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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-28-06 11:21 PM
Original message
My House predictions
I predict we'll take the House back, winning these:

AZ-01: Corrupt Repuke incumbent in a marginal district
AZ-08: Even the NRCC has conceded this seat. They nominated a far right nut to replace a long term moderate in a moderate district. Bad move.
CO-07: Democratic leaning open seat in a state where we're cleaning house in the governor's race.
CT-02: It's a very Democratic district, currently held by a Repuke largely by fluke. We should take it in a year like this.
CT-04: If Shays were smart, he could've held on, even in this year. But after idiotic comments about Foley and Abu Ghraib, he's done.
FL-13: Harris is so bad she must be tainting her old district, since polls show it leaning our way.
FL-16: Thank you Mark Foley...that's all I'll say.
IN-02: Very weak Repuke incumbent facing a strong challenger in a district known to be swing.
IN-08: The Repuke has pretty much given up and quit campaigning. The Democrat running is basically a DINO, but it's a pretty conservative district, so I'll take anyone from it who'll vote for Pelosi.
IN-09: Ex-congressman who narrowly lost last election is running again. He should win it this time.
IA-01: It's a Democratic-leaning seat and open.
KY-03: This is a seat that we SHOULD hold, but keep losing it by a hair. This year, we should finally take it.
MN-06: It's the right year to be running a child safety advocate, especially when the Repuke is a theocratic far-right complete crazy.
NM-01: We got a great candidate with the state Attorney General in a Democratic leaning seat hitting hard against a Repuke incumbent who's done a lot of covering up for Bush.
NY-24: It's an open seat and we got a great candidate in a year when Hillary and Spitzer are going to clean house.
NC-11: We have a former football star running against a weak and corrupt Repuke incumbent.
OH-01: It's a marginal seat, and being a Repuke in Ohio this year is like wearing a scarlet letter.
OH-15: Another seat we can thank Foley and Bob Taft for.
OH-18: And we can also thank corrupt Repuke Bob Ney for tainting his seat and handing it to us.
PA-06: Marginal district where the Repuke barely held on last time.
PA-07: We have a great candidate in a decorated former Navy admiral running against yet another corrupt Repuke.
PA-10: Repuke incumbent gets caught not only cheating on his wife, but choking and almost killing his mistress. Even a district this conservative isn't going to reelect that scumbag.
TX-22: Thank you DeLay
VA-02: A weak Repuke running against a very strong Democratic challenger in a state we're making good inroads in.
WI-08: The Repukes nominated a boring Bush mouthpiece in this open seat. We have a candidate self-funding with $1.5 million. Kohl will be kicking ass and we can take this one.

A gain of 25 seats, putting us at 228, to the Repukes' 207.
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SharonAnn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-28-06 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
1. From your lips (fingers) to God's ears.
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njdemocrat106 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-29-06 12:32 AM
Response to Original message
2. Intersting predictions
Personally, I feel we're going to pick up quite a few seats in New York, thanks to the Spitzer and Clinton momentum in that state.
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Mz Pip Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-29-06 12:37 AM
Response to Original message
3. Sigh
No changes in CA.

THere are a couple of Repugs I'd love to see GONE.

Pombo
Doolittle
BIlbray

Oh, well. We're gerrymandered up the wazzoo in CA. Nothing changes.

Mz Pip
:dem:
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Eric J in MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-29-06 12:44 AM
Response to Original message
4. Regarding Minnesota,
...I have more confidence in our winning MN-1 (Democrat Tim Walz) than MN-6 (Democrat Patty Wetterling.)

In 2004, Bush got 51% in MN-1 and 57% in MN-6.
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-29-06 12:58 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. I live in MN-1, so I hope you're right
and I've been campaigning for Walz like crazy. I have a huge stack of literature for him sitting next to me right now I'm going to drop tommorow. But I think it all comes down to the Repukes, and Walz is running against an entrenched incumbent, while Wetterling is running against a complete nut.

Still, I'd be extremely happy to see both of them pull off wins on election day.
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Eric J in MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-29-06 01:33 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. The TV ads I've seen against Michelle Bachmann...
Edited on Sun Oct-29-06 01:35 AM by Eric J in MN
...don't point out that she's an extemist.

Instead, the DCCC ad says she's too lenient about sex offenders, which is a charge no one will buy.

They could do an ad saying, "Michelle Bachmann thinks God told her to run. Do we want someone so egotistical in US Congress" but they're afraid to touch the religious extremist angle because it might offend people.
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Infinite Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-29-06 01:24 AM
Response to Original message
6. Don't forget MN-01 n/t
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-29-06 01:25 AM
Response to Original message
7. Colorado Democratic sweep is predicted here.
Not just CO-7, but 6 (Bill Winter vs Xenophobic), 5 (Fawcett vs Lamborn), and 3 (Paccione vs Bitch from Ft. Morgan)

Hawkeye-X
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-29-06 01:26 AM
Response to Original message
8. Some real good calls in there.
I hope we can add OH-02 to that list. (Dr. Victoria Wulsin v. Mean Jean Schmidt)

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wiley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-29-06 04:46 AM
Response to Original message
10. You're missing like 4 NY seats.
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