Of course, other 'experts' think his estimates are a bit on the ridiculous side, even pooh-pooing his primary guestimate of 1000 years.
No doubt, if allowed to, 'Science' will one day extend our lives by a substantial amount--and even the notion of perpetual life isn't out of the question. How soon? Perhaps this guy's right and within the next 25 years, they'll find a means to extend lifespans by 30 years and then before those 30 are up, find another 50 and so on until they have it all worked out. I could happen.
Alas, if it's 25 years before we have the first part of the answer... I'll be needing more than that...
What I want them to come up with is BOTH life-extension by slowing or stopping the aging process AND a reverse-aging technique. That is, I wouldn't want to live another 100 years at, say, age 80 (perhaps I'll feel differently if and when I make it that far). Heck, I'd imaging everyone over 40 will be wanting to shed a few years (more likely a decade or more).
Even so, though, there already exist chemicals that prolong the lives (as well as rejuvenate the quality of those lives) of lab animals--which would probably work on humans... There are a number of products to reduce (and some new ones that actually undo) the aspect of aging called
glycation "Every second, a destructive process called “glycation” occurs throughout the body. Glycation can be described as the binding of a protein molecule to a glucose molecule resulting in the formation of damaged, nonfunctioning structures. Glycation alters protein structure and decreases biological activity. Glycated proteins, which accumulate in affected tissue, are reliable markers of disease. Many age-related diseases such as arterial stiffening, cataract and neurological impairment are at least partially attributable to glycation." (the same article suggests that the supplement Carnosine (among many others) helps to reduce this process, which therefore might help one either extend one's life or at least age more gracefully). Even so, whenever there is a more effective drug/supplement/chemical, it's almost never available to the public for whatever reason. Reasons include things like it hasn't been tested on humans yet, or it has serious known side-effects (etc). Yet sometimes there's no apparent reason why--sometimes these supplements are available outside the U.S. and even have a record of human use...
One gets the sense that if a 'wonder' anti-aging or
youthenizing was discovered and found harmless/healthful... we'd never get to see it. Even if we did, can you imagine how much the discoverer would be able to (and probably would) charge for it? Even just regular old human growth hormone is extremely expensive. Even beyond the question of whether known (or unknown) forces would prevent the distribution of such a drug or whether it would be so expensive that only a few could afford it. No doubt it would be expensive, but if it was available at all, at least that could play a necessary role in limiting the impact of such a powerful population growth enhancing factor... Thus we face the question of whether we even should have access...
For the religious out there, there would be the question of would God approve? After all, Science is a tool of Satan, and this would be artificially altering the lifespans which God or the Intelligent Designer intended for us.
For the rest of us, though, we'd be face with more practical concerns...
Once upon a time, there were only half as many people in America (the U.S.)(actually, that, and similar statements could be said of any growing population-duh). Yes, when we look around and see all the pollution, noise, crime, mountains of garbage... or consider how the traffic has made the once pleasurable act of 'going for a drive'... or find that the movies's are sold-out or the restaurant has a long wait for a seat... or hear about another species whose habitat just changed into a housing development... or whatever, the largest contributor is population growth. Back to the remark about half as many people here--that was just short of 149 million. Amazingly, that happened in 1950. What surprises me, is that I can actually remember when there our country had 100 million fewer people in it. Yes, the roads were alot less crowded!
The United States now has an estimated 297,828,319 people. We're growing at approximately 2.5 million persons per year (rounded average for the decade of the 1990's). As of a few minutes ago, there were an estimated 6,488,813,487 people in the world. That's more than I can count on BOTH hands (actually a power of 10 for each finger). That's alot of mouths to feed. Unfortunate in some ways, fortunate in others, everyone's going to die. In fact, all the people who've ever lived who aren't still living, died (even if one of them is rumored to have gotten up again--but he didn't stick around). If people in significant numbers, suddenly stopped dying of old age... uh... it wouldn't be long before civilization would collapse and large numbers of causes other than old age (war, pestilence, starvation, etc).
