Dean's brilliant new strategy: skip thirteen primaries and caucuses

[jsw_81]

ALBUQUERQUE, Jan. 30 — Aides to Howard Dean's Democratic presidential campaign unveiled a new strategy on Friday that looks beyond the seven states choosing delegates on Tuesday to the Wisconsin primary on Feb. 17.

"Our goal for the next two and a half weeks is simple: become the last-standing alternative to John Kerry after the Wisconsin primary on Feb. 17," said Roy Neel, the new chief executive of the Dean campaign. "We may not win any Feb. 3 state, but even third-place finishes will allow us to move forward, continue to amass delegates in Virginia and Tennessee on Feb. 10, and then strongly challenge Kerry in Wisconsin."

The leap-frog strategy is highly unusual because it presumes that Dr. Dean will not be able to win any of the 13 states that vote before Wisconsin and that he will have enough money to last that long without a victory.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/31/politics/campaign/31GORE.html

[La_Serpiente]

1. I have a feeling his campaign will come out swinging

after next week's primaries. He is going to be hitting some hard punches, and they will not be pretty.

[joshcryer]

2. He clearly has the campaign revenue...

...scary, huh? :)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

54. Clear to everyone who hasn't read the news lately I guess.

Joe Trippi's got the money in his bank account, is that what you mean?

[robcon]

3. I think this is making lemonade when life has given Dean lemons

Dean can't afford to compete for the next few weeks, since Trippi apparently spent almost all the money Dean had.

Dean's announcement soumds a lot like sour grapes: he can't win any primaries, so he tries to say the primaries are unimportant. I think Dean may be so far behind by Feb. 17, that Kerry will be the presumptive nominee.

[joshcryer]

4. Ever since Iowa it's been about delegates.

Don't think there are any sour grapes here at all. They just have to work harder than they were before.

[ibegurpard]

6. Well, we've got at least 1.4 million

[izzie]

8. I think Dean is done and I am sorry as he called it like it is.

Hard to give up when you worked so hard. Also hard to fight the big guys in either party. I do think the smoke filled back room, where the money is, still controls most of this. If Kerry gets it and gets in his first term will be running for the second and I just hate that. They all do it.I think this country will not get right until the people get out and vote. From what your read,all Republicans vote and about half the Democrats vote, which leaves about 40 percent of the pop, not voting.But when asked the people who do not vote say, they are all crooks or who cares.

[PassingFair]

62. Let me see if my math is right...

All republicans vote = 100%
1/2 dems vote = 50%

The other 50% are DISGUSTED WITH POLITICS AS USUAL

Howard Dean can get these people off of their couches. Kerry will get NO independents.

[Cheswick2.0]

29. I don't agree, however it you are right

then that is very sad. Kerry is part of the problem not part of the solution. His ability to follow far excides his ability to lead. This is illustrated by this one point : If you like anything Kerry has said in the last month, you can be sure Dean said it 6 months or more ago.

[ibegurpard]

5. It certainly is unusual

And we'll keep funding him as long as he wants to keep it up.

[Lexingtonian]

7. Let's hope more candidates do this

Pile 'em all into Wisconsin!

Actually, I wonder about the optimism that has Neel claim they're going to win delegates in Virginia and Tennessee. I doubt Gore has any favors left to call in.

Ain't that the supreme irony: the anti-DLC anti-establishment Dean campaign is now relying on Al Gore to pull them through to somewhere, perhaps to a respectable showing at the Convention. Gore in turn is using the Dean campaign as a surrogate to recover standing in the Party lost to Clinton.

[WI_DEM]

9. wrong

he is strongly contesting Michigan, Washington State, and Maine caucuses next weekend. It is only the 2/3 states he is not investing in media, but he is still campaigining in SC, Mo, Ariz, and NM and calling radio stations for interviews in each state and working with the grass roots too gotv in each. When he does surprisingly well in several of these 2/3 states without investing in the media like the other candidates are and gets delegates that will be a boost going into the contests next weekend.

[Lexingtonian]

11. good luck

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&e=2&u=/ap/20040131/ap_on_el_pr/democrats

In Washington, the Communications Workers of America, with 700,000 members, endorsed Kerry and Michigan's largest teachers union, the 157,000-member Michigan Education Association, gave its support. A third union, the Sheet Metal Workers International Association, plans to announce its backing next week.

