We need 6 seats to take back the Senate. Who are they?

[CTyankee]

I'm woefully behind on my Senate races. Are we still winning in PA against Santorum? How about FL?

Where else do we have a good chance to pick up a seat?

[terrya]

1. Is there a realistic chance we could win in Tennessee?

I've read some articles saying that this could be doable.

Pennsylvania is a must win.

[Clark2008]

36. Tennessee here... it's doable!

Rep. Van Hilleary (R-TN) is ahead of Ford 43% to 37%, "just squeaking past the poll's margin of sampling error of 4.5%." The other two Republicans seeking the nomination, Bob Corker (R) and Rep. Ed Bryant (R-TN), lead 42% to 40%, which is essentially a statistical tie.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/01/30/tennessee_senate_race_very_close.html

[rememberearth]

42. but they'll try to link Ford to his relative who was involved in...

The TN Waltz sting operation.Its an uphill battle on this one.

[Clark2008]

51. They're trying, but it's not working

People on the east and in the middle of the state don't link the two. And, in Memphis, where it could matter, it doesn't because Memphis is a very blue city.

[rememberearth]

53. that's good news

whew.

[evlbstrd]

2. Missouri.

McCaskill v. Talent.

[0007]

39. What does it look like? I can't stand that asshole Talent.

[rg302200]

3. Brown over DeWine in Ohio might happen...

Hard to tell just yet, but DeWine is vulnerable...this could be a pick up!

[Greyhound]

24. I hope so,

otherwise I'll be forced to drag Rahm & Co. out of their offices and beat them.

[cally]

43. Schumer is responsible for that one

Rahm is responsible for house races. I know that you meant the Dem leaders and Rahm and Schumer but I'm seeing a difference in how both chose candidates. I think Rahm is doing a better job.

[OzarkDem]

45. It will happen

Brown is ahead, DeWine is saddled by his party's corruption and Bush's low approval ratings.

[KyuzoGator]

4. Nelson is WAY ahead in Florida. Martinez's seat isn't up. nt

[Jack Rabbit]

5. The Pennsylvania seat looks like ours to lose

Ohio looks iffy, but it can be done.
Tennessee is a possiblility (Frist is retiring).
Vermont, now held by Jeffords (I) appears to be going to Sanders (I), but he'll caucus with the Democrats.
Montana reports Burns is in trouble.
Rhode Island: Chaffe is facing a strong primary challenge, but if he can survive that will probably win in November.

Those are our best chances.

[annabanana]

9. Ohio's super-hinky machines have me spooked.

If they can flip that voters rights stuff completely over (from polls showing broad support) then I don't have great hopes for an honest count there...

[ArbustoBuster]

10. Santorum is going down.

Everyone I know hates him, including the Republicans. His reputation at this point is "crazy, stupid, out-of-state Washington insider."

[dajoki]

50. I live in PA...

and I'm cautiously optimistic. the one poll I saw recently scared me a little, it had Casey up by 6% only.

[napi21]

65. There's ONE thing we still don't know!

How many Pubs will be outed as linked to Abramoff's excapades before November?

We've all heard a few names thrown around, but nobody knows YET! There sue COULD be SEVERAL Senators named during Abramoff's cooperation talks who are silently shaking behind closed doors, but will be openly named in the next month or two.

The Senate just might be easier than we think.

In the House, Abranoff, DeLay links COULD be worse!

I'm fairly optomistic about a win in Nov. mainly because I can't remember the last DAY that we didn't hear of another link, another tie to corruption, of someone new!

[Cosmocat]

70. Yeah ...

It is the pennachio thing ... I get that people believe in the guy, but Casey is taking a hit generally by the vehement support for Pennachio by the hard core lefties in the primary ...

Gotta think big pictures ... I get that Penny is more liberal, and Casey is a bit of an empty suit ... But, Santorum CREAMS Penny in a general ...

1) Santorum is going to have a BIG time war chest ... He will be nearly double what Casey has ... He would have a 20-25 to 1 cash advantage over Penny ... We are talking 30+ million to a couple million ... He could run ads every half hour for months on TV that Penny is a child molesting alien and Penny would not be able to defend himself, much less go on the offensive against Santorum ...

