Op-Chart; The State of Iraq: An Update

[ProSense]

Op-Chart

Op-Chart; The State of Iraq: An Update

By NINA KAMP, MICHAEL O'HANLON and AMY UNIKEWICZ
Published: October 1, 2006

FACTS have a way of shrinking under the weight of politics. The fierce partisan debate last week set off by the new National Intelligence Estimate on the struggle against terrorism was a case in point. Similarly, our own tracking statistics from the last four years in Iraq will provide ammunition for both supporters and critics of the war. But one fact seems clear: this year’s violence was the worst since liberation, and probably the worst over all since 1991.

American troop fatalities, thankfully, declined somewhat this summer, but it is hard to view that as a positive development since much of the modest improvement was due to the reduced rate of American patrols (down from a daily average of 400 to, in the last year, 100 a year). When American forces do venture out of their base, they are in as much peril as ever. Similarly, the drastic falloff in kidnappings of foreigners primarily reflects the fact that foreigners now rarely leave the Green Zone in Baghdad. Iraqis continue to be kidnapped in large numbers.

While the economy is far from healthy, it has shown some improvement. Oil production has returned, at least for the moment, to levels seen at the end of Saddam Hussein’s rule, and electricity production is at higher levels, especially outside of Baghdad. School enrollment continues to increase; childhood vaccination rates are now respectable; Iraq’s media continue to flourish.

However, unemployment remains at 30 percent or more, as coalition and Iraqi authorities continue to resist the notion of adopting a Roosevelt-style public works program to mitigate joblessness. Inflation is up; private sector investment remains weak because of the security environment; gross domestic product growth has been modest and will probably slow because of the decline in global oil prices. Fuel supplies are stagnant in the face of rising demand.

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[beachmom]

1. American vs. Civilian deaths

That was interesting that it mentioned that the reason troop fatalities went down was because of reduced patrols. Of course, we like to see less American deaths, but there definitely is a correlation between lower American deaths and increased civilian deaths. This is because there is total anarchy and the only time neighborhoods calm down is when the Americans start going in. However, once they leave, the situation goes back to how it was. And, long term, the presence of American troops fuels the violence. Plus there aren't enough troops to secure every town and neighborhood all the time.

So basically, Bush, for political reasons, wants to reduce the number of American deaths by reducing number of patrols. But this leads to increased civilian deaths. However, none of it will work. It is the WORST of both worlds to half ass secure a country with intermittant patrols, while politically that makes the situation worse.

There is simply no leadership in the WH for this horrible mess in Iraq.

[ProSense]

2. True! When Americans go in

the violence against Americans increases and bumps up the death toll. It happened during the the Jan. 2005 Iraq election when 127 troops were killed. The death toll for Sept. 2006 is 70-72. American troops will never be able to stop the violence, and will only incur significant casualties attempting the impossible.

[ProSense]

3. Iraq sectarian violence more worrisome than insurgency: Khalilzad

Iraq sectarian violence more worrisome than insurgency: Khalilzad

31 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Iraq's continuing insurgency, while still a major concern to US officials, has taken a back seat to sectarian violence, Washington's ambassador to Baghdad said.

"I believe that a main part of the violence now is sectarian violence, violence between death squads associated with militias," US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad said.

"It is true that the insurgency is still there and targeting us. And the terrorists are there, although I believe that Al-Qaeda terrorists in Iraq are weaker now than they were a while back, and that they are under pressure," he said, speaking on CNN television's "Late Edition" program.

"But there is the sectarian violence that has increased."

But Khalilzad also said that it seemed "plausible" that Sunni-Shia violence could diminish in coming months.

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061001/pl_afp/usiraqunrestkhalilzad_061001194729

Gunmen kidnap 26 workers in Baghdad

By QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 7 minutes ago

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Gunmen kidnapped 26 workers from a refrigerated food factory Sunday in western Baghdad in what appeared to be a new sectarian attack, a security official said. The kidnapped workers included Shiites and Sunnis, and they included three women, Col. Abdul-Karim Khalaf told The Associated Press.

more...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061001/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq