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Why OBAMA May Run: Timing

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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 03:37 AM
Original message
Why OBAMA May Run: Timing
I know a lot of people are a little bit surprised that Obama is seriously considering running for President in '08, a mere 4 years after he was first elected to the Senate.

A look at the presidential election cycle in the coming decades, however, makes it clear why Obama is considering a run.

Simply put, 2008 may well be his best chance at running for President. If he doesn't run now, he may not be able to run in the future, and certainly not from the position of near-universal popularity that he currently enjoys.

2008 will be an open race featuring a Democrat and a Republican running to succeed a two-term Republican. Historically, open-seat races following two terms of one party lean are narrow and lean towards the opposition. 1960, which followed 8 years of Republican rule, led to a narrow Democratic victory. 1968 followed eight years of Democratic rule and was a narrow Republican victory. 1976 followed eight years of Republican rule and was a narrow Democratic victory. And 2000 followed eight years of Democratic rule and resulted in a narrow (highly questionable) Republican "victory." 1988 was an exception, due to Michael Dukakis' exceptionally poor campaign.

In short, in 2008, the historical trends indicate that a close race should favor the Democrats.

After that, the picture becomes muddier. 2012 would seem to be a Democratic victory no matter what. We'd be in only the 4th year of Democratic rule (which typically favors retention) or in the 12th year of Republican rule (which also likely favors the opposition). However, running against an incumbent is always difficult. And if the incumbent is a Democrat, then Obama is NOT going to challenge them (barring something remarkable).

That means that he may have to wait until 2016, at which point he could well be running against either an incumbent Vice President for the presidential nomination (a daunting task) or running against an incumbent Republican president (again a daunting task). He may then not get another chance until 2020, and while he's young enough to remain a viable candidate by then, he'll no longer be a fresh face.

In presidential politics, you have to strike when the iron is hot. If Obama were to run in 2016 or later, he'd have been in the Senate for years and would likely be eclipsed by younger up-and-coming stars from various governorships or Senate seats.

His best shots are 2008 and 2012 and between them, 2012 offers too many unknowns to commit to it right now.
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Sherman A1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 03:48 AM
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1. Interesting theory
You may very well be correct in your assessment of the situation. I would like to see him run and as he said yesterday on MTP, it is a long process and let it run him through his paces. If the people think he is up to the job, then super! If not then that is the decision of the people. He stated something to the effect that he has been getting a lot of positive feedback of late on the book tour. So why not at least consider it? I think he could be a very good leader, but that will be sorted out if he chooses to run. I find him inspiring and we could all use some inspiration in our leaders these days. I also like that very, very basic ability to think and speak in complete sentences which we have been without for say the last 6 years?
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acmavm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 04:21 AM
Response to Original message
2. A little surprised? No. Amused? Oh hell yeah.
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no_hypocrisy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 05:45 AM
Response to Original message
3. He certainly would be the proverbial wild card.
Think about it for a moment. The combination of match-ups with Obama:

1. Obama vs. Hillary
2. Obama vs. John McCain
3. Obama vs. Rudolph Guiliani
3. Obama vs. Bill Frist
4. Obama vs. the presidency of George Bush

Looks good and promising on its face. But he has to have viable ideas that can be implimented and the ability to lead the democratic party. And without money, he doesn't have a chance.
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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 06:02 AM
Response to Original message
4. His timing to announce is lousy. It breaks the news cycle for 06
races. May be it would be time for potential 08 nominees to observe some restraint. These last two weeks should be focused on winning in 06, not personnal ambitions.
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beaconess Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 11:29 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. He did not "announce" anything . . . he simply answered a question
He didn't say he was running. He said he was now considering it.

The only way to have avoided this was for him to have declined doing any interviews at all until after the election. And then we would have been bombarded with complaints about "Where's Obama? Why isn't he out there? Why isn't he speaking out? Who does he think he is to lay low when we need him most?!"
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nickinSTL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 11:00 AM
Response to Original message
5. there's another option...
VP.

Personally, I think Obama's biggest chance might be to run for Pres in '08 to get recognition, etc. Get and accept the VP nom, be an involved VP and then run on his own in 2016.

Right now, I'm not sure he's got a great chance at the Pres spot in '08...for a number of reasons.
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
7. As much as I Like Obama, I don't think he's "wartime" enough
Face it.

The next five or more years are going to be the US military involved in the mess that Bush has created in the Middle East with the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and possibly Iran. All this could spread into further regions of the World, like Asia and even the Pacific with ever-growing Islamic fundamentalism growing in Indonesia. China is going to be flexing its muscles in 2008 with Taiwan. Who knows what will happening with North Korea.

While I enjoy Obama'a presence, his speeches and even his propensity to appeal to moderates with his policy ideals, I just don't think he will come across as "wartime" enough to face up to the scrutiny that running for President entails.

If he runs, he wouldn't be my personal first choice. If he was the nominee, I'd certainly support him. But if he were to run against someone like McCain (who I'm no fan of), he would come across as "too young to face the dangers" of the World. That's my opinion.

Add that the media loves to find a "new car", a new front runner to focus on. They build them up and then knock them down. I wouldn't want to see Obama's flame burn out so soon.

If Obama runs in 2012, he will be 53. By then, he would have a lot of proof that he could handle the foreign policy issues that would be important when running for president in these times.
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maxsolomon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-23-06 12:15 PM
Response to Original message
8. IT IS LATE OCTOBER 2006. FOCUS.
obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama obama

:eyes:

IT IS LATE OCTOBER 2006. FOCUS.
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