Not exactly good news out of Michigan. I'd guess Maine will be much the same story as New Hampshire, so that leaves Washington State as a good shot. On Feb 3 "surprisingly well" could mean breaking into double digits at all.

This is by far the most interesting part, though-

Bush announced plans to travel to South Carolina two days after the primary, very similar to a trip he took to New Hampshire to counter the pounding he is taking from the Democratic field.

Grassroots Republican morale must be pretty low.

[virtualobserver]

13. The funny thing is, I don't think that ads matter much anymore

I think that he might do better without them.

[HereSince1628]

18. Well I hope your right

but I am doubtful.

The ads are more than information, they are evidence of presence and reinforce the base of support.

With more ads on at more times there is the impression of not only taking a state seriously, but also of campaign stength. For every voter committed to the candidate the ads are a reinforcement of having made a right choice and an encouragement to go out and vote.

As a Dean supporter I am disappointed...

[Bombtrack]

10. Maybe he's hoping for Bush-republicans to save him

Wisconsin is an open primary, meaning all the republicans in the state can vote in our primary if they decide to.

But that unlikely I guess.

Kerry and Edwards have both gotten recent labor endorsments in Wisonsin.

I still think everyone is ignoring Clark and he can pull this out.

He still has more grassroots support than Kerry or Edwards

[Skip Intro]

12. That darn Dean and his supporters -

It really bothers some that we don't just quit, doesn't it?

Icing.

Guess the coronation will have to be put on hold.

:D

[jsw_81]

15. No

Dean is free to continue all the way to the convention with Kucinich, Sharpton and the other "candidates" who have zero chance. And you're perfectly free to "go to the bat" and fund his Stassenesque crusade if you so desire.

But don't you think that it's kind of odd that Dean would decide to basically skip a dozen or so primaries and caucuses at a crucial time? Or do you applaud the Dean campaign for such a brilliant strategy?

[RetroLounge]

17. We're glad you are so concerned with the Dean campaign

no really, we are...

[MAlibdem]

50. Don't you think it odd

To call yourself a "Howard Dean Democrat"? It's like a Goldwater Republican...and it's bad for the party. Cults of personality are bad, not being about to determine if someone is a celebrity or politician is bad. I'm a democrat because of the way I think, not because of a person I unthinkingly adore.

[Darth_Kitten]

35. Zero Chance?

I find it odd that Kerry is getting the boost from the media that he is. Nothing against Kerry, but his only benefit is that he's riding the wave that Dean created.

I'm always behind the underdog, especially one that is getting unfairly treated by a biased media and fickle voters.

[Name removed]

38. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[jsw_81]

43. Aristocratic comments?

What about Dean's comment about the servants in his New York City apartment? What about his $1 million "gift" from mom and dad?

[TLM]

45. Nice spin... Dean isn't SKIPPING anything.

They are simply working on a 50 state strategy that would not place as much focus on the next round of primaries as the candidate who wants to be declared the winner before 90% of the country gets to vote on who the nominee should be.

I seriously doubt Kerry can stand a primary that goes all the way to the convention.... and obviously neither do his supporters.

[THUNDER HANDS]

14. "We're NOT Going To South Carolina, nor Okalhoma, nor Arizona..."

We're gonna skip a bunch of states and hope the GOP takes down Kerry for us....YEEEAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH.

[Zech Marquis]

16. what did that general in Vietnam say?

"we destroyed this village in order to save it..." :eyes: I won't even try to explain the situation to the Dean supporters here, they'll have to learn the truth by themselves.

[joshcryer]

20. But they did go to SC, OK, and AZ.

Maybe you weren't actually paying attention.

[Cheswick2.0]

31. since Kerry is such a copycat

I wouldn't be surprised if he take this strategy too.
:D

[HazMat]

46. lol

[Feanorcurufinwe]

57. You nailed it!! lol

[slinkerwink]

19. I'm thinking you're worried about a Dean challenge in MI.......

Thanks for showing your concern.

