What is the most likely pick-up of the 3 toss-ups.

[usregimechange]

Poll question: What is the most likely pick-up of the 3 toss-ups.

Although Montana and New Jersey could be considered toss-ups, these three races are clearly in that category. Which is mist likely to win? Not the one you want to win but the most likely.

Poll result (52 votes)
Tennessee - Harold Ford	(6 votes, 12%)	Vote
Missouri - Claire McCaskill	(27 votes, 52%)	Vote
Virginia - Jim Webb	(19 votes, 37%)	Vote

[waiting for hope]

1. Toss up between

VA and TN....can't decide but feel that Ford will push through.

[saltpoint]

2. Webb in Virginia as most likely. I feel the momentum is Webb's way

and that many Virginia voters just don't want a racist thug for a U.S. Senator, even less a presidential candidate.

[bluestateguy]

3. Of the 3 Democrats have the best GOTV in Virginia

It worked for Warner and Kaine. Karl Rove's "voter Vault" must have been locked for those elections.

[femmocrat]

4. I think all three are win-able! Both Webb and Ford were up in the

polls today.

[Chomskyite]

5. Ballot initiative power!

The stem-cell research initiative will power Claire to the win. The other two don't have that kind of help on their ballots.

[usregimechange]

7. Some are suggesting that it will motivate the wingnuts.

[MasonJar]

6. Claire has to win; I sent her money.

[thatsrightimirish]

8. Just look at the polls

While I think we can win all three at this point Webb is the most likely.

[fujiyama]

9. Recent history shows

VA to be a strong possibility. After all, Kaine was in a very tight race and eventually pulled through (thanks in part to Warner). And of the three states, VA was the closest in '04. Bush won the other two states by double digits.

[JI7]

10. i would soooooo love and hope to win all of them

it changes i think, but based on what i'm reading today i think Virginia might be the most likely.

[Tippy]

11. Don't count Tennessee out ...........

It's not over till it's over..

[Eurobabe]

12. All three, keep the FAITH!!

[KKKarl is an idiot]

13. ..

TN is a possibility but I think VA & MS are definitely swinging our way. I think it would be awesome if we could pull of all 3.

[mrgorth]

14. You mean MO

MS is a lost cause.

[newportdadde]

15. Who do the betting sites have winning?

I can't access them at work of course but I think one might be called tradesports or something. There are sites out there were people bet real money on these election outcomes.

[DCal]

17. Tradesports only has VA going Dem at this point

Webb has gone from about 30% likely to win up to 55% in the past day.

McCaskill is viewed as slightly less likely to win than Talent, but she has gained ground in the last 2 days also.

Ford is only 30% likely to win and has been dropping over the past couple of weeks.

These numbers all fluctuate quite a bit when news or new polls come out.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

16. With loss of two of the 3, Democrats fail to retake the Senate,

even if NJ re-elects Menendez.

The most definitive nose-counting site, http://www.cqpolitics.com/06map.html , still lists VA as "Leans R", so one premise of your poll is debatable.

A better question than the one you asked would be, which of these three states is the LEAST likely Democratic pickup, because we can afford only one loss out of the three.

The current R majority is 55, so we need a net gain of 6 for Senate control.

The CQ site lists four currently R states as "leaning Democratic:" PA, OH, MT, and RI. MO and TN are counted as "No Clear Favorite", as is NJ.

If we sweep the R-held "Leaning Democratic" 4, hold NJ, and pick up MO, we're still one short.

That means either VA or TN is a MUST!

Even though CQ Politics has VA in the "Leaning R" column, I'd say a VA victory is more likely than a Ford win in TN. "Social desirability response bias" in a balck-white matchup means Ford needs at least a 5 to 10-point advantage in pre-election polls to be sure of winning by the slimmest of actual Election-Day margins.

[SteppingRazor]

18. I think it's pretty obvious that Missouri's the most likely...

In Virginia, Webb has never lead in the polls, except in late August/early Sept. and in the last major poll, which could mean it's an outlier.

In Tennessee, the race is currently a dead heat, but the trend has been for Ford to jump in the lead, then quickly fade again.

In Missouri, though, McCaskill has been ahead for long stretches at a time.

Also, Missouri has the largest ratio of Democrat-to-Republican voters, which is what puts it firmly in the "most-likely" category for me.