2) While Penny is a genuine guy, and I like what he stands for ... The people in the middle will see him as a wingnut on the left, just as much as they see Santorum as a wingnut on the right ... Given the choice of a conservative wingnut who has tenure vs a liberal wingnut with no tenure, the middle will fall right ...

I am HOPING that once the primary settles down, that things will stretch back out ... Santorum is a slimy little puke, dangerous as heck ... But, he has a LOT going against him ... Let him beat himself in ways that he beats himself, and let Casey gear up ...

[KyuzoGator]

31. Polls still showing Tennessee as very red.

Frist's seat will be one of the most difficult to pick up.

[Clark2008]

37. Really, What poll are you looking at?

I'm looking at this one:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/01/30/tennessee_senate_race_very_close.html

[KyuzoGator]

41. Harold Ford is trailing several points behind "unnamed Republican"

Not a good sign.

[Clark2008]

72. The poll I linked to isn't there anymore.

There is no "unnamed" Republican in the poll I cited. It showed Ford in a dead heat with each of the Republican candidates running - with Hillaery beating him by the most (the others were beating him, but they were statistically washes since they were within the margin of error).

I realize it's an uphill battle for any Dem to get face time with our conservative media around here, but it's doable. We just have to GOTV.

[chaumont58]

6. Montana could be another win

It looks like Conrad Burns is stuck to tar baby Abramoff.

[terrya]

8. I read 29% approval ratings for Burns.

if that isn't a death knell, I don't know what is.

[valerief]

7. Pick them from America's Next Top Model contestants. They've

got to be better than the Rethugs in office now.

[Jack Rabbit]

11. How's Virginia looking? Does anybody know?

A while ago Allen looked like he might be in some trouble.

[magnolia]

28. I'm optimistic....

We have two dems running in the primary. I like Jim Webb and I honestly think he can beat Allen.

[AlecBGreen]

54. If Webb wins the primary

IF he gets money and support, and IF he runs a smart, hard campaign, I give him 50/50 odds...

I pray he wins ... I cannot believe my beautiful state is represented by a racist asshat like George Allen :puke:

[LibDemAlways]

60. The New Republic ran two stories within the

past week detailing Allen's racist past and love affair with the Confederacy. Even printed Allen's Palos Verdes, CA high school yearbook picture in which he's wearing a Confederate flag pin.(He didn't arrive in Virginia until two years later and had no ties to the South.) Probably more to come as well. Someone on the New Republic site posted a comment in reponse to the article asking if anyone had questioned Allen about why he named his son "Forrest." Seems that Confederate General Nathan Forrest was an early KKK Grand Wizard and responsible for atrocities against black Union troops. Now, this will boost his support among the sizable redneck population in VA, but may well hurt him among Independents and Moderates. Allen has never been afraid of waging a down and dirty campaign. I hope the Dems come out swinging.

[newswolf56]

12. Unfortunately Cantwell could lose Washington state by the combination...

of her anti-gun fanaticism and her anti-labor, anti-poor, anti-elderly-and-disabled votes: CAFTA, re-imposition of indentured servitude via bankruptcy reform, Medicare Prescription Drug Lord Benefit -- no matter she changed her votes on the latter two (voted against them after she voted for them) because the damage was already done. And according to the state labor council, NAFTA/CAFTA/GATT has cost Washington at least 120,000 jobs, more likely 160,000.

In spite of an anti-Bush sentiment 10 stories tall, out in the country I'm hearing again what I've heard before: "Might as well vote for the Republican; only difference is the Republicans will let us keep our guns" -- this in a state where (though it is strongly New-Deal-progressive on economic issues), at least 70 percent of the electorate strongly supports the right to keep and bear arms.

Point being that Bush-hatred does not automatically mean a Democratic shoe-in; with corporatist Cantwell in the race, we might well need SEVEN seats.

[paulk]

30. she's still got an eight point lead, and that from a Republican

pollster.

