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Fast forward to November '06--We have not won the House or Senate

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linazelle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-07-06 01:45 PM
Original message
Fast forward to November '06--We have not won the House or Senate
Edited on Sun May-07-06 01:46 PM by linazelle
Why? The votes will be cast in our favor, I have no doubt about that. But those votes will not be counted in our favor. And the media will explain it all away neatly.


Republican spin:

"Americans were concerned about 'values.'"

"Americans wanted somebody who wouldn't 'cut and run.'"

"Americans (post your excuse here...)"



Reality:

They will not GIVE Dems control of the House or Senate. And make no mistake about it, control is theirs to give.

They talk about the polls now, and what the people want but all of that will be cast aside by November. In November, though exit polls will still match the current polls, most Americans will never know it. Instead, they will be told what they think. (See aforementioned Republican spin) and everybody will tune in to the next episode of American Idol. You can't even get a good fake political show anymore with the West Wing and the like cancelled.

Republicans know that if control is turned over Bush, and even the press themselves, will be investigated. In the Hunting of the President, the number one reason given for going after Clinton was that he wanted to end the very corruption that Pelosi talked about today--corruption that is exponentially worse than when Clinton was in offce. And I shudder when I recall the way they dogged Clinton.

They got rid of Daschle and replaced him with Pelosi. This morning, Russert all but threatened Pelosi's leadership by asking if she WOULD BE the speaker in '06. (How the hell does she know that now and why was he so intent on getting her to answer?)


"Fool me once, shame on -- shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again."

Three times' the "charm."
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-07-06 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
1. We better start getting our ducks in row as far as emigration goes
If they want to turn this country into a Jesus Holy American Empire, they will do so without me living under their holy jackboots.

The only remaining question is where would we flee? Canada is too close, and it could be swallowed in an American version of Hitler's Anschluss. Mexico and points South offer more real estate to escape, until we get to Tierra del Fuego.

Israel is looking more appealing each day...
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Stargleamer Donating Member (636 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-07-06 01:57 PM
Response to Original message
2. Look these races for the most part aren't all that competitive. . .
Krugman estimates that the polls that show people want the Democrats to regain Congress aren't as heavily tilted toward the Democrats as they need to be to offset the lack of competitiveness. You have to remember that although people are vastly preferring Democrats to Republicans in general, when asked if they will vote for the incumbent in their district they largely say "yes", regardless of whether the incumbent is Republican or not. Krugman estimates that in order for Democrats to regain Congress, voters have to prefer Democrats by an unfeasible 80% to 20% to offset the lack of competitiveness.

Of course, I hate this--I wish so much for the Democrats to regain Congress and for Henry Waxman to be the chair of a real (as opposed to the current fake) investigative panel/impeachment committee.
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tridim Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-07-06 02:08 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. "voters have to prefer Democrats by an unfeasible 80% to 20%..
Edited on Sun May-07-06 02:09 PM by tridim
to offset the lack of competitiveness"

That's only been the case since Diebold's been on the scene. Winning 55% of the vote used to be a landslide back when voting was real. I would guess that back in the day, holding 60% favorability pre-election was a guaranteed win.

One of two things will happen after the 06 results are in.. Either the Dems will win big, or the pukes will steal it so obviously that people will be very angry. Hopefully they'll join us in the uprising.
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AlGore-08.com Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-07-06 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. It's not just Diebold - - gerrymandering affects the House a lot
Most Congressional districts have been drawn to favor the incumbent - - it's very easy to do.

Say you have a county with three cities.

The largest city always goes Dem by around 65%.

The middle size city is a swing city - - it goes 55% Dem sometimes, 55% Rep sometimes.

The smallest city always goes Rep by around 65%.

You simply draw the district lines so that the areas which support Dems are divided. The parts that support Reps are joined together. Then you then take these pieces - - small Dem supporting pieces and larger Rep supporting pieces - - and join them together to make districts. If you do it "right", the numbers of folks in each district who support the Reps outnumber the Dems by such a huge margin that it is virtually impossible for the Reps to loose that seat. (By the way, this is not a new tactic thought up by the Republicans, this is a very, very old strategy and the Dems have used it too.)

