Which Senate races might we win from the GOP?

[Hamlette]

I live in a state where we will NEVER will (think Hatch) so I'm pulling for 6 other states to do it. I'd love to get updated info on races we might win.

Last I heard, Dewine was down by 8.5% (Yippie!), and Chaffee is likely to lose his primary which means the Dem in RI will will.

Webb has a shot in Virginia (or am I dreaming) and I heard tonight the GOP has completely given up on Santorum, think he doesn't have a prayer.

Burns is said to be losing in Montana. Anyone have recent poll numbers?

Am I missing one? Which ones are we gonna win? Are there 6 races out there we can take?

And the house, anyplace with up to date info on those races?

[longship]

1. Here's the rundown.

Five look fairly certain:

In order by most likely:
Burns (MT) Santorum (PA)
Talent (MO), DeWine (OH), Chafee (RI)

Three more are less likely (again in order by likelihood):
Empty-Frist (TN)
Allen (VA)
Kyl (AZ)

A real long shot
Ensign (NV)

None other are in play at this time.

Note that this is not a static situation.
One thing of which we can be certain. The list will change.

Note: not a single Dem held seat is in similar jeopardy as the top five.
Not one.

[sipsake]

2. Harold Ford Jr. will take the seat vacated by Frist here in Tennessee

He's just pulled ahead in the polls against Bob Corker and he'll keep increasing the lead. Corker's got nothing. So score another for the Dems!

NASHVILLE – After more than three months and $6 million of advertising by Bob Corker, U.S. Senate nominee Harold Ford leads, heading into the final stretch of the race, 44% to 42%. A new poll sample of 1,118 likely Tennessee voters conducted Aug. 10-15 also shows Corker’s negatives have dramatically increased.


The poll, conducted by Pete Brodnitz of Benenson Strategy Group for the Ford campaign, shows Democrats and independents coalescing behind Ford while Corker’s base is failing to unite. With a margin of error +/- 2.93%, the poll shows Ford leading Corker by 2 points.


In June, internal polling showed Ford’s favorable rating at 47%. The new results show Ford’s favorable rating increasing to 55%. During the same period, Corker’s unfavorable rating increased sharply by 10 points from 16% to 26%.


“We are encouraged by the numbers to continue pursuing our aggressive strategy of staying on tv and radio with positive ads touting Harold Ford’s commitment to developing new energy sources and defeating terrorists here at home and abroad,” said Ford Senior Advisor Michael Powell.


“With national security, terrorism, immigration, the economy and healthcare foremost on voters’ minds heading into the crucial fall stretch, our polling shows that Tennesseans are convinced that better answers to these challenges exist than the ones the Republicans in Washington have offered.


“Tennesseans are hungry for new and effective leadership in Washington, and that is what Harold Ford Jr. offers.”

[nickinSTL]

3. MO is a possibility

the polls are still close, but last I heard McCaskill (D) is slightly ahead of the incumbent Talent (R).

Talent has a significant edge in campaign funding (of course), but the combination of Bush's increasing unpopularity and the very unpopular decisions of the Repub governor in addition to Talent's opposition to funding stem cell research (which he periodically abandons for political expediency) are harming his candidacy.

Of course, there is also the problem of voting machines in highly Democratic areas (like Diebold in St. Louis).

[Dr.Phool]

4. Talent in Missouri might be on the way out.

I spent the week-end at a wedding in St. Louis. I got to spend some time talking with my niece's husband, who is a Republican lobbyist in the statehouse there.

He said things are so screwed up in Missouri, that even the lobbyists are turning on Blount and Talent. He said the whole state is being run by 25 year olds with really bad attitudes.

[Hamlette]

5. great news everyone, thanks for answering

my son worked on the Senate Majority Project (dems) this last summer, now he's working on the Maria Cantwell campaign and I don't get updates on the other races!

Yeah, I've got a problem.

Junkie.

House still looking good?

[Rainscents]

6. Montana for sure...

They don't have diebold and they love there new Leberal Governor!

[Hav]

7. .

I saw banners for Tester and Carter from other DUers.
They seemed to be nice and decent guys who I'd like to see winning. How are their chances?
Last I heard, Tester was close but Carter still trailing much?


edit: If a Dem wins a seat in a rather red state because of the current political climate, how likely is it that they can keep their seats?

[Hamlette]

8. dems in red states, something I know a little about

unfortunately

You are right, often they are flashes in the pan, in for a term or two and then out. But that's not nothing. We have 'em while they are there giving us a chance to win in other, more even areas, and sometimes states shift, Utah and Idaho were blue 30 years ago and produced some great statesmen, Frank Church and Frank Moss to name but two.

Seems the lesson of Blackwell (and Harris) is all politics IS local. We need to try to win the state held offices that "control" the votes so they are not surpressed as in Ohio and Florida. Taking back the House and/or Senate will give us a bigger voice so we are not drowned out by the GOP as we are now.

We have a dem in Utah, the only one in a national office. His dad was the last of the Dem governors before the state turned blue and he is very conservative, I don't agree with him on lots of issues BUT he votes for Dem leadership in the House which is really a much bigger deal than you realize. It's not about Pelosi vs Hastert, its who controls the committee chairs. There is a lot of power in those positions.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Here are the odds from Tradesports

Far too many posts around here list the top 5 as all but certain and nonsense like that. In one of those, Missouri, we are a underdog and many are small favoritism. Then there is a major dropoff to the 6th and lower.

Also, it's hardly true that none of our seats is in similar jeopardy. Menendez in New Jersey has been a pick-em or slight favorite for months. Too many people look at the polls and assume whoever is leading in the polls is the favorite. That is hardly the case. For example, in 2004 Bush was always the betting favorite, even when Kerry had consensus poll leads in the spring and summer. This year many incumbents have been favored despite trailing in the polls, Granholm for example.

The odds on Democrats taking senate control is trading at about 18%.

These are the theoretical Democratic win odds in races that are at least somewhat competitive, rounded using current Tradesports odds. Democratic win percentage listed first:

* Arizona 8-92
* Connecticut 36-64 (Lieberman favored)
* Maryland 75-25
* Michigan 84-16
* Minnesota 85-15
* Missouri 46-54
* Montana 63-37
* Nevada 14-86
* New Jersey 53-47
* Ohio 64-36
* Pennsylvania 80-20
* Tennessee 30-70
* Virginia 25-75
* Washington 80-20

[SPCAworks]

10. some are looking good

Dewine is 50/50 going down...

Santorum is 50/50 going down...

Chafee stays as well as Burns.

But don't count NJ before it's hatched... Kean up by 2% in the latest poll.

Dems probably end up with 49.

[Hamlette]

11. So, according to this, we pick up 3? Ohio, PA and Montana?

The numbers on Az are pretty disappointing but getting rid of Santorum and DeWine will be nice.

Dang.

[nickshepDEM]

12. I hope we pick up 5-6, but Im realistic.

Confident Pickups
PA

Slightly less confident, but still possible
OH
MT
RI
MO

Probably wishful thinking, but we have a small chance
VA
TN

Move on, nothing to see here

AZ
NV


And dont forget we still have to defend
NJ (I think this one goes Republican)
MD (Steele is a much better candidate than he's given credit for)
MN (Klobuchar is beginning to impress me as a candidate, but Im not convinced she's a shoo-in just yet)
MI (There is an anti-incumbent wave brewing in MI)
WA (Her lead has dropped from 15 to about 6).