is that I saw it on TV the night of the caucus...

[Feanorcurufinwe]

26. What I am saying is that no such poll exists,

if you think you saw it, you are wrong. Your memory is mistaken.

I am guessing that you heard some media whore's spin on the entrance poll data.

[MercutioATC]

30. Well, you're mistaken. See post #26

This took me about 3 minutes to google.

[MercutioATC]

39. Oops. See post #29...awww, hell. Just look here:

http://political.linnwood.org/iowa_caucus.pdf

[Feanorcurufinwe]

20. This is the data

from the Iowa entrance poll. (fyi, there was an entrace poll, and no exit poll).

The poster I responded to claimed that the data showed something, and as you can see, it doesn't show that.

There is no other data so there is nothing that shows what the poster claimed.

Sorry to be such a stickler for the facts.

[MercutioATC]

24. You're saying that NOBODY did an exit poll???

What I saw said that it was based on exit polls, so we're probably talking about different polls.

What possible problem could you have with that?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

27. That is correct, no one did any exit polls

There was an entrance poll which I have linked to. No exit polls were conducted by anyone.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/primariescaucus/2004-01-20-iowa-tv_x.htm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,1282,-3625865,00.html

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Entertainment/ap20040118_552.html

[MercutioATC]

29. You DO realize that it's impossible to prove a negative, right? Proof:

Granted it's not a great source, but there WERE exit polls that were conducted that day:

http://political.linnwood.org/iowa_caucus.pdf

...and it actually supports my original statement, even though it's not the poll I saw...

I don't have a link to the one I saw (because I SAW it, I didn't read it), but at least we've debunked your statement that there were NO Iowa Caucus exit polls...

[Feanorcurufinwe]

32. That is the entrance poll data.

Yes, it is mislabelled as exit poll data in that pdf but as you point out, it is not much of a source.

I have no doubt that I could never convince you of anything whatsover. But the fact is that in Iowa, Edison/Mitofsky conducted an entrance poll, not an exit poll.

[MercutioATC]

34. As you said, It's clearly labeled as "exit poll" data. Why do you say it

isn't?

You're very correct in saying that your arguments usually don't convince me, but I find your assertion that this exit poll is simply a mislabeled entrance poll laughable, especially when it supports my initial claim anyway.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

33. kerry's 'electibilty'

will disappear soon. the rw propaganda machine is turning towards him. we're already seeing it in the newsmax photos of kerry 'teamed up' (their words) with jane fonda. (you know, the one where he's, like, 4 rows behind her in a crowd shot)

it will get worse. it's only february. better hope he can counter it

[MaddogTerp]

10. cute. NOT

one reason Kerry keeps leading the polls is because the MEDIA is the one wording the questions, doing the polls, chosing who to poll, and reporting the answers.

if the MEDIA would give Howie the chance and the attention he deserves, an UNBIASED poll would show more balance

if the MEDIA would pay attention to digging up dirt on Kerry the way they have on Howie, Kerry wouldn't even be IN the race, much less leading

[creativelcro]

22. ... and the link with the proof of this theorem is?

[West Coast Democrat]

4. Clark is in 2nd place in WI

according to ARG--Clark is ahead of both Dean and Edwards

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[NNN0LHI]

5. Glad to see the General doing so well in a northern state

He appears to have wide appeal. He should even do better in the south. Thanks for the info and link.

Don

[maddezmom]

9. good to hear

thanks for the link. :)

[YouMustBeKiddingMe]

36. OMG, Dean is under 10% in all 3 states

[JFKvsGWB]

7. This is a compressed calendar and Dean suffered huge losses

early on. I think that would be hard to get over no matter how short the calendar is, but especially since Dean's losses were huge upsets.

[Zomby Woof]

13. the desperate appeal of a drowning man

[mitchum]

14. All over except for the screaming

Pathetic really...

[Name removed]

25. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NNN0LHI]

28. May I ask how you know who the Kerry supporters are?

I can't tell who is who on an anonymous Internet chat board. Honestly I can't. Please tell me how you do it. Thank you.

Don

[polpilot]

38. They're pro-war, pro-establishment, pro-status quo ,pro-DLC supporters...

Dean '04...

[Tweed]

31. Such a shame that Dean is not progressive like LaFollette or Feingold

[MercutioATC]

35. Why? Some of us like him because he's NOT incredibly "progressive"

He's relatively liberal on social issues and fiscally conservative. That's the perfect mix for me (and a lot of other people).