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What is the most likely pick-up of the 3 toss-ups.

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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 10:03 PM
Original message
Poll question: What is the most likely pick-up of the 3 toss-ups.
Although Montana and New Jersey could be considered toss-ups, these three races are clearly in that category. Which is mist likely to win? Not the one you want to win but the most likely.

Sorry, polls are turned off at Level 3.

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waiting for hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 10:05 PM
Response to Original message
1. Toss up between
VA and TN....can't decide but feel that Ford will push through.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 10:06 PM
Response to Original message
2. Webb in Virginia as most likely. I feel the momentum is Webb's way
and that many Virginia voters just don't want a racist thug for a U.S. Senator, even less a presidential candidate.

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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 10:07 PM
Response to Original message
3. Of the 3 Democrats have the best GOTV in Virginia
It worked for Warner and Kaine. Karl Rove's "voter Vault" must have been locked for those elections.
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femmocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 10:07 PM
Response to Original message
4. I think all three are win-able! Both Webb and Ford were up in the
polls today.
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Chomskyite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 10:11 PM
Response to Original message
5. Ballot initiative power!
The stem-cell research initiative will power Claire to the win. The other two don't have that kind of help on their ballots.
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Some are suggesting that it will motivate the wingnuts.
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MasonJar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 10:13 PM
Response to Original message
6. Claire has to win; I sent her money.
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thatsrightimirish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 11:11 PM
Response to Original message
8. Just look at the polls
While I think we can win all three at this point Webb is the most likely.
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 01:03 AM
Response to Original message
9. Recent history shows
VA to be a strong possibility. After all, Kaine was in a very tight race and eventually pulled through (thanks in part to Warner). And of the three states, VA was the closest in '04. Bush won the other two states by double digits.




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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 01:29 AM
Response to Original message
10. i would soooooo love and hope to win all of them
it changes i think, but based on what i'm reading today i think Virginia might be the most likely.

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Tippy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
11. Don't count Tennessee out ...........
It's not over till it's over..
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 10:16 AM
Response to Original message
12. All three, keep the FAITH!!
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KKKarl is an idiot Donating Member (662 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 10:18 AM
Response to Original message
13. ..
TN is a possibility but I think VA & MS are definitely swinging our way. I think it would be awesome if we could pull of all 3.
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mrgorth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. You mean MO
MS is a lost cause.
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newportdadde Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 10:53 AM
Response to Original message
15. Who do the betting sites have winning?
I can't access them at work of course but I think one might be called tradesports or something. There are sites out there were people bet real money on these election outcomes.
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DCal Donating Member (170 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Tradesports only has VA going Dem at this point
Webb has gone from about 30% likely to win up to 55% in the past day.

McCaskill is viewed as slightly less likely to win than Talent, but she has gained ground in the last 2 days also.

Ford is only 30% likely to win and has been dropping over the past couple of weeks.

These numbers all fluctuate quite a bit when news or new polls come out.

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ProgressiveEconomist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 11:10 AM
Response to Original message
16. With loss of two of the 3, Democrats fail to retake the Senate,
even if NJ re-elects Menendez.

The most definitive nose-counting site, http://www.cqpolitics.com/06map.html , still lists VA as "Leans R", so one premise of your poll is debatable.

A better question than the one you asked would be, which of these three states is the LEAST likely Democratic pickup, because we can afford only one loss out of the three.

The current R majority is 55, so we need a net gain of 6 for Senate control.

The CQ site lists four currently R states as "leaning Democratic:" PA, OH, MT, and RI. MO and TN are counted as "No Clear Favorite", as is NJ.

If we sweep the R-held "Leaning Democratic" 4, hold NJ, and pick up MO, we're still one short.

That means either VA or TN is a MUST!

Even though CQ Politics has VA in the "Leaning R" column, I'd say a VA victory is more likely than a Ford win in TN. "Social desirability response bias" in a balck-white matchup means Ford needs at least a 5 to 10-point advantage in pre-election polls to be sure of winning by the slimmest of actual Election-Day margins.
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SteppingRazor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-31-06 12:15 PM
Response to Original message
18. I think it's pretty obvious that Missouri's the most likely...
In Virginia, Webb has never lead in the polls, except in late August/early Sept. and in the last major poll, which could mean it's an outlier.

In Tennessee, the race is currently a dead heat, but the trend has been for Ford to jump in the lead, then quickly fade again.

In Missouri, though, McCaskill has been ahead for long stretches at a time.

Also, Missouri has the largest ratio of Democrat-to-Republican voters, which is what puts it firmly in the "most-likely" category for me.
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