That's why national polls are not the best indicator of how 2006 will go. You need to look at the polls in individual districts to find out of the swing to Dems is enough to carry that particular district.
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linazelle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-07-06 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. There you have it--more spin....people want change but won't vote for it
Thanks.
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-07-06 02:27 PM
Response to Original message
5. 20-25 seats in the House, 50 Senate seats, and 26+ Governorships...
will be fine with me.
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Rageneau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-07-06 02:40 PM
Response to Original message
6. We need to start threatening conservative churches...
Threaten them, that is, by requiring them to do what Jesus ordered them to do -- obey the law.

My state went for Bush and I am convinced that was largely because there was intense politicking from the pulpits of conservative churches statewide. My neighbors -- poor working people who ought to vote democrat -- voted rethug instead because their pastors convinced them that the election was all about abortion and gay marriage.

You can bet the farm that the RNC and Rove intend to do the same thing as the '06 election approaches.

But I bet those churches would be less willing to violate the law if they were "threatened" with the certainty that, should democrats win one of the houses of congress, investigations into whether conservative churches have abused their tax-free status by politicking would begin immediately.

I think even churches where the holier-than-thou worship would start to obey the law if they were forced to.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-07-06 03:44 PM
Response to Original message
7. Yes, prepare for the worst from the Bushite-controlled election theft
machines, and strategize on the basis of truth and reality. We CAN get our country back, but it's going to take time--and a lot of hard work and courage.

The problem of the Democratic Party leadership: To some extent the Democratic Party is just a money-laundering machine--your heartfelt donations into the pockets of the war profiteering corporate news monopolies, for political ads. Lots of people profit along the way--political "consultants," advertising agencies, et al--but mainly it's pork for the people who brought you the Iraq War. This is one of the reasons for the DEAFENING SILENCE of the Democratic Party leadership, as Bushite corporations took over our voting system, during the 2002-2004 period. If the Democrats had told people the truth about the non-transparency of our election system, and about the Diebold/E&S/Tom Delay/Bob Ney coup (the "Hack America's Vote Act"--the $4 billion electronic voting boondoggle by which they corrupted and destroyed our election system), people might stop feeding the money-laundering machine with political campaign donations.

The money is not altogether bad. A lot of people are still hooked on TV, even intelligent people--and reaching them is not easy. But that is the situation. Some Dem leaders are positively collusive with the Bushites and their fascist agenda. Others are merely corrupt (military-industrial type corrupt, or electronics in government type corrupt). Some are fearful--with good reason, I might add. To call people with targets on their backs "cowards" is not really fair. Anybody who stands up for the American people today can be targeted at any moment--with "swiftboating" or worse. And some--maybe half the Dem leadership (and 25% of Congress) have taken on the burden of representing all of the people in this country, and do so with amazing courage and stamina. But even they (--with a few rare exceptions) have failed us on the complete loss of integrity of our voting system.

This particular horror--the Dems acquiescence to Bushites counting all our votes behind a veil of corporate secrecy--IS changing. There are grass roots rebellions against it everywhere. Some incredibly courageous state/county election officials are starting to resist. We have at least two good election reform candidates running for secretary of state (in Calif. and Mass.). But because of the entrenched corruption among election officials and legislators, wrought by the "Help America Vote for Bush Act," it is not going to be easy to achieve even basic democracy: transparent elections.

But here are three keys to our success:

1. It is IGNORANCE of the facts that causes depression, demoralization and disempowerment. If you don't know WHY an asshole like Bush is still in the White House, then you might think you are outnumbered and give up. UNDERSTAND the power mechanism that is being used: NON-TRANSPARENT elections; elections that are EASILY riggable (one hacker, a couple of minutes, leaving no trace--millions of votes switched, invisibly, in the blink of an eye).

Tell people the truth! Give them a fighting chance! Engage them in beating the machines--with an overwhelming turnout--and inspire them to help get rid of the machines.

Bumper sticker: "Help Us Beat the Machines--VOTE!"

There is evidence that the machines CAN be beaten by a massive turnout. Also, urge absentee ballot voting in the interim--this at least provides a countable paper ballot (helpful in investigations and for election challenges), and it is a protest against the machines. If enough people do it, these shiny new election theft machines will become obsolete--and then maybe we can get rid of the central tabulators as well.

