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Charlie Cook tonight says "there are no signs that this wave is abating."

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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 07:58 PM
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Charlie Cook tonight says "there are no signs that this wave is abating."
Charlie Cook's National Overview
There Is No Ebb In The Wave
October 30, 2006

With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.

If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.

The dynamics we are seeing this year are eerily similar to those in 1994. The President and party are different, so are the issues, but the dynamics are comparable.

In 1994, Democrats were in trouble because of tax increases, a failed health plan, and the crime bill (read, guns). There were also a myriad of scandals that started in the late 1980s that moved voters, including many Democrats, to reject the party's candidates, including some once-popular incumbents.

This year, it is the war in Iraq and scandals. For conservatives, the list also includes the Mark Foley affair, immigration, high government spending and high deficits. For Democrats and independents, stem cell research and Terri Schiavo round out the list. Finally, it would seem that voters of all ideological stripes feel that the GOP-lead Congress has become dysfunctional.

http://cookpolitical.com/overview/default.php
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:01 PM
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1. k&r. 8 more days - fight like hell to tip all those close races our way.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:01 PM
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2. His poll is devastating for the Republicans.
His nationwide poll finds shows Dems up by 13% among registered voters and 26% among most likely voters.
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:16 PM
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4. It is. The GOP is not going to like the trend one bit, and the
already-nasty climate could get nastier.
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texpatriot2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:11 PM
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3. K & R nm
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senseandsensibility Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 09:42 PM
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5. kick
This is from today, people.
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Mr_Spock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 09:55 PM
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6. Love the analysis
Let's keep the momentum right 'til the end people!
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fuzzyball Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 09:58 PM
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7. The average loss of House seats in 6th year of a presidency is..
closer to 40. Let's hope we get 50.
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