[liberalmike27]

21. My Email to My Meetup that I coordinate

Hey gang,

The initial strategy was to win Iowa, and then New Hampshire, which usually brings more money and momentum, but the media killed both of those, by playing up things that were relatively insignificant, shades of Gore's sigh (so significant whether a president sighs, or how he dresses) and earth-tone looks. The campaign had a shakeup, and they hired some guy named Neal, which is of course being overplayed tremendously as a negative again in the media (Washington insider, etc.). Joe Trippi was encouraged to stay on, perhaps in managing the Internet role, but he declined felling he didn't want to accept a subservient role. Apparently they have about 4 million or so, by best estimates, though I've not heard exactly how much.

I can feel the despair in some of your emails, and with the media's portrayal of things, I can understand. Remember why you entered the campaign, and the feeling you got from Dean in the first place. Has that changed? Most of you still say you love Governor Dean, and his straight-talking, honest style. I've always preferred that myself, rather than people who just tell me what I want to hear. Some things to remember, and be encouraged about.

„h Since Dean opted out of campaign restrictions, by our vote, other candidates will run short of money way before the primaries are done. This is a big advantage.
„h Only 2 of 50 primaries have transpired, and they were very small states, with few delegates.
„h Even so, Dean is still ahead in the race with the delegate count thus-far. You'll notice the media hasn't pointed that out, preferring to portray Kerry as a 2-0 winner, and pronounce Dean DOA, and encourage him to leave the race. Hey, didn't we destroy you already Dean? Get lost!! Get a clue media, Dean is ahead.
„h I've said this all along, and they reinforced the though yesterday, we are his main weapon. The media BS isn't just trying to steer Democratic votes away from Dean, to Washington insider Kerry, who's been receiving corporate contributions for decades now, but it is trying to break your spirit, and make us quit on Dean. They know we do have the power, and just like they pounded Dean, they are beating on us, hoping we'll start doubting, and whining, and going to other candidates. Right now, we are so in this race, and we need to be strong, and instead of whining, write letters, and use every resource we can to keep Dean in the race. We can be like steel and weather the storm, or have our spines snapped like twigs with the weight of their rhetoric, following their script and giving up on Dean. Don't be led around by the nose by a media that only has corporate interests at heart.
„h Clinton lost ten primaries before he went on to win, and lost both Iowa and New Hampshire.

The general strategy: While we haven't given up on the states in February 3rd, and we'll probably win some delegates, the general strategy now is to shoot for the four states following, Wisconsin, Maine, Michigan, and Washington, all delegate-rich states. This wasn't the original strategy, changing it was necessary, as the results coming out of the two early states were different than expected. We are writing to Virginia, and Wisconsin this meet up, on February 4th and we've switched to 5.5" by 8.5" post cards. Be concise if you prepare a letter to bring, so you can squeeze it on the card. Mainly, remember our new strategy. While I expect we'll get a few delegates in the February 3rd contests, don't be discouraged and not show up if we don't win any of them. Remember our strategy, to go for the four large states listed above, later in February, where Dean is already more popular. Plenty of things can happen, Kerry is getting a lot of heat for his Vietnam War years, about throwing away his medals (some say he threw away someone else's medals, he says it was his ribbons) , and about not really putting too much legislation forward in his years in the Senate. Truth is, Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards, even Lieberman could still win. So many things can change the outcome, when and where folks drop out, and where their votes go, different people winning primaries, thus splitting the delegates, and a potential gaffe by any one of them. Do what you can. Instead of griping, write letters, write a letter to the editor of newspapers, post on blogs and message boards, pass out literature, register people to vote. I've been doing my part, and while I realize some might not have the time, money, or inclination, I couldn't really afford to buy 115 stamps, but I did. He lives or dies by our hand, and griping and whining won't get anyone elected, no one said it was going to be easy. But if you must, and just feel like venting, go ahead, it's been tough emotionally. Remember it's a long race, there are front-runners, pacers, and closers, Dean is hanging in there pacing the race now, and he's still in the thick of things. Work hard, and remember what you got into this thing for, for me, it was a feeling.