2. Realize that this is a LONG TERM FIGHT. It's not going to be decided this year--with one election. We must USE this election--for massive gathering of evidence, monitoring election officials' and machine behavior, mounting challenges of suspicious results, filing lawsuits, and assembling the data needed to convince more and more election officials and legislators that NON-TRANSPARENT elections are NOT ACCEPTABLE. This fight for our democracy needs more than hopes and dreams--it needs hard work, citizen vigilance, and effective organization. And NO ONE is going to do this FOR us. Dean is organizing elections in 50 states. He is not, so far as I know, organizing the monitoring effort that is needed to restore transparent elections--nor providing the one thing that we most need, that the party could provide, funding of INDEPENDENT EXIT POLLS to verify election results and detect fraud. (The war profiteering corporate news monopoly exit polls are not to be trusted). But, in any case, it's OUR country. It's up to us to take it back. If we leave this particular matter (our right to vote) to the Democratic Party--even to the good Democrats--we can kiss this country goodbye. That's the mistake we made BEFORE. They let our right to vote be taken away--out of fear, or out of corruption. We MUST get it back!

3. This IS American Revolution II: HOW the votes are counted, and WHO counts them is the critical issue. This is the "tea tax" of the Boston Tea Party. This is the gauntlet that the rightwing billionaires and war profiteers and corporate rulers and Bushite fascists have thrown down. It's as plain as can be. And it is a matter of the SOVEREIGNTY OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. We exercise our sovereignty through voting. That is the power. That is OUR power. And they are telling us that, no, THEY are going to "count" our votes behind a veil of corporate secrecy--and furthermore 'black hole' this fact in their corporate news monopolies, and furthermore bully, bribe and corrupt as many election officials and Democrats as they need to keep a lid on it. So we need to be Tom Paine's and Paul Revere's, and spread the word. They had great odds against them. So do we. They had lots of folks with their heads buried in the sand. So do we. They had masses of people who didn't want to rock the boat. So do we. They had numerous Tory colluders to deal with. So do we. That is ALWAYS the case in an oppressive situation. But what WE have, that they DIDN'T have, is more than 200 years of the most revolutionary government in the history of the world--the one THEY created--and all that history and PRECEDENT behind us for the Sovereignty of the People, as exercised in free and fair elections. We also have a much bigger country, a much more diverse country, and one that is not easy to Nazify. Have hope! COMMUNICATE hope! And get organized!

------------------------------------------------

SOME RESOURCES FOR AMERICAN REVOLUTION II:

Hopeful signs - latest news:

California voters sue the state over Diebold:
www.VoterAction.org is suing the state of California and 18 Calif county registrars on behalf of 25 California voter/plaintiffs, on the illegal Diebold "certification" by Schwarzenegger appointee Bruce McPherson.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
Seven of these counties just promised the judge they would use PAPER BALLOTS, and were dismissed from this lawsuit (4/27/06).
http://kcbs.com/pages/29285.php
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Maryland rejects Diebold:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Florida - anti-trust accusations against Diebold, ES&S and Sequoia, re: heroic Florida election official Ion Sancho:
(FLA AG subpoenas the companies)
http://www.computerworld.com/governmenttopics/governmen...
http://www.tbo.com/news/politics/MGBKSY8W8LE.html
(info & discussion)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Utah county clerk fights back!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

-----

More resources for American Revolution II:

www.votersunite.org (MythBreakers - easy primer on electronic voting--one of the myths is that HAVA requires electronic voting; it does not.)
www.UScountvotes.org (statistical monitoring of '06 and '08 elections--they need donations)


(Activist sites with links to state activist groups or info)
www.votetrustusa.org (news of this great movement from around the country)
www.votersunited.org (good general info, and state links)
www.verifiedvoting.org (great activist site)
www.solarbus.org/election/index.shtml (fab compendium of all election info)

www.freepress.org (devoted to election reform)
www.bradblog.com (also great, and devoted to election reform)
www.TruthIsAll.net (analysis of the 2004 election)* :patriot: :applause: :patriot:
www.votepa.us (well-organized local group of citizen activists in Pennsylvania, where important legal issues are at stake, including state's rights over election systems)
Provisions of the PA lawsuit:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