Though I'm sure if the left keeps attacking her they can manage to swing the race to the Republican candidate...

[newswolf56]

33. Sorry, but in any race between Cantwell and a GOPorker, we'll get...

a corporate Republican whomever we vote for. And I won't vote for ANYBODY as unabashedly anti-labor and hostile to low-income-people as Cantwell is -- because to vote for those policies is literally the same as voting Republican. I've never missed a congressional or presidential election in my life, but in this one -- specifically because I know Cantwell's record -- I may not have a choice: not unless another viable Democrat announces for the primary (which is precisely what I and a whole helluva lot of other folks are desperately hoping will happen).

As to Republican polls, they're mostly intended to frighten the base into ever more frantic Fundamentalist frenzies. The one Democratic poll I know about -- this I believe in January (though it may have been late last year) showed Cantwell with a less-than-three-point lead.

If she loses, don't fall for the GOPorker/DLC propaganda and blame the Left; blame Cantwell for being a DINO anti-gun fanatic in a New Deal/gunowner state.

[paulk]

52. it's never "literally the same as voting for a Republican"

This is the most bogus argument used by the left. On a national level you're voting for control of the Senate - for the Senate majority leader, for control of the Senate agenda. Would Harry Reid be the same as Bill Frist? That's ultimately what you're saying.

Cantwell's internal polling shows her with a steady 10 point lead. And that's down from the earlier polling. I have no idea where you got the "less than three point lead" poll. I've not seen anything remotely like that.

By all means, try and unseat her in the primary, but don't fall for the lefty/Green propaganda that there is no difference between Dem. and Rep.

[newswolf56]

56. Two points on Cantwell and a linked response on poll data:

(1)-Cantwell and her colleague Murray gave their prescription-drug-lord supporters a huge political payoff by voting for the forcible imposition of Medicare Part D, the concentration-of-wealth program I have aptly labeled the Medicare Prescription Drug Lord Benefit:

http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=108&session=1&vote=00262

This deliberately murderous legislation is not only killing AIDS patients and other such vulnerable people by denying them lifesaving drugs, it is also robbing seniors like myself who are relatively healthy: a mandatory-enrollment program enforced by draconian penalties, it MORE THAN TRIPLES my annual prescription drug expenses -- all to put more money in the pocket of the prescription drug lords. And while it is true Cantwell and Murray later voted against the measure, this was nothing more than the typically dishonest political sleight-of-hand that has become the identifying characteristic of (corporate-dominated) U.S. politics in general. The damage was done by the initial pay-off-the-prescription-drug-lords vote -- the vote linked above -- and no amount of dissembling by either Cantwell or Murray can change that fact. Not that I am likely to forget: I remember it every month when I write the check for the premium -- this as my blood-pressure boils over with anger and frustration.

(2)-Cantwell and her colleague Murray paid off the banking industry by voting for "bankruptcy reform," not only the literal re-imposition of indentured servitude, but blanket permission to the credit-card loan-sharks to double our payments and thereby force us into default. Here is the link:

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines01/0316-03.htm

Again, their debts paid to the fat-cat bankers, Cantwell and Murray later (meaninglessly) reversed their votes -- more of the corrupt American political sleight-of-hand that is so carefully protected by the corporate media. Again, I remember Cantwell and Murray every time I write a check for a forcibly doubled credit-card payment -- and again my blood pressure boils over, this time not just with anger and frustration, but also with the low-income person's abject fear of being forced into permanent ruination.

Which brings me to the vital question: how could a Republican possibly be any worse?

Murray, banking on the innate ignorance of the electorate (she should know; she was a public school teacher before she turned politician), is desperately trying to re-invent herself as a champion of the elderly. Rage over the Medicare Prescription Drug Lord Benefit is palpable; whether a majority of the elderly are being fooled by Murray's I-was-against-it-after-I-was-for-it act remains to be seen.

What I hear most of all, especially from blue-collar and rural Washingtonians, is this: "None of the politicians represent the little guy; the politicians are all for Big Business and to hell with anybody who's not rich. But at least the Republicans will let us keep our guns."