One note about me: In case you've not figured this out, I'm likely one of the most liberal ones in this group, and rather than shunning it, I realize it is a great thing, and wear the label proudly. So if my opinions rankle you at times, that is likely why. I didn't really want to lead this thing, but I'm doing my best for a guy I believe might be our best and only chance to stop the erosion of our democracy. If someone calls me a liberal, I don't shrink away, I say "Thank you!" So realize that others in the group aren't quite as radically-leftist as me, but I've had a lot of time to watch things, realizing long ago that the whole "liberal media" thing was a conservative ruse, as well as the demonization of the poor, blacks, and the word liberal. A lot of money has been spent to achieve these purposes, and the ranks of the mindless myrmidons sycophants who follow the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Bill O'Reilly are strong and growing, often buying into a philosophy that has over-time lowered their incomes, and sent their jobs out-of-country. Many are waking up to this, I hope some of you have, in light of what we've seen them do to Dean. Just hang in there, and let's try to win this thing, there are 48 more States remaining. If Dean can talk himself hoarse, and keep plodding through the motions, preaching his philosophy to the millions of us who believe in him and show up at his campaign stops, then we can certainly write letters, and keep the faith.

Thanks for all your efforts, and faith in Dean, and his campaign. Sorry it was so long, but I had a lot to convey.

[ibegurpard]

22. Outstanding.

Mind if I pass that along to some folks?

[Skip Intro]

23. wow - awesome

:thumbsup:

[frustrated_lefty]

51. Good job!

Keep the faith!

[CabalBuster]

24. Kerry will lose the GE because he's too full of dirty tricks and his

supporters seem to be following his lead. I Kerry is nominated people won't go out to vote for him. He's boring, too much of an insider--status quo and in bed with special interest; on top of that a bonesman. I won't vote for him and I know many people who will rather stay home that to give their vote to such a fraud.

[fujiyama]

64. I hope...

whoever the nominee is, will use dirty tricks in the GE. There is no playing nice with this administration.

Bush's first ad a few months ago was of him trying to claim that democrats don't want to fight terrorism.

Dems have to fight back hard -- and dirty if needed!

[WilliamPitt]

25. Can the campaign last w/o any results for over two weeks?

Two weeks is forever. Man, I thought Kerry rolled the dice by putting everything into Iowa and New Hampshire. THIS, however, is a bold move.

[joshcryer]

26. History shall tell. :)

It will make things quite interesting if it pans out at least partially. Dean has the money. He made another 40k last night. They average thousands of dollars an hour in donations.

No one can say that this campaign doesn't have balls though...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

32. W/o any results?

Delegate count:

Howard Dean: 113
Sen. John F. Kerry: 94
Sen. John Edwards: 36
Wesley Clark: 30
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman: 25
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt: 7
Al Sharpton: 4
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich: 2
Other: 1
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/delegateCount.html

[WilliamPitt]

40. By results I meant victories

[Cheswick2.0]

34. can a campaign last with 2 % of the polls for the last year?

Can a campaign last when the only original ideas it has are originally someone elses?

[WilliamPitt]

41. Yes to both, apparently

[mikehiggins]

53. Actually Mr. Pitt I think they can

This is where determination and commitment to a candidate (and a message) comes into play.

In a traditional campaign, run by experts and financed by big time donors, the regular candidates would be seriously considering when to drop out, rather than if.

In 2004, however, because of what Dean and, to a certain degree, Clark have done, two campaigns exist that are largely independent of the regular party structure and that are, to a degree, surrogates for other powerful forces in the party.

Thus, the Kerry "machine" is not facing John McCain or Pat Buchanan but one group based on grass rootssupport with the tacit support of Al Gore and his cohorts, and a second similarly grassroots groups that may or may not have the tacit support of the Clintons. Clark's campaign, in fact, has the additional novelty of coming into existence before it had a candidate to support.

So another issue is being played out here, besides just the decision of who will or will not be the nominee. Control of the party and the future direction it takes is also at stake, and that is why I doubt either Dean or Clark will withdraw until Gore or Clinton advise them to. Since this whole adventure is really cost-free to both, they will be in no hurry to do anything like that. Thus, there are no august senior leaders urging anyone to drop out and step aside for the good of the party.

I'm betting that this goes to the convention and if it does, I think Dean or Clark will end up the nominee after a short, sharp and vicious convention vote. What happens after that is anyone's guess but the way things are going, I think the general voting population will rally around anyone nominated to oppose Bush and I give that person good odds of prevailing in November.

