Polls for Tuesday's - "Crack for the weak"

[cindyw]

South Carolina
Edwards 26%, Kerry 18%, Clark 13%, Dean 11%, Lieberman 5%, Undecided 15%
(RCP Average (1/23-29)
Edwards 25%, Kerry 25%, Dean 9%, Clark 8%, Lieberman 5%, Undecided 22%
(Zogby Tracking (1/27-29)

Arizona
Kerry 28%, Clark 20%, Dean 15%, Edwards 9%, Lieberman 7%, Undecided 19%
(RCP Average (1/21-29)
Kerry 28%, Clark 17%, Dean 12 %, Edwards 6%, Lieberman 6%, Undecided 18%
(Zogby Tracking (1/27-29)

North Dakota
Kerry 31%, Clark 15%, Edwards 6%, Dean 5%, Lieberman 2%, Undecided 40%
(The Forum/WDAY (1/26, 1/28)

Delaware
Kerry 27%, Lieberman 16%, Dean 14%, Edwards 9%, Clark 8%, Undecided 24%
(ARG (1/28-29)

Missouri
Kerry 44%, Edwards 14%, Dean 8%, Clark 8%, Lieberman 4%, Undecided 15%
(RCP Average (1/26-29)
Kerry 46%, Edwards 15%, Dean 7%, Clark 6%, Lieberman 3%, Undecided 15%
(ARG (1/28-29)
Kerry 45%, Edwards 11%, Dean 9%, Lieberman 4%, Clark 3%, Undecided 20%
(Zogby Tracking (1/27-29)

New Mexico(taken before Iowa and NH)
Dean 18%, Clark 16%, Kerry 8%, Lieberman 8%, Edwards 4%, Undecided 34%
(Albuquerque Jrnl (1/12-15)

Oklahoma
Clark 25%, Kerry 18.3%, Edwards 17.8%, Dean 9%, Lieberman 7.7%, Undecided 16.7%
(RCP Average (1/21-29)
Clark 27%, Kerry 19%, Edwards 17%, Dean 9%, Lieberman 5%, Undecided 23%
(Zogby Tracking (1/27-29)
Kerry 20%, Clark 18%, Edwards 13%, Dean >6%, Lieberman >6%, Undecided <33%
(The Oklahoman (1/28)

How do you think things will change in 3 days and what events will affect these polls? I am curious as to what you think. I think each of the candidates will have a chance to take over in one state, but after Dean skips them, who has the money to run in all the states?

Then Michigan (poll ended before NH)
Kerry 37%, Dean14% , Edwards 14%, Clark 10%
EPIC/MRA (1/20-25)

*I have tried to only include polls that ended after Iowa and New Hampshire. I have noted otherwise. I am sorry, I have no numbers for Kucinich and Sharpton. My source did not list them. Also note that many of the number are rounded unless they were close between candidates and then I left them.

[jfxgillis]

1. Are you coallating these yourself?

Are are you getting them from one site and re-posting?

The RealClear poll of polls is thorougly contaminated with pre-NH numbers.

[cindyw]

2. I got it there and collated it myself in a readable format.

I didn't link to it because it is RW. That is why I only listed stuff that ended after NH. With two exceptions.

[jfxgillis]

3. Okay!

My prediction, then, is that Kerry will spend Monday in OK or in SC and OK in a bid for a 7-state sweep and that there's about a 50/50 chance he'll get it.

In which case, it's all over but the shouting except I expect (and hope) that Dean stays in for good while in a bid for delgates and platform influence.

[leyton]

4. Wow. Kerry's really in a good position.

I had no idea he was doing so well in so many states. This could be over quickly... it could keep going, but I'd bet on the former.

[jfxgillis]

6. It's game theory, really which is why

I'm SINCERELY (despite my seeming callousness elsewhere) saddened by the remaining candidates' supporters (with the door ajar for Edwards and opened a crack for Dean) clinging to dwindling possibilities. I'm harsh to the Clark supporters because hoping for a miracle is no way to run a campaign.

Once a player starts generating positive payoffs out of a game matrix while the others are generating negative payoffs, the cumulative advantage becomes definitive so quickly it makes your head spin.

At this point, to adopt the appropriate Super Bowl weekend football analogy, it will take either a turnover by Kerry or a Hail Mary by one of his opponents--NEITHER of which is impossible, btw, just improbable.

I don't see a Hail Mary strategy for any of the remaining candidates, and of all the candidates, the least likely to commit a turnover is Kerry, a seasoned pro who won a Senate race where even a minor mistake might've turned the tide either way.

[molly]

5. That is one beautiful and moving picture