As to polls, I Googled for the reference I cited but couldn't find it. I remember it was a local-newspaper analysis piece that ran -- as I said -- some time ago. It was probably just after McGavick announced for the race, but before it had soaked into the electorate that he is a representative of the for-profit insurance industry, which is probably the most thoroughly-despised Big Business operation in the state. Hatred of the insurance industry is surely therefore fueling Cantwell's lead, but even with that advantage, the picture is not nearly as clear-cut as it might seem from the relative distance of Colorado. Here are four poll-links that, taken together and viewed contemplatively, reflect more of the nuances of the situation and are thus at least somewhat enlightening:

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/washington_poll_0520.htm

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/March%202006/Washington%20Senate%20March.htm

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/washington_poll_033106.htm

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Washington%20Senate%20April.htm

These are arranged chronologically with the most recent results last. Don't be dismayed by the apparent paradoxes in the two voter-attitude polls: this is a state that supports the right to keep and bear arms as much as it supports gay rights or environmental protection. The electorate is solidly New Deal on socioeconomic and labor issues (so much so that during the 1950s the Rabid Right referred to it as "the Soviet of Washington"). The same voters are radically secular-libertarian on cultural matters: at only 28 percent regular church attendance, Washington has the lowest quotient of Christian orthodoxy in the U.S.: in the cities (and even in many deeply rural areas), an atmosphere of religious tolerance that exists nowhere else in the nation -- the reason the state has become an Avalon -- a new Samothrace -- of goddess-centered spirituality.

[radio4progressives]

58. excellent post newswolf, and excellent source citations.. (eom)

:applause: :hi:

[radio4progressives]

57. just a tad bit more intellectual honesty is important

first crack at this would be to drop the red baiting ("lefty/Green") bullshit - I'm not voting for Feinstein in California, whether or not she "wins" the primary.. she's not getting my vote, period end of story.

If you want to pursuade the poor and the working class of your arguments, you will avoid at all cost any and all snide red baiting remarks.. if you want our votes, you better pay a little respect and you had better start learning how now.

[paulk]

61. are you a Communist? That's what "red baiting" commonly

refers to.

Or are you saying that there's no difference between being Green and being a Communist? Don't listen, that progressives and communists are both the same is all DLC propaganda! Someone as intellectually honest as yourself would surely reject such a notion...

You know, since you've already said that you're not voting for the Democratic Senatorial candidate in your state, why would I need to persuade you of anything?

Glad to see that you speak for the poor and working class, and that they all follow your advice in the voting booth. It must be a good feeling to represent those folks.

[radio4progressives]

63. Dianne I'm a Happy War Profiteer Feinstein is a Democrat?

Just because a candidate has a big D following their name doesn't make them so.

[radio4progressives]

64. "If you think I will cooperate with you in any way, you are insane"

"Are you now or were you ever a member of the Communist Party?"

In the words of a very dear friend to the HUAC Committee in 1960 and who was openly a member of the Communist Party in the United States:


Honorable beaters of children, sadists, uniformed and in plain clothes, distinguished Dixiecrat wearing the clothing of a gentleman, eminent Republican who opposes an accommodation with the one country with which we must live at peace in order for us and all our children to survive.


My boy of fifteen left this room a few minutes ago in sound health and not jailed, solely because I asked him to be in here to learn something about the procedures of the United States government and one of its committees. Had he been outside where a son of a friend of mine had his head split by these goons operating under your orders, my boy today might have paid the penalty of permanent injury or a police record for desiring to come here and hear how this committee operates.

If you think that I am going to cooperate with this collection of Judases, of men who sit there in violation of the United States Constitution, if you think I will cooperate with you in any way, you are insane! This body is improperly constituted. It is a kangaroo court. It does not have my respect, it has my utmost contempt.

(bold text emphasis mine)

Learn what a real American Communist thinks, believes and does..

BillMandel.net

[skipos]

13. Google the names in a race and, the word "polls" and hit the "news" button

any you may get some answers.