Poor Senator Edwards, caught in the middle of all this, will be out of a job once his Senate seat expires.

You know, looking at what I just wrote, I suddenly feel very much more optimistic than I have all day.

We're going to win in November and my guy has as good a shot as anyone to be the nominee.

Cool.

[fujiyama]

63. I think Kerry...

had actually given up on New Hampshire at one point. This was when he was behind Dean by some 20+ points in New Hampshire. I think he decided to go and give it his all in Iowa instead.

It paid off nicely.

That momentum helped carry him through and gave many that had written him off a reason to go ahead and vote for him in NH. After all, he was the early favorite there as well (by early I mean about a year ago).

Dean on the other hand, did put all of his eggs in both those states. I think by virtue of being so far ahead, his campaign became cocky and spent a bit recklessly.

[mzmolly]

27. It won't be the first time the Dean campaign has made history.

Watch and see! Dean in 2004!!!

[cryofan]

28. This could work, and here is why....

By pulling completely out of the race in the feb 2 states, a lot of the votes that would go to Dean in those states, would instead go to Edwards or Clark, thus giving Edwards and CLark a better chance to win one or more of those states. And the more of the Feb 2 states Kerry loses, the more his momentum is dampened. Thus, when the later states come up, Kerry is not such a dominant force, and it will be more of a three way race between Kerry, Clark and Edwards. And those three will have spent a lot of their money in the Feb 2 states, making it easier for Dean to fight. If Dean had fought in the Feb 2 states, Kerry might win all of them because the anti Kerry vote is split.

Just a theory....

[Renew Deal]

30. I hope he doesn't win any delegates in those 13.

I don't know how he thinks it will be acceptable to idnore 1/6th of the country. It's time to lock the doors for Dean. If Kerry wins 9/13, no one else stand a chance. People won't even take Dean seriously anymore. I think it's over for Howard.

[PassingFair]

44. You can try to lock the door

The people have the key.

[TLM]

47. Lock the door.... very telling.

Kerry and his supporters want to shut out Dean and the grassroots and be declared the winner before more than half the country even gets to vote in their primaries.


This from the candidate who proclaimed we don't need the south.

And one point... Dean is not ignoring any states. In fact it is exactly the opposite, Dean is focusing on a 50 state strategy all the way to the convention.

Kerry and his people are scared to death of that prospect.


As they should be.

What happens when the Edwards folks and the Clark folks are pissed off about Kerry's dirty tricks, robo calls and BS directions to polling paces, knocking their guys out of the race? Do you think that they'll vote for Kerry?

Kerry's only hope is to be declared the winner now, before 80% of the country gets to vote.

Why don't Kerry folks want people to be allowed to vote?

[HazMat]

52. Dean is an enemy to be dealt with

no different from the Republicans.

Dean is a trouble maker who only cares about himself and his "cause", no different to a cult leader, IMO.

Dean has no chance, and I'm pretty sure he plans to make trouble at the convention a la 1968. The man and his supporters will not accept defeat, even if Kerry or anyone else has the required number of delegates. They will simply blame the media, even though it was the people of Iowa and NH who went *against* the media by choosing Kerry.

[FubarFly]

59. The thing is,

Dean is not your enemy, unless having an actual democracy run by an active and concerned citizenry is your enemy. Dean is in favor of letting every vote count. The Party hierachy decided to destroy Dean and usurp his grassroots. Big mistake. They are trying to ordain a winner before most states even vote. Oops. I love how Party leadership stood up for Dean and said that the scream was over the top and blatantly unfair. Oh wait, they didn't. Dean was right, our votes are not transferable. Maybe they were before the hit was put out for us in Iowa, but definitely not now.

[fujiyama]

65. Dean - the enemy?

You have got to be crazy. I see no evidence Dean will "cause problems". If he gets more delegates, while winning fewer states, that's how the system works.

I myself think the strategy is doomed to fail...

But we'll just have to wait and see...

[HazMat]

48. I agree

I fear that Team Kerry is ignoring Dean and simply regarding him as a nuisance who will go away. That is a risky strategy. Dean can cause trouble even though he can't win. Kerry must deliver the death blow to Dean so Democrats can more clearly deal with the GOP/Bush.

