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Poll: Race For DeLay's Seat Even

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RedEarth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:45 PM
Original message
Poll: Race For DeLay's Seat Even
AP) In the race for the congressional seat once held by former Rep. Tom DeLay, the same number of likely voters said they would vote for a write-in candidate as for the Democratic nominee, according to a new poll.

Thirty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for a write-in candidate, a statistical tie with the 36 percent support for Democrat Nick Lampson, according to the poll of likely voters in the Houston area's 22nd Congressional District.

Of the respondents who said they'd choose a write-in candidate, 79 percent said they planned to name Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a Houston city councilwoman backed by the Republican Party.

Twenty-five percent of surveyed voters said they were still undecided.

"Both candidates seem to be swimming upstream here," said pollster John Zogby, president of Zogby International, which conducted the poll. "What's clear on one hand, is Nick Lampson seems to have had the opportunity and has not closed the deal just yet. On the same token, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs has a great opportunity in a Republican district."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/10/30/politics/main...
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AlCzervik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:47 PM
Response to Original message
1. she has the worst write in name ever imo, i hope Lampson can
pull this out.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. Anyone dumb enough to vote for her likely won't be able to spell her name NT
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AlCzervik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. i think they'll get in there go "Forget it", Lampson, so much easier
and on the ballot.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
2. I cannot understand people being undecided at this late date.
What the heck are they waiting for? Don't they have an independent thought in their heads, or an issue they agree or disagree with? :crazy:
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #2
16. They KNOW who they are gonna vote for, they just like the attention
"Undecideds" get more attention from pollsters. I guess it whiles away a lonely day or something.

If you ask the clowns what way they're leaning, or "If the election were today and your ass was in the booth right NOW, which one would you pick?" their answer is the way they're likely to vote. If they even bother to get their behinds to the polls, that is!

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Justitia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
3. She's a moron and that is a seriously gerrymandered district.
Let's hope Nick Lampson pulls it out and the deserving Dems down there get representation for the first time in eternity.
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Greeby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. From what I've heard, the gerrymandering screwed the Repukes
Because Delay pulled all his criminal acts in order to gerrymander those 5 districts and get 5 repukes elected, he inadvertently shoved a lot of likely Democratic voters into his own district :eyes:
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displacedtexan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
4. I want the spelling checked on every one of those ballots, damn it.
If the hyphen is missing, toss that sucker out.

I mean it, damn it.
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:49 PM
Response to Original message
5. headline is misleading--"a write-in" != Sekula-Gibbs.
i read on mydd.com that only 19% said they would vote for her.

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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:51 PM
Response to Original message
6. This translates to Lamspon being up 36%-28%
If Lampson was sitting on his ass doing nothing, I would be worried, but that is not what he is doing, so I think he will be fine. Every day he has been running this race has been with a full appreciation of the fact that he is in a Republican district.
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GreenTea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:51 PM
Response to Original message
7. If no one believes Diebold won't come into play in Texas of all places...
they haven't been paying a bit of attention.
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #7
18. In this district, we have e-slate machines, not Diebold.
But they're hackable, too.
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Parche Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:54 PM
Response to Original message
9. congress
I never heard of her, who is Smelley-Dracula-Nibbs??????
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unpossibles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
10. wait - this is a biased report
they are not really even - if the write-ins and the Dem are even around 35% of polled, and 79% of the write-ins are for one person, then she has about 27% of the votes of those polled, not 35%.

Damn liberal media at it again! :eyes:
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gkhouston Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. so she has a chance of beating that fellow, Undecided. n/t
Edited on Mon Oct-30-06 01:00 PM by gkhouston
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unpossibles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #13
23. I should have said the "title" was wrong/biased. n/t
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greeneyedboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 12:56 PM
Response to Original message
11. the poll really says 36 - 19, Lampson (D) ahead.
Edited on Mon Oct-30-06 12:57 PM by greeneyedboy
http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/30/11164/085

TX-22: On Ultra-Red Districts And Building a Long-Term Majority - by Chris Bowers
John Zogby has a habit of producing polls that, rather than trying to reveal the current state of public opinion, instead are provocative for the media and tell the person who commissioned the poll what they want to hear. His latest poll out of TX-22 is no different:

Write-in tightens race in District 22
Sekula-Gibbs running close to Lampson for the seat DeLay held

Really? Gibbs is close? Is that what the poll actually says? Um, not exactly:
Thirty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for a write-in candidate, a statistical tie with the 36 percent support for Democrat Nick Lampson, according to the poll of more than 500 likely voters in the 22nd Congressional District.

Ah, I see. Write-ins are close. But write-ins are not the same as Gibbs. The poll shows that 79% of write-in voters intend to vote for Gibbs. It also shows that only two-thirds of those voters know how to conduct a write-in. With those two factors taken into account, Lampson is actually doubling up Gibbs 36-19. But hey, Zogby wasn't commissioned to make a boring poll. . . . "
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MidwestTransplant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:00 PM
Response to Original message
14. What are the rules?
How close do they have to spell her name?

Do votes for Delay go to her? If not, plenty of Republicans will vote for Delay which will take away from her.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:05 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. Some spelling errors are allowed
If the intent of the voter is clear.
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MidwestTransplant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:18 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. What about votes for Delay?
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. They are counted as votes for DeLay
He can run. He just can't serve if he were to win (until or if he becomes an official felon).
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MidwestTransplant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:39 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. Oh good. I imagine there will be a bunch of votes for Delay
that would have otherwise gone for the Republican write-in. I don't see how Lampson can loose this. 2008 is another question though.
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AlinPA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
20. I'm not surprised. That is a very heavily republican district. It will be hard
to make any gains in the south if that race is any indicator.
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