When I google news "Santorum" "Casey" and "poll" I get a few articles about the incumbent "only" trailing Casey by 6%, and some mentions of polls with Santorum down by double digits.

[Zynx]

14. PA, MT, MO, RI, OH, and TN in that order.

[RUMPLEMINTZ]

15. I agree with those but

lets not forget to support those Democrat incumbants who are in some tough races too. We need to support Cardin in Maryland, One of the two ladies in Minnesota and Cantwell in Washington. It won't mean squat to pick up all those if we lose any of these.

[skipos]

17. Menendez has had some low polls in NJ too.nt

[skipos]

19. duh dupe.

[Zynx]

18. I think Cardin is beginning to pull away with it.

Minnesota troubles me. Washington not so much. I'm very concerned about New Jersey.

[skipos]

21. And what is f**ked up is that those are BLUE states that HATE Bush.

Just because most of America thinks Bush blows, it doesn't mean dems are going to have a cakewalk in 06.

[saltpoint]

16. Ford in Tennessee is proving a bit more competent than some thought

early on.

DeWine is beatable in Ohio (Brown versus DeWine).

Santorum loses in Pennsylvania.

Chafee loses narrowly in RI.

Burns goes down in flames in Montana.

Claire McCaskill outlanks Talent in the Show Me State.

Upset bonus special: Webb over Cement-Head Allen in Virginia.

Tennessee, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Missouri, and just maybe Virginia.

[skipos]

20. Have you seen any polls with Ford winning? I haven't.

I am not saying they don't exist, or that polls are the end all be all. Do you have any links?

[saltpoint]

22. skipos, you're right -- no poll so far shows him in the lead that I know

of, but all of them show him within striking distance.

The Democrats aren't dead in Tennessee. In Georgia they are in worse shape, but there's signs of life in Tennessee.

I think it will be a steep climb for Ford, but it's within manageable distance.

[newswolf56]

25. Ford is an anti-gunner. Anti-gunners can't win in Tennessee.

(Note how President-in-exile Gore lost his own state in the 2000 election. And compared to Gore, who merely wants to prohibit civilian ownership of handguns and semiautomatic long arms, Ford is an anti-gun fanatic: opposed to ALL civilian ownership of firearms.)

[saltpoint]

26. Agree that his climb will be uphill.

[Greyhound]

23. Pederson can beat Kyle in AZ.

It's his to win if he just has the stones to speak up...

We'll see.

[saltpoint]

27. That would a very sweet headline to read indeed. I hope so, greyhound.

[Supersedeas]

44. that would be one that I celebrate as much as two seats

[CPMaz]

67. He could do it,

but he has to start really campaigning. The TV ads are a good start, but that is all.

[Stinky The Clown]

29. Adding to the above ..... I see a chance in Virginia

Two Dem governors in a row. Rumors that Allen wants to move to a white house in downtown Washington may allow voters to not support him as strongly. And then there's Jim Webb. I know he's not the darling of DU, but I think he'll go over pretty well in the pro-military bastions of Virginia (which is pretty extensive), plus pull support from NoVa, where the Dems are strongest.

Something else about Virginia. It was, in 64, the first of the 'solid south' Democratic states to flip to republican. Perhaps it can be the state that starts the reverse trend.

[CTyankee]

32. Boy, things must really have changed since I lived in NoVa

from 1976 to 1985 (when a merciful god allowed me to move to CT). I lived in Annandale and there were lots of military families (in my neighborhood they were pretty high ranking: Navy captains, Army colonels). I didn't like the frosts in April, but the CT (esp. New Haven)political atmosphere was great.

What's going on the NoVa has changed? Or maybe I just lived in the wrong suburb of D.C.?

[NJ Democrats]

34. PA

RI, TN, AZ, NV, MO, MT, Oh are all states we could win.

[TheVirginian]

38. Not a chance of winning Nevada.

Arizona isn't looking too good either. I haven't seen a poll that has Pederson within 15 points of Kyl.

[snowbear]

40. There's ALWAYS a chance Virginian..

Even if you read Republican leaning polls telling you otherwise!