[Darth_Kitten]

33. it's so crazy it just may work!

:thumbsup:

[isbister]

36. The goal is to have the field of seven candidates whittled down

...so Dr. Dean can challenge Mr. Kerry one-on-one, a contest the Dean camp believes it can win as Senator Kerry faces greater scrutiny.

#1 - How many times did Kerry challenge Dean to a one-on-one debate when Dean had his big lead? I know Dean had no interest. I cannot help but think Kerry might bring that up and tell Dean where he can go.

#2 - Sharpton and Kucinich have been operating on not so much money. Both have pledged to stay until the end. Kerry would not exclude them if he was stupid enough to take a debate challenge by Dean

#3 - Has Dean seen the SurveyUSA polls for FL (1/24/04 - 1/26/04, Kerry +22) and CA (1/20/04 - 1/22/04, Kerry +5), without complete Iowa bounce and no NH bounce?

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

I may be way off here but skipping two weeks while Kerry's winning state after state... doesn't seem like it will give folks a whole lot of confidence in your campaign.

[TLM]

55. Apples and oranges...

"#1 - How many times did Kerry challenge Dean to a one-on-one debate when Dean had his big lead? I know Dean had no interest. I cannot help but think Kerry might bring that up and tell Dean where he can go."


Having 1 on 1 debates when 9 guys are running is rude. Having 1 on 1 debates when there are only 2 guys left running, is not.

Funny how even when Kerry was behind he wanted special treatment... but what do you expect from a DC insider.


"#2 - Sharpton and Kucinich have been operating on not so much money. Both have pledged to stay until the end. Kerry would not exclude them if he was stupid enough to take a debate challenge by Dean"

Yet he asked Dean to exclude them when he wanted 1 on 1 debates. More hypocrisy from the Kerry camp.



"#3 - Has Dean seen the SurveyUSA polls for FL (1/24/04 - 1/26/04, Kerry +22) and CA (1/20/04 - 1/22/04, Kerry +5), without complete Iowa bounce and no NH bounce?"

And? Should we just give up and coronate Kerry because he's up in the polls this week before 80% of the voters get to vote in their primaries? We know polls can turn around fast... and something tells me we'll see some big turn around in Feb.

[milkyway]

37. It's the Rope-a-Dope strategy. Dean just tries to survive while

Kerry finally wears the bullseye for a couple of weeks. When voters start to remember why they never really wanted Kerry in the first place, here comes Howard Dean, reloaded and fighting in favorable states.

Sounds risky, but it's much better than going all out after Kerry right now in tough states for Dean while Kerry is still enjoying his media honeymoon after Iowa and New Hampshire and the Dean campaign is down. The biggest problem I see is that Kerry could amass a large number of delegates before Super Tuesday, so he will not even have to win the big states, just finish a solid second to add to his delegate totals.

[Hoppin_Mad]

39. Rope-a-dope :-) Worked for Ali - It'll work for Dean too ! -nt-

[Freddie Stubbs]

61. The problem is that every time Kerry wins, he becomes stronger

If he wins big on Tuesday, he will likey get even more support. Dean's only hope is if Kerry stumbles somehow in the next few weeks. If Kerry doesn't, Dean probably won't win ANY primaries (except VT).

[Lefta Dissenter]

42. Ready and waiting in Wisconsin

for Dean, et al, to show up. All I can say is that that last week before our primary will be FUN, FUN, FUN!!! With Wisconsin having the only primary that week, we'll certainly get all the action for a few days!

I look forward to meeting you all, even if you ARE supporting the wrong candidates! :D

[mzmolly]

49. Adding, when you can't write yourself a check for six million, you have to

think on your feet.

[frustrated_lefty]

56. Wasn't it 6.9 million?

It's hard to keep track, I guess, when your spouse foots the bill.

[TLM]

58. That's more telling than anything....

Dean's money comes from the people... and Kerry's money comes from, KERRY.

[Shanty Oilish]

60. Rounding off the numbers

NH has around 20 delegates, the Tuesday primaries around 200, and the candidate needs around 2000 for nomination.
I wouldn't call Dean toast at this point, or Kerry inevitable.