The Voter Confidence Resolution
http://tinyurl.com/rlnr2 (We Do Not Consent)
http://guvwurld.blogspot.com (GuvWurld blog main page)
http://tinyurl.com/amryg (Voter Confidence Resolution

www.debrabowen.com (Calif Senator running for Sec of State to reform election system)
www.johnbonifaz.com (running for Massachusetts Sec of State on strong election reform and antiwar platform)

*Some tributes to TruthIsAll, who is very ill:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Congressional bills:

Russ Holt's HR 550 requires a real paper ballot, bans secret software in "voting machines", and has more than 170 co-sponsors, but the audit required is too weak, it promotes electronic voting and centralized power, and the secret software might be permitted to continue in the central tabulators (the bill is not clear). To sign the HR 550 petition: http://www.rushholt.com/petition.html
At lot of discussion at DU of the loopholes/pitfalls in HR 550:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
(Note: Senate Bill-SB 330 and House-HR704 simply require a "voter verified paper audit trail" (VVPAT), which may be best for the moment.)


Also of interest:

Michael Collins (Autorank)'s searing election reform article for New Zealand's Scoop.com
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Bob Koehler (-- four recent election reform initiatives in Ohio, predicted to win by 60/40 votes, flipped over, on election day, into 60/40 LOSSES!--the biggest flipover we've seen yet; the election theft machines and their masters are now dictating election policy! Title: "Poll Shock" 11/24/05)
http://commonwonders.com/archives/col321.htm

Bob Koehler's latest: "Trust us: Take this box and stuff it" (3/16/06)
http://commonwonders.com/archives/col337.htm
More Koehler:
www.tmsfeatures.com/tmsfeatures/subcategory.jsp?file=20...

Amaryllis (Diebold, ES&S, Sequoia lavish lobbying of election officials - Beverly Hilton, Aug. '05)
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=vi...

HOWARD DEAN remarks on electronic voting machines 04/06
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

------------------------------------------------

Throw Diebold, ES&S and ALL election theft machines into 'Boston Harbor' NOW!

:think: :patriot: :woohoo: :patriot: :think:

-----------

"That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it." --Thomas Jefferson, The Declaration of Independence
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wiggs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-08-06 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #7
17. bravo
I don't understand why there hasn't been more organization for voting integrity across the board...from most dems, from think tanks, from reputable pugs, from ACLU, from unions, state legislatures, etc. Pretty fundamental break down in democracy. And even if you don't think 2004 was stolen, most would have to admit the potential is there for tampering.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-07-06 04:33 PM
Response to Original message
8. To Rageneau...
re post #6.We need to start threatening conservative churches...

"My state went for Bush..." --Rageneau

How do you know? Did you see the ballots? Did you see them counted? Does your voting system have "trade secret,' proprietary programming code, controlled by Bushite corporations? (Diebold, ES&S, Sequoia?). Was the vote count transparent and verifiable? If not, then no one can prove that your state "went for Bush."

"... I am convinced that was largely because there was intense politicking from the pulpits of conservative churches statewide. My neighbors -- poor working people who ought to vote democrat -- voted rethug instead because their pastors convinced them that the election was all about abortion and gay marriage."--Rageneau

There is no question that some of this occurred--church politicking--but where is the evidence that it was critical--that it made the difference? I'm afraid you're suffering from a Karl Rove/Dick Cheney meme, promulgated by the war profiteering corporate news monopolies. In fact, the evidence--the hard data--points the other way, that they tried it but it didn't work. For instance, the Democrats blew the Bushites away in new voter registration in 2004, nearly 60/40. Were all those people flocking to the Democratic Party to vote for Bush? Election data shows that the vast majority of independent voters voted for Kerry. The vast majority of new voters voted for Kerry. The vast majority of former Nader voters voted for Kerry. And, Gore/Bush 2000 voters being a wash (about 50/50), who else is there? After the election, someone asked Rove or Cheney (can't recall which) how they won, and they answered that it was their "invisible" voter registration campaign in the churches. But there is no evidence--zero, zilch--that it worked. The facts say the opposite.

Re: your anecdote (your neighbors)--did they vote for Bush before? If so, then they are part of the "wash" (the 50/50 split of Gore/Bush voters). Their pastor didn't CHANGE their vote. He just reinforced their prejudice. Kerry couldn't get to them--but he COULD and DID get to most of the new voters, independent voters and former Nader voters. A few Republican voters having their prejudices reinforced by their rightwing pastors simply could not make the difference that you are attributing to them.

