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BurgherHoldtheLies Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 09:20 PM
Original message
New Majority Watch Polls from across the country....
New Majority Watch Polls: Even More Democratic Pickups
by Chris Bowers, Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 07:48:46 PM EST

Here are the details that Jerome hinted at below.

On the heels of news that Jim Webb has taken the lead in the five-poll average of the Virginia Senate race (or at least he will, once the new Rasumssen is released), comes equally encourage news form Majority Watch. Just look at these amazing House polls (10/24-10/26, 1,000 LVs):

(Democratic held seats in italics, netroots candidates in bold)
AZ-01: Renzi (R) 48%--46% Simon (D) (previous: Simon by five)
CA-04: Doolittle (R) 49%--46% Brown (D) (previous: Doolittle by eight)
CA-11: McNerney (D) 48%--46% Pombo (R) (no trendline)
CO-04: Paccione (D) 48%--45% Musgrave (R) (previous: Musgrave by six)
CO-07: Perlmutter (D) 51%--46% O'Donnell (R) (previous: tied)
CT-02: Courtney (D) 51%--45% Simmons (R) (previous: Courtney by six)
CT-04: Shays (R) 52%--42% Farrell (D) (previous: Shays by seven)
CT-05: Murphy (D) 51%--43% Johnson (R) (previous: Johnson by six)
FL-13: Jennings (D) 49%--47% Buchannan (R) (previous: Jennings by two)
FL-22: Klein (D) 50%--48% Shaw (R) (previous: Shaw by eight)
IA-02: Leach (R) 50%--48% Loebsack (D) (previous: Loebsack by one)
IL-06: Duckworth (D) 48%--47% Roskam (R) (previous: Roskam by one)
IL-08: Bean (D) 50%--45% McSweeney (R) (previous: Bean by three)
IL-10: Seals (D) 48%--46% Kirk (R) (previous: Kirk by two)
IN-02: Donnelly (D) 48%--45% Chocola (R) (previous: Donnelly by four)
IN-08: Ellsworth (D) 53%--43% Hostettler (R) (previous: Ellsworth by six)
IN-09: Hill (D) 51%--43% Sodrel (R) (previous: Hill be eleven)
KY-03: Yarmuth (D) 52%--46% Northup (R) (previous: tied)
KY-04: Lucas (D) 50%--46% Davis (R) (previous: Davis by three)
MN-01: Gutknecht (R) 50%--47% Walz (D) (previous: Gutknecht by one)
MN-06: Bachman (R) 48%--47% Wetterling (D) (previous: Wetterling by four)
NC-08: Kissell (D) 48%--44% Hayes (R) (previous: Kissell by seven)
NC-11: Schuler (D) 53%--44% Taylor (R) (previous: Schuler by eight)
NH-02: Hodes (D) 50%--47% Bass (R) (no trendline)
NJ-07: Ferguson (R) 46%--43% Stender (D) (previous: Ferguson by two)
NV-03: Porter (R) 51%--44% Hafen (D) (previous: Porter by eight)
NY-03: King (R) 51%--44% Mejias (D) (previous: King by two)
NY-19: Hall (D) 49%--47% Kelley (R) (previous: Hall by eight)
NY-20: Gillibrand (D) 53%--42% Sweeney (R) (previous: Gillibrand by thirteen)
NY-25: Maffei (D) 53%--44% Walsh (R) (previous: Maffei by eight)
NY-29: Massa (D) 53%--42% Kuhl (R) (previous: Massa by twelve)
OH-01: Chabot (R) 48%--46% Cranley (D) (no trendline)
OH-02: Schmidt (R) 51%--46% Wulsin (D) (previous: Wulsin by three)
OH-12: Tiberi (R) 51%--46% Shamansky (D) (no trendline)
PA-04: Hart (R) 51%--47% Altmire (D) (no trendline)
PA-06: Murphy (D) 51%--46% Gerlach (R) (previous: Murphy by six)
PA-08: Murphy: (D) 50%--47% Fitzpatrick (R) (previous: Fitzpatrick by eight)
VA-02: Kellam (D) 50%--45% Drake (R) (previous: Drake by four)
WA-05: McMorris (R) 51%--46% Goldmark (D) (no trendline)
WA-08: Burner (D) 49%--47% Reichert (R) (previous Reichert by three)
WI-08: Kagen (D) 51%--45% Gard (R) (previous: Kagen by two)
This is just remarkable. Looking at these numbers, one has to wonder if any Republicans are safe this year. It seems like every time a new district is polled, a new and very serious Democratic challenge appears. Current Majority Watch polling shows Republicans down to 177 safe seats (that is, seats with leads outside the margin of error). They also show exactly 60 races within the margin of error, backing up everything I wrote last night. A simple burp or hiccup in this election could cause ten seats to swing one way or the other. Further, the second and third tier$ candidates we have helped for the netroots page are also clearly rocking out. Look at out picks: CA-11, IL-10, MN-01, NH-02, NJ-07, NY-29, PA-08 and WA-08. With the exception of WA-08, none of these were supposed to be top tier races. However we are actually leading in six out of eight (and in the other two, MN-01 and NJ-07, Walz and Stender are very only down three). Man, the netroots know how to pick the right candidates. It is also a pleasure to see Democrats doing well in other districts we have helped, including FL-22, IL-06, OH-02, PA-06 and TX-22. We expanded the playing field, big time.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/30/194846/44

http://www.constituentdynamics.com/mw/2006/index2.php
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femmocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 09:23 PM
Response to Original message
1. I sure would like to see those numbers flipped in PA-04.
I thought Altmire was doing better? It would be really sweet to get rid of Hart and Rick at the same time.
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BurgherHoldtheLies Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 09:28 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Altmire has now shown to be within 4 in two independent polls
Tragically, when you click on the Majority Report link then go to the PA-04 page you see the Altmire ties Hart in the part of PA-04 NORTH of the Allegheny River but Hart leads him by 7 south of the Allegheny (into Westmoreland County).

Gee, ya think the Scaife bird-cage-liner Trib plays a part in that region by demoninzing Dems on a regular basis. :puke:
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appleannie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 12:05 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. did anyone get the word out about
her calling the police on the group of seniors? If not, check the links at the state forum. And get busy.
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