WTF is up with PA? Santorum catching up?

[fujiyama]

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-a1_5pollaug06,0,462236.story

The good news is Lynn Swann isn't going anywhere.
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| Buoyed by a summer advertising blitz, U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., has narrowed Bob Casey's lead in the battle for public opinion, closing to within 6 points of the Democratic state treasurer, a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll has found.

In arguably the nation's marquee U.S. Senate contest, Casey holds a 45 percent to 39 percent advantage in the telephone poll of 550 registered voters.

For many months — and as recently as March — The Morning Call/Muhlenberg and the separate Franklin & Marshall College's Keystone Poll showed Casey up by 12 percentage points or more.

Santorum started closing the gap in late spring, those polls found, and seems to have momentum. An April Morning Call/Muhlenberg College survey showed Casey 8 percentage points ahead. Keystone had Casey up 16 points in February, compared with 6 in May.

To be sure, two other statewide polls still show the race to be a blowout. June surveys by Quinnipiac College and Rasmussen Reports both put Casey ahead by double digits.
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[liberal N proud]

1. Gotta get close enough to steal.

[Quakerfriend]

2. Exactly! Santorum is loathed here in PA by all except the most

wacko of fundies!

[Junkdrawer]

3. PA has gone touchscreen with NO voter verified paper trail...

Absolutely ANYTHING goes in PA from now on...

BTW: Rendell's administration fought audit trails tooth-and-nail. Lynn Swann isn't going anywhere you say... :think:

[AX10]

4. Pa also has electronic touch screen voting machines.

[flyarm]

5. thank the green party candidate!!..yes the real upfront

green party scum bag!!
who got on the ballot with $100,000 Santorum republican money and petitions to get him on the ballot...

yes the greens have sold out the dem candidates by taking republican money.. once again!!

you know the greens have to help the rethuglicans get it close enough so they can steal an election once again!!


fly

[acmejack]

6. I am sure that's it.

The green has siphoned off what, 20% of Casey's support. Get real.

[MrBenchley]

12. Greens: 0.5% of the vote, 100% of the ratfucking

[acmejack]

16. Always good 2 have you contribute something meaningful 2 the conversation!

Thats what is so endearing about you Benchley. Perhaps these people should have no right to express their opinions through the vote unless they vote the way YOU choose! You would thrive in the GOP. After all, the DLC and the GOP are really the same, aren't they?

[MrBenchley]

17. No one can accuse you of being meaningful

Now go defend the Greens/ ratfucking to someone else.

"After all, the DLC and the GOP are really the same, aren't they?"
No, as it turned out, that was the Green party that turns out to be in cahoots with the Republicans. Telling that many of the same people who have been running down the DLC turn out to be Green-leaning asswipes.
 

[acmejack]

18. I'm not a green you idiot!

You people are all warmed over republicans just like marshall"the moose" whittman.

[MrBenchley]

19. Greens: 0.5% of the vote, 100% of the ratfucking

[RamboLiberal]

8. What's happened is Santorum has trotted out his

cute Santorum family ads, and that he helped get drug coverage in Medicare (wait till they hit the donut hole Ricky) and his surrogates touting he supports SS while the Casey people sit silently by on their lead. I swear I see/hear 5-10 Santorum ads for every 1 Casey ad.

Casey's campaign is resembling Kerry's August silence.

[rep the dems]

9. The only one I've heard so far is Santorum claiming that

Casey is lying about his record, then goes on to say that Casey has sunk to a new low and that even dems like Rendell are against him. It ends by saying something like "There's no room for negative candidates like Bob Casey in Washington." I couldn't believe my ears the first time I heard it.

[fuzzyball]

15. Why do you think the Green's should help democrats?

Everyone is in politics for 1 reason only....money.

[napi21]

7. I hear ya, but Nov. is THREE MONTHS away. I really is true

that even ONE MONTH in Politics is a life time and anything can happen!

Also, don't ignore the last paragraph in the OP. This is ONE POLL!

[creeksneakers2]

10. Even with a 10 point lead its closer than it was

I worry about Casey (and all the other Democrats this year) because they never poll much better than 50%. The GOP runs close to 40%. That leaves a block of undecideds of 10%.

Figure 2004 was close to 50/50. So Democrats have all the people they had in 2004 but the GOP doesn't. That means the undecideds are most likely to go back to the GOP, if they vote at all. The undecideds are right leaning moderates.

Casey was up by much more than 10 points months ago but Santorum has narrowed the race with some very well done ads aimed at moderate voters.

The obvious strategy for Casey would be to run ads showing Santorum for the right wing extremist nut case that he is. Of course, that means a negative ad campaign, and negative ads don't play well to moderates. Santorum is running ads about negative campaigning by Casey. That's an attempt to head off a Casey attempt to portray Santorum as way to the right.

This could end up being a very close race and it would be well if the Greens and their GOP assisting campaigns would take a flying leap. Casey needs to move soon before Santorum can redefine himself.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. That race has never been a cinch

Too many DUers act like this has been a certain avalanche, a northern replica of the Katherine Harris race. Not even close. The betting line has always been in the 4/1 range, not 20/1 or higher like dozens of other races. I got bashed a month or two ago when I thought I made the obvious comment that the race would naturally close, due to incumbency and Santorum going on the air with an ad blitz. He had almost $9 million in the bank last time I checked.

Casey will win but I'm sure there will be more polls showing a tightening. It's not like Pennsylvania is a double digit state in our favor. More like 4 points.

One thing that worries me a bit about some of our candidates this year is they have lost previously, while seeking major positions. Casey lost to Rendell in the primary. Whitehouse lost while seeking the governorship in 2002. McCaskill has also lost, in the 2004 gov race, albeit only a few points. Obviously there are stepladder aspects to a career but in the best scenario it would be a terrific up and coming politician who was identified by the voters as special, and successful on the first try. I'm always nervous when we nominate someone who has been rejected previously, like York three times in a row while seeking the Rhode Island governorship.

[mopinko]

13. gotta put out the bogus polls, so that when you steal the votes

it doesn't look so obvious.

[wisteria]

14. Santorum has been running political commercials constantly.

You might think he could part the seas after watching them.

Want to help defeat Santorum? Contribute to Casey!

[Tesha]

20. With two Republicans in the race, why not vote for the real one?

Casey, on far too many issues, is no improvement over Santorum.

So with two Republicans in the race, why not vote for the real one?

More seriously, what's there in this race to motivate pro-choice
and other left-leaning voters to bother coming out to vote?

Tesha