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Edited on Sat Apr-15-06 07:13 AM by teryang
...the problem is two fold, neo-cons don't understand defense economics which requires that a modern empire have a successul industrial base. Secondly, they follow an antiquated and inapplicable Roman model of success as elaborated upon by Machiavelli and Strauss, that as long as troops are fighting on the periphery of empire, you have a strong emperor and growing power or at least consolidating power. In the defective roman model, will and technology are all that matter.
It is inevitable based upon defense economics that we will ultimately withdraw in defeat from Iraq. The squandering of the national treasury to benefit the relatively few shareholders in the defense contractor and energy sectors cannot last. Ironically, the profligate waste of resources upon unproductive defense enterprises damages our military posture all the more by further neglect of our manufacturing base. Defense is not a growth industry. Even much of their manufacturing infrastructure lies outside in the US, accelerating our economic decline. While defense sector industry can only prosper temporarily off of debt funded government handouts, their down cycle of withdrawal and retrenchment are inevitable just as the British withdrawal from India was inevitable.
Even during the doomed Vietnam conflict we were on a much stronger economic footing than we are now. The negative leverage of fighting in a conflict we fundamentally didn't understand, a long way from home with extended lines of logistical effort (acting as negative cost multiplier), with demographic and geographic disadvantage in the battle area, allowed a purported technologically inferior enemy gave us a sound thrashing.
Now we are weaker and our opponent is weaker still in material terms. However, the opponents have the home advantage, they have the cultural (intelligence) advantage, they have the moral advantage (as we are the aggressor), they have the shorter lines of communication and logistics, they have powerful allies and neighbors willing to assist them drive us out, they have the numerical and demographic advantage in young men of fighting age, they have access to virtually unlimited supplies of weapons (from China and Russia).
While their economy is already ruined and they have suffered physical and personal devastation, they are motivated and have nowhere to go but up. Our economic and political devastation is on the way if we continue as we have been, so we still have much to lose, even though we have lost tremendous resources already. It is a cultural and psychological calculus but at bottom, economic. Those politicians who speak of the new technology changing everything about warfare or giving us some unbeatable advantage, are repeating the same blunder heard during Vietnam and Korea. Be assured, we are losing and the outcome is inevitable and predictable as the planetary movements. It's cost benefit analysis, Defense Economics 101.
For years the conservatives crowed "looked what we did to the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan, we gave them their Vietnam." For years the rest of the world will crow, "looked what we did to the former United States in Iraq."
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