10% edge to overcome Diebold and ES&S and "squeak" to victory. Diebold and ES&S can't just invent election numbers, and they can't tweak the numbers in a really lopsided election (although they're working on it*). I'd say 10% is the minimum we need. If Kerry had won by 10% instead of 5%, it's possible he would be president today (although I think they had a Plan C--"terrorist alert" shutdown of the vote on the west coast, for that eventuality). I think it's much more possible in Congressional elections to win by sheer overwhelming disgust with Bushites and consequent big turnouts. I'd feel better if it were a 20% spread (and maybe it is--who knows with these polls? --we DO know that they skew them to Republicans on the thin grounds that Republicans vote more, something I think stopped being true in 2004, if not before).
On Bush's 40% support for the war. First of all, I don't believe it. I think support for the war is about 30%, at best (Bush's hardcore support). I'd really like to see the questions on this one, because I think it may be people (about 10% of them) registering their approval of recent "troop withdrawal" talk, but not necessarily approval of the war itself, of the on-going conduct of the war, and of all the lies and how we got into it. They term it his "handling of the war." Did they time-limit it, like, his handling of the war last week? How did they put it?
If it's what I think it is--the "troop withdrawal" talk--then it's hardly an endorsement of the war. It's an endorsement of ENDING the war.
And then there are the SIXTY PERCENT who HATE THIS WAR and whose MAJORITY view has been completely ignored by the White House, the Congress and the war profiteering corporate news monopolies for three frigging years, since February 2003, before the invasion, when 58% of the American people opposed it!
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http://www.tmsfeatures.com/tmsfeatures/subcategory.jsp?file=20051124ctnbk-a.txt&catid=1824&code=ctnbk ----------------------------------------------------
LATER EDIT: Just noticed it's a 13% difference, pro-Dem. Even better! We're getting into the range of feasible wins. I'd say Dems have about a 5% handicap going in. 5% WILL BE automatically assigned to the Republican candidates by these Bushite corporations' "trade secret" programming. Since there are no significant audits or recounts--and in some cases it's not even possible (no paper record)--there is little we can do about this handicap--until we rid ourselves of these machines and the corporations who control them. It will probably mostly be taken from Republican votes for the Dem, so it won't be very noticeable. But when they have to get into switching Dem votes, or vote swtiching in Dem counties, that's where they are more vulnerable and may be more cautious, especially in a blowout Dem win. (I noticed this in the Boxer-Kerry totals in Calif in 2004. Statewide, she won by 20%, Kerry won by 10%. Her edge over Kerry came all from Republican counties. Ergo--if what I think about this is true--they stole a bunch of Republican votes for Kerry, to help pad Bush's national popular majority--but left Boxer alone because she was a shoe-in, and maybe also because the wingers didn't want Bill Jones--Boxer's opponent--to do well. It would have made him a rival to Schwarzenegger.)