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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-28-06 05:54 PM
Original message
Predictions?
Okay, I don't have a specific number for the House races, but my guess is that we're gonna win the House back. How many seats? I'm going to be conservative and go along with the CW on that - probably between 20 and 25 seats although it'd great if we could go higher (30+).

In the Senate, I'm guessing, at this point a 5-seat gain. I think between Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia, we'll win 1. Most likely either Virginia or Missouri. In all three races though, the Republicans are ahead by a very narrow margin. Claire McCaskill here in Missouri may be taken over the top by the stem-cell initiative. The two races appear to be merging.

Earlier, the stem cell initiative was passing by 60 or 70+ percent and many "YES" on Amendment 2 were voting Talent. In the last few weeks, support for the initiative has dropped to the mid-to-upper 50s (high 40s in one poll) as antiabortion groups, evangelical churchs, and the Catholic Church (including Archbishop Burke) have come out strongly against it. As a result, I think many stem-cell supporters are reconsidering their support for Talent, even while McCaskill is losing some rural votes as this issue gains more prominence.

So I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get ONE of these seats, but a win in none of these 3 is possible.

I think Cardin (D) will win in Maryland and I think Menendez (D) will win in NJ (although narrowly).

I also think, unfortunately, Joe Lieberman's going to win in Connecticut. It's less than 2 weeks until election day and there has been no movement in Lamont's numbers. (Full disclosure: I initially had been wary of trying to unseat Lieberman; I viewed him as annoying, especially on the war, but figured that by making his ouster a liberal cause we were greatly inflating his importance. I did come to support Lamont's victory, however, because Joe's primary campaign seriously turned me off and I was happy to see him lose. If I were a CT voter I would vote Lamont, but I think Lamont seriously missed the opportunity to redefine the race in the days following the primary.)

So to sum up, 20-25 seats in the House, 5 in the Senate. I also think we'll pick up the governorships of NY, MA, OH, MD, MN, and NV.
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CanonRay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-28-06 06:05 PM
Response to Original message
1. A Nervous Wreck, Drunk by 8pm...my only prediction
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Psst_Im_Not_Here Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-28-06 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. I'm with you Ray!!!
I tell ya, this local race will drive me insane!! Fawcett HAS to win!
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theoldman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-28-06 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
2. I learned long ago not to predict. Things can change at the last
minute. I am still waiting for the October surprise. We have three days left.
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TheWraith Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-28-06 07:15 PM
Response to Original message
3. Speaking cautiously, I too would say 20-25 seats in the House.
In cautious mode, I'm not making any predictions about the Senate.

Less cautiously, my hope is for ~35-40 seats in the house, and 6-7 in the Senate. Cardin, Lieberman, and Menendez all win. Talent and Burns get taken out. In an ideal world, I see Allen losing too, but I'm not confidant enough to say that we run the table in the Senate seats.
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Infinite Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-28-06 08:34 PM
Response to Original message
5. Mine...
21-23. If I'm wrong, my guess is it will be because of a huge wave giving us nearly 35 seats.
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mnhtnbb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-28-06 10:00 PM
Response to Original message
6. I predict we'll be disappointed.
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Doctor_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-28-06 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
7. Around 10 seats.
Edited on Sat Oct-28-06 10:04 PM by TOJ
Voter suppression/intimidation/fraud/etc. will be rampant. The Media will respond by leading three-day cheers for Smirk's "successful" 11th-hour campaigning. We will come to DU and compalin to each other.
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Joe Bacon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-29-06 01:30 AM
Response to Original message
8. Sadly, I see the GOP holding on
The GOP will keep the House, with a majority between 5 and 10. For the Senate, I think Democrats will pick up Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana and Virginia and the shocker of the night will be in Nevada, where Jack Carter will unseat Ensign. The nuts will come out of the woodwork to keep Talent in Missouri and the Stem Cell Initiative will fail. Corker's ad has destroyed any chance Ford could win in Tennessee. Sadly, I think Republicans will knock Menendez out and elect Kean in New Jersey. I also expect Chaffee to hold on in Rhode Island. The Republicans will also pick up Connecticut when LIEberman jumps to the GOP after his win. The net Senate gain for Democrats will be +3 after LIEberman defects.
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