The Architect's Faulty Specs (How Bush's Brain Got his Metrics Wrong)

[RamboLiberal]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15675318/site/newsweek

President Bush knew he was in for a rough night. As he settled down in front of the TV in the White House residence to watch the election results, the numbers were already grim. By 8 p.m., long before the polls closed out west, Bush realized it was over. "It looks like this is going to be a rout," he lamented to a handful of aides.

Downstairs in the West Wing, Karl Rove wasn't ready to concede anything. The president's political architect believed the GOP could hold on to slender majorities in the House and the Senate. He had history on his side: in 2004 he refused to believe the early exit polls while everyone else was resigned to defeat. This time he was convinced his numbers would come through again. But even Rove's optimism finally cracked when he took a gloomy call from an old friend working for Rep. Clay Shaw in Florida. Shaw won re-election two years ago by a 28-point margin; last week he was heading to a four-point defeat. At 11:01 p.m., Rove made the long walk to the residence. "We're losing the House," he told Bush. The president let out a long sigh and went to bed.

How did the man they call Bush's brain get it so wrong?

Rove's miscalculations began well before election night. The polls and pundits pointed to a Democratic sweep, but Rove dismissed them all. In public, he predicted outright victory, flashing the V sign to reporters flying on Air Force One. He wasn't just trying to psych out the media and the opposition. He believed his "metrics" were far superior to plain old polls. Two weeks before the elections, Rove showed NEWSWEEK his magic numbers: a series of graphs and bar charts that tallied early voting and voter outreach. Both were running far higher than in 2004. In fact, Rove thought the polls were obsolete because they relied on home telephones in an age of do-not-call lists and cell phones. Based on his models, he forecast a loss of 12 to 14 seats in the House—enough to hang on to the majority. Rove placed so much faith in his figures that, after the elections, he planned to convene a panel of Republican political scientists—to study just how wrong the polls were.

[LynnTheDem]

1. Unfortunately for rove & bush, Americans aren't as stupid as they thought.

You can only con Americans for so long. Except MFing freeps, of course; they like being conned again & again & again.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. BWAHAHAHAHA! That arrogant ass...

S'pose KKKarl might like some tasty recipes for crow?

Crow a la king
Crow etouffe
Creamed crow on toast
Crow Kiev
Crowburgers

Eat up, KKKarl, you worthless douche. I can't tell you how much I enjoy reading about how you just fell on your fat ass.

[countmyvote4real]

3. I've got your vote here. Count this.

That's my NY "crude" response. Thankfully, we had the votes, but not every district or memo got the algorithm. Too many machines have been relying on "outlaw" code.

[OneBlueSky]

4. apparently, their election fraud operation simply didn't . . .

cover enough districts . . . they utterly failed to grasp the deep disgust that Americans have with their administration and the toadies in Congress who have enabled them . . .

they failed, in other words, to take reality into account -- assuming that they could once again create their own reality . . . and when you don't believe in reality, it generally jumps up and bites you in the ass . . .

Rove's ample ass was full of teeth marks last Wednesday . . .