Rethugs across America could wake up on November 3rd, 2006 and wonder what the hell hit 'em.

At the rate things are going, by November even the wackiest wacko Rethugs will probably be jumping ship.

Have some FAITH!

[TheVirginian]

48. It appears you have enough blind faith for the both of us.

So I'll leave that to you.

We'll win PA. We have a strong chance in MO, MT, RI, and OH. We have an outside chance in TN, and a slim-to-none chance in AZ and VA.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have a strong chance in NJ, and an outside chance in MN and WA.

[NJ Democrats]

55. I don't think we will win NV

either. I thought Goodman could have won though.

[saltpoint]

35. If Ned Lamont can win the primary against Lieberman, we have a

good chance of an ideological pick-up in Connecticut. It won't change the percentages but it will matter a lot when it comes to floor votes.

[rhett o rick]

46. What is best site to keep track of the House and Senate races?

I have tried "electionprojection.com"

[TheVirginian]

49. Depends on what you're looking for...

The absolute best place is nationaljournal.com, but its information requires a subscription that costs $1,700 a year. Outside of that, there are a couple of blogs that chronicle a good amount of information. A really good place to start, as always, is politics1.com. Also, believe it or not, Wikipedia will have a wealth of information on these races.

[yourout]

47. Self Delete

[dsc]

59. Here are several we could win

Three we should win

Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Montana in all of these states we are ahead and the incumbent is below fifty.

A few we have a decent shot at

Ohio, Arizona, Tennesee, and Missouri in three of these incumbents are in trouble to some extent. In the fourth there is a retirement. An anti Bush landslide could give us all four of these.

Our only problem races are in Minnesota and Maryland. Both feature retirements but are Democratic states so barring a huge problem we should keep those.

I honestly believe we have a better shot at winning the Senate than the House.

[WI_DEM]

62. to happen we need to carry all of our races, win our open seats

and pick up GOP incumbent and open seats in Rhode Island, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, and possibly Virginia, Arizona and Nevada while long shots are dark horses.

[alfredo]

66. What we haven't taken into account is the number of Rep

Senators who decide they don't want to be in the minority or think they'd rather retire than lose. Then there will be indictments. No telling how many will be coming down.


I wonder how many will decide that they need to spend more time with their families.

[enough already]

68. Latest PA polls show Santorum closing fast

Not a surprise as our party, in it's infinite wisdom, is pushing a guy more anti-choice than Santorum. Casey may yet win, but it didn't have to be this hard.

[PRETZEL]

69. You're right, this shouldn't be hard

but Casey hasn't seemed to have started campaigning yet, at least where I'm at (Philly region). Once that's started, this should change.

Santorum needs the eastern part of the state in the worst way. I seriously doubt he'll get it.

[Cosmocat]

71. Yeah ...

I agree that Casey seems to be keeping his powder dry at this point ...

Also, as noted, the Pennachio thing ... I get that people believe in the guy, but Casey is taking a hit generally by the vehement support for Pennachio by the hard core lefties in the primary ...

Gotta think big pictures ... I get that Penny is more liberal, and Casey is a bit of an empty suit ... But, Santorum CREAMS Penny in a general ...

1) Santorum is going to have a BIG time war chest ... He will be nearly double what Casey has ... He would have a 20-25 to 1 cash advantage over Penny ... We are talking 30+ million to a couple million ... He could run ads every half hour for months on TV that Penny is a child molesting alien and Penny would not be able to defend himself, much less go on the offensive against Santorum ...

2) While Penny is a genuine guy, and I like what he stands for ... The people in the middle will see him as a wingnut on the left, just as much as they see Santorum as a wingnut on the right ... Given the choice of a conservative wingnut who has tenure vs a liberal wingnut with no tenure, the middle will fall right ...

I am HOPING that once the primary settles down, that things will stretch back out ... Santorum is a slimy little puke, dangerous as heck ... But, he has a LOT going against him ... Let him beat himself in ways that he beats himself, and let Casey gear up ...