CO4 - Latest poll has Musgrave, Paccione in dead heat

[Turn CO Blue]

<http://www.9news.com/acm_news.aspx?OSGNAME=KUSA&IKOBJECTID=af62c13f-0abe-421a-00e7-482d7d55f0f9&TEMPLATEID=0c76dce6-ac1f-02d8-0047-c589c01ca7bf>

KUSA- According to the latest SurveyUSA poll, the race in Colorado's 4th Congressional District is in a dead heat.

In the poll released 96 hours before the election, Republican incumbent candidate Marilyn Musgrave leads Democratic challenger Angie Paccione by one point.

The data was collected by surveying 900 adults from Colorado's 4th Congressional District between October 31 and November 2. Of those polled, 782 were registered voters and 571 were judged "likely" to vote.

...snip...
According to the poll released Friday, Musgrave took 44 percent of the support, Paccione had 43 percent and Eidness had 11 percent. Two percent of voters said they were undecided.

In a similar poll 2 weeks ago, Musgrave lead Paccione by 10 points.
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From SurveyUSA:
Jump Ball in CO4;
Democrat Paccione Catches Republican Musgrave: 96 hours to the election, the contest for U.S. House of Representatives in Colorado's 4th Congressional District is the closest it has been in 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted exclusively over the past 10 weeks for KUSA-TV Denver. 10 weeks ago, the incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave led by 4. 6 weeks ago, identical, Musgrave by 4. 2 weeks ago, Musgrave led by 10. Today, Musgrave leads by 1, far enough inside of the survey's 4.2 percent margin of sampling error that the contest should be reported as a tie. Favoring Democrat challenger Angie Paccione: males have rallied to her. Compared to 2 weeks ago, among males, Paccione is up 12 points, Musgrave is down 9 points. Musgrave had led by 22 among males, now is tied. Females have been and remain tied. Favoring Republican incumbent Musgrave: the number of self-identified Republican likely voters in today's sample is 42%, the lowest it has been in 4 polls. The number of self-identified Democrats in today's sample is 32%, the highest in 4 polls. If the composition of actual voters is closer to 46% Republican and 27% Democrat, as it has been in prior SurveyUSA polls, advantage Musgrave. 81% of Republicans vote Republican. 78% of Democrats vote Democrat. Paccione's support is up sharply among Independents, where she had led 4:3, but today leads 2:1. Older voters have also broken late for Paccione. In 3 prior tracking polls, Paccione trailed among voters 65+ by 11, 12, and 12 points. Today, she leads by 2, a 14-point swing. Observation: Colorado's Governor race is not competitive, according to SurveyUSA's most recent polling for KUSA-TV, but Colorado does have a number of fiercely contested constitutional amendments on the ballot. Turnout in the 4th Congressional District may be influenced by voters who show up on Election Day with a passionate position on marriage, marijuana or the minimum wage. Musgrave was first elected to Congress in 2002.

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My commentary: Paccione has made up some serious ground in two weeks! Woo hoo! Muskrat must go!

[LonelyLRLiberal]

1. I have been doing some calling for Moveon and made some calls for Paccione.

Calls were generally well received.

[Turn CO Blue]

2. Thank you for your work!

I will tell you that Musgrave is not even in my district, but she is a black eye on the reputation of Colorado!

[LonelyLRLiberal]

4. Glad to do even a small part.

Every vote will be crucial (assuming votes get counted!).

[KingFlorez]

3. Good news

I'm glad Angie has pulled closer, perhaps this election is the one where Musgrave's luck runs out.

[otohara]

5. Talk About A Slimy Campaign

Gawd Musgrave is playing the bankruptcy thing to death. Colorado leads in foreclosure's - lots of folks can relate to what Angie went through.