The "gay marriage" and "abortion" memes--planting initiatives on the ballot, etc.--was also part of the newsstream "inevitability" narrative, in non-transparent conditions; that is, they provided a feasible-sounded "explanation" of a Bush/Cheney win, to be used after the election--when, in truth, Bush/Cheney had their buds at Diebold and ES&S "counting" all the votes with "trade secret," proprietary programming code, and virtually no audit/recount controls. Their fellow crooks in Congress--Tom Delay and Bob Ney--set the election system up that way, with their $4 billion HAVA boondoggle. All Rove had to do was provide the "inevitability" narrative.

"You can bet the farm that the RNC and Rove intend to do the same thing as the '06 election approaches."--Rageneau

Yeah, this time it's the brown-skinned immigrants. They're setting up it up already--the "inevitability" narrative. (Why did this suddenly--out of nowhere--become an issue?) We need to get more savvy about how they are manipulating the corporate newsstream, to hide the fact that they have gained control of the vote tabulation. And we need to concentrate on the actual mechanism of power: the vote tabulation.

"But I bet those churches would be less willing to violate the law if they were "threatened" with the certainty that, should democrats win one of the houses of congress, investigations into whether conservative churches have abused their tax-free status by politicking would begin immediately. //I think even churches where the holier-than-thou worship would start to obey the law if they were forced to." -- Rageneau

I certainly agree with you! But even the people in these kinds of church congregations are starting to figure out what a shoddy bill of goods they've been sold. Bush has a THIRTY-PERCENT approval rating! (You want to know the truth? I don't think he had much more than that in 2004--but that's another story.) That SEVENTY PERCENT disapproval has to include a whole lot of "born again" Christians, Republicans and former Bushites.

While I absolutely agree that church politicking needs to be stamped out in the strongest way possible, I think the church thing is something of a red herring--like all the other red herrings they've thrown in our path. It's not the churches that are "counting" the votes behind a veil of secrecy. For the most part, they just provide some foreground chatter, and some juicy, scary anecdotes that call up ghosts of the Inquisition and witchburnings and pogroms. There is in fact a direct connection between the secret vote tabulation and extremist 'christian' groups. One of the two main manufacturers of election theft machinery--ES&S--was initially funded by rightwing billionaire, Howard Ahmanson, who also gave one million dollars to the Chalcedon Foundation--an extremist 'christian' group that touts the death penalty for homosexuals (among other things). But I think--if we're going to bust some "non-profit" rightwing empires--we might want to start with Ahmanson, rather than church non-profits, which are often a mixed bag of people maybe with powermongering leaders or preachers. Study the power, follow the money. That's where to start.

But first we have to restore TRANSPARENT, VERIFIABLE elections.
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Clarkie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-08-06 01:29 AM
Response to Original message
10. You overestimate them. n/t
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jerry611 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-08-06 01:39 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Overestimate conservatives?
Isn't that what Democrats have been doing since 2000?

That's the problem. In spring 2004, all the polls showed Kerry well ahead of Bush...even through the summer. But after the conventions and after the debates, suddenly the election was neck and neck. The problem is people UNDERESTIMATE Bush and conservatives. Democrats get too overconfident and giddy. And the far-left starts pushing and pushing until it scares away the moderates.

Right now, just because Democrats are ahead in the polls means jack crap. We've won absolutely nothing yet.
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Raksha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-08-06 04:53 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. People tend to overestimate their effectiveness
and underestimate their duplicity. It should be the other way around!
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Clarkie1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-08-06 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #11
18. I think the OP overestimates them. n/t
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win_in_06 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-08-06 06:58 AM
Response to Original message
13. Visualize Success
We shouldn't snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again.
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Minnesota Libra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-08-06 07:15 AM
Response to Original message
14. If elections are stolen again in November and in 08 this country is......
....totally screwed. :cry: I don't know if this country could recover from that kind of disaster. :cry: So I choose to hold out hope :hi: that there are enough people with the smidgen of active gray matter it takes to figure that out. :applause:
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-08-06 07:20 AM
Response to Original message
15. We did really well in 05 (VA, NJ, CA) and we can do well in 06. nt
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AX10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-08-06 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Democrats have won a number of special elections...
in NJ and VA since then too.
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