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Analysis on 3 Senate races to make everyone feel a little better

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rpannier Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 07:36 AM
Original message
Analysis on 3 Senate races to make everyone feel a little better
The three key Senate races that are expected to be very close are in Tennessee, Virginia, and Missouri. In all three, the official in charge of elections is the secretary of state (called the secretary of the commonwealth in Virginia). Of course, the governor also has a lot of influence, especially in a close and contested election. So who are the players in these states?

In Tennessee, the governor is Democrat Phil Bredesen and the secretary of state is Democrat Riley Darnell. Bredesen has an especially keen interest in this election since he is up for re-election, against state senator Jim Bryson (R). The most recent poll shows Bredesen leading Bryson by more than 40 percentage points. Darnell was re-elected in 2005 and is not on the ballot this year.

In Virginia, the governor is Democrat Tim Kaine, who was elected last year. The secretary of the commonwealth is an appointed office in Virginia. Kaine appointed Katherine Hanley to the job, a long-time local Democratic politician.

In Missouri, we have a Republican governor, Matt Blunt, son of House majority leader, Roy Blunt (R-MO). However the secretary of state, Robin Carnahan is definitely a Democrat. Furthermore, her brother, Russ Carnahan is the incumbent Democratic congressman in MO-03 and her grandfather, Albert Carnahan, was a 6-term Democratic congressman. Dad, the late Mel Carnahan, was a Democratic governor of Missouri and the first dead man ever elected to the U.S. Senate from Missouri, after a fatal plane crash during his Senate campaign in Oct. 2000.


This made me feel better in these states, because the republikkans do not have the built in apparatus like they did in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004.

link:
http://www.electoral-vote.com /

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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
1. That does make me feel better
Democrats control the vote counting in those states.
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Wickerman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 07:48 AM
Response to Original message
2. Any take on Vermont or Montana?
Vermont being virtually tied and Montana with slight Dem advantage?
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rpannier Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 07:57 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. You sure about Vermont?
All the polls I've seen have Sanders up by 20+ points.
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Wickerman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #4
12. You're right
Edited on Mon Oct-30-06 09:36 AM by Wickerman
I was reading my notes quickly. er, sorry about that. :blush:
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 07:57 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. I have a hunch you're thinking
of the Vermont House race, as Bernie is absolutely creaming the repuke he's running against and who has spent an obscene amount of dough to no avail. In the House race, Peter Welch, a truly outstanding guy is running against Martha Rainville ex-Adjutant General of the VT Guard. She's been running as a pro-choice, pro-environment, fire Rumsfeld repub, but Peter's been ahead in all recent polls. I'm pretty confident he'll win by a margin of at least 8.
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Hav Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 07:57 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. .
The Senate race in Vermont isn't tied (at least I hope not..). Sanders will win with a big margin.
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Lasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 07:53 AM
Response to Original message
3. Thnak you, but I'm worried about Montana and New Jersey too.
We're ahead in these races by 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively, according to Real Clear Politics poll averages. And these gaps have closed somewhat lately.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/senate /

:scared:

On a brighter note I will be absolutely shocked if we don't take the House.
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rpannier Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:04 AM
Response to Reply #3
8. Montana has a Democratic Governor
Edited on Mon Oct-30-06 08:04 AM by rpannier
Secretary of State is Brad Johnson a republikkan,
But, during his tenure Montana has elected a Democratic Governor and the Legislative branch is controlled by the Democratic Party as well.

I won't say he's a great guy. But, there don't appear to be any red flags with this guy.

If your interested here's the sos johnson's site:
http://sos.mt.gov/About_Office/About_Brad.asp

you might find a flag I'm missing.
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 09:42 AM
Response to Reply #3
13. Don't Worry About NJ
Seriously. There is no way hell NJ will a elect a Repub. in the political atmosphere that exists today and the Gov is Corzine, a Dem. No. Way. In. Hell. Trust me.

And Montana's Gov. is Schweitzer, a kick ass take no nonsense Dem. Repubs will not be able to steal either of those states.
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Lasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 09:54 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. Thanks for the reassurement, Beetwasher
But I'm not thinking about theft right now as much as I am about the polls. A couple of weeks ago we had enough seats to take control of the Senate. Now we don't. I'm hoping we can fight back during the one week we have left.

But don't get me wrong; picking up control of just the House will be really really big. Betcha Gonzalez will be testifying before a House committee soon, and he'll be under oath - in sharp contrast to his testimony before the Senate.
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Greeby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:03 AM
Response to Original message
7. Mel Carnahan's daughter monitoring his old seat?
If Talent loses, expect him to bitch about that endlessly. :eyes:
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rpannier Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:05 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. Well when he loses he can run against her
and lose there as well.
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LynneSin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:08 AM
Response to Original message
10. BTW - Pennsylvania Secretary of State is appointed by the Governor
which since Ed Rendell is a democrat, we should be ok there.

Probably the bigger issue will be Santorum's people infiltrating the urban areas in hopes of hassling voters while waiting in line to vote and questioning whether or not they can vote.

I was going to help Lois Murphy on election day, but I think I could do more good helping in downtown Philadelphia to ensure this does not happen
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Greeby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 08:21 AM
Response to Original message
11. Lets see
The three states which have the most competitive Senate races have Democratic Secretaries of State.
Whilst the obvious election theft thiefdoms of Ken Blackwell and George III's Florida, the Repukes are quite obviously losing anyway.
Explain to me how they are going to steal it now? :shrug:

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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-30-06 09:44 AM
Response to Original message
14. This Post DOES Make Me Feel Better!
Thank you! You're right, it will be harder for Repubs to steal these states. :thumbsup:
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