Party switchers: If control of congress changes, watch a few...jump ship

[ProSense]

Party switchers

If control of congress changes, watch for a few people to jump ship

By Charles Mahtesian

Updated: 38 minutes ago
The widely held notion that Democrats are poised to win at least the House is grounded in the premise that 2006 bears an eerie resemblance to 1994, the last time control of the chamber changed hands.

If the analogy holds true, losing the House might be just the beginning of the House Republicans' troubles: The post-1994 political era has demonstrated that a congressional caucus newly relegated to minority status continues hemorrhaging long after Election Day.

That was the bitter, unexpected lesson that Democrats learned in the aftermath of the 1994 upheaval. Within a year, the scent of majority power had enticed five House Democrats and two Senate Democrats to switch their allegiance to the Republican Party. And that wasn't the end of the Democratic Party's bleeding. As the durability of the House GOP's majority became clear, three more Democrats found their way to the Republican Conference between 2000 and 2004, each defection making the party's climb back to power that much steeper.

Ambition and self-preservation
Despite vigorous claims to the contrary, nearly every case of party-switching involved a calculus that apparently had as much to do with ambition and self-preservation as ideology. It's no coincidence that nearly all office-holding converts, either in Congress or at the statehouse level, join a legislative majority rather than a party out of power. And if they aren't joining an existing majority, then they are providing the critical seat that puts a politically ascendant party into the majority.

more...

[greenbriar]

1. so who changes parties???

Chaffee?
Lieberman

[SaveElmer]

7. Well if the recent polls hold up...

Chaffee is going to be defeated...I HOPE

[central scrutinizer]

2. I'm glad we lost those Dixiecrat opportunists in 1994

They were the last vestige of the Jim Crow Democrats and good riddance. Any of those Bush enablers that want to try to become Democrats can go piss up a rope. Maybe Ron Paul is the only exception.

[GainesT1958]

3. I look foward to seeing such an invite...

Extended by Harry Reid to one Olympia Snowe and one Susan Collins in the near future!

B-)

[Bluzmann57]

4. You mean Lieberman will switch to the Democratic Party?

Ah never mind. That isn't likely to happen.

[benddem]

5. are there any repugs

who have a consistently moderate voting record? I think anyone who did switch wouldn't get any leadership position in the Dem caucus.

[The_Casual_Observer]

6. I'd like to see condi rice brought to justice along with the others.

[onenote]

8. I think its pretty unlikely

Its interesting that the article doesn't mention a single name. Oh, it suggests that we "just look at the roster of the moderate Republican Main Street Partnership and circle the Northeastern and Midwestern members." Well, here's the list: http://www.republicanmainstreet.org/members.htm

At most, a la Jeffords, its conceivable that one or two will become "independents" - maybe even Snowe or Collins. But I seriously doubt you'll see much switching.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

9. Repubs Don't Switch To The Evil Democratic Party

It seems as if only Democrats enjoy going to the Dark Side.

Think Anakin Skywalker. It rarely works the other way around.

Sith's deal in absolutes. Once you've crossed over, there's no going back.

I'm afraid of Lieberman switching to be a repub, and tilting the balance in their favor, if it ends up in a tie or one seat away from a tie.