Therefore, since population growth would cause enormous, "life or death" problems (how 'punny') for the world, clearly it would have to be carefully regulated. Either it, or reproduction. Anyone being allowed to live beyond their normal life spans, would need to be neutered (or 'fixed') so as to not further add to the problem. Still, since some people don't procreate at all anyway... that's not enough. Strict population growth control would have to be enforced. One consequence might well be a vast increase in the number of pregnancies falling victim to 'early termination'. Make no mistake though, this would be a dramatic reduction in future generations. If everyone took advantage of this option, we'd need to prevent all births in excess of the now much smaller death rate (we need to do this now anyway!).
This could be good in a way, since only a few could be allowed to procreate, then we might be selective about who gets to be parents (and I think too many people are allowed to become parents when they don't care or are utterly incompetent). Another option would be, perhaps, to allow a couple to produce up to two offspring--where for each baby born, one of the parents has to be euthanized (pregnancies that involve more than twins would have to either be terminated or the extras would have to be surgically removed or euthanized at birth--not a pretty option). The waiting list for making babies would be long indeed.
Worse yet, if mostly everybody took advantage (and it could reasonably become the custom for everyone to do so in time)... more and more fu_ked up people would be around. As they'd live through more difficult experiences by virtue of just being around longer, some number people would just become more and more unstable as opposed to the normal circumstance that by the time they'd lived through all they could handle, they'd have been old and ready to go anyway. Most people, though, I think would learn to handle the longer lives even including the additional grief events. Still, as people lived longer, even modest investment would grow until no one would have to work. As people would live so long, they'd naturally not want to place so much focus on work which consumes what seems like most of most peoples short lives now. Then too, how many careers would one have--even if one chose to continue working, before boredom set in. Even so, I don't thing just being bored or having to face a few more stressful events (which might even make a person more resiliant after a few lifetime's worth) would lead anyone to take the 'early' out option... Some people who're slobs and failures in this life would just be wasting space for any number of normal lifespans--to the exclusion of many potential new idividuals.
Just considering human memory, extended lifespan may not even have much meaning. After a few decades, how much do you remember of life back then? In many professions, if you stop practicing a skill or keeping abreast of changes, you literally lose the ability to perform key components of your job. Often it's just that you 'forget' much of what you 'knew'... You had to keep doing, studying, refreshing memory, or essential elements just fade away. Just consider a computer programmer who was proficient in a given programming language/environment. If he/she stops doing that or does something else for a year or two... many wouldn't be able to sit down and be productive. Sure, they'd relearn and catch up very much faster than someone without such experience and they'd still know some very important aspects of the work that a new programming wouldn't, but the thing is--much of the knowledge they had been so proficient on and had instant access to, just disappears, some of it being completely gone forever. Now figure such things on a scale of decades, centuries, or millenia... 600 years from now, how much would you remember? Would you even remember what you did for a living this century? Without markers such as child-rearing, you'd have even less ability to remember what you did, when. It very much could be such that your brain becomes so filled with fragments of memories and knowledge that it would all become a blur. What point is a life of tens or hundreds of hundreds of years if you can't remember much (or even most) of it?
As it is, many people's lives are rotten and might even be called a catastrophe--so much so that death is almost a kindness, a relief. Still, people who aren't happy are still unlikely to choose to die. Here again is a procedure that would probably develop that wouldn't sit well with various of the religions--the procedure being that as an individual lives on, at some point they very well might welcome death, and there would be such an option. People could and would be choosing when they'd had enough and were ready to quit. That would be though of as suicide (though in a practical sense, people would come to terms with it and not think of it in the negative terms people currently associate with suicide). So people who really should go ahead an die, probably wouldn't for a long, long time. Some would never be able to make the decision. Others would be violently opposed to the whole notion of choosing to die.
Life, or rather Death, serve a purpose... it allows for evolution. Humanity will cease to evolve. Although, I'd say it's unlikely that as a species we'll continue for more than a few thousand years, much less a million or more, anyway... Even so, "evolution" occurs over such long time scales that we'd scarcely notice that we've forgone that aspect of the future. On a much more immediate scale, Death still makes a difference! Perhaps you have to have lived several decades to recognize it, but the world (especially as relating to our technology) changes very fast--and that after some amount of such change, as individuals, we're... out of touch. Perhaps you could call us 'obsolete' or just a bunch of 'fossils'. Many of the older generation has not and possibly cannot adapt to the new techology--essential elements of how they think, how they relate, and what they're comfortable with is formed during their childhood and/or youth... and the world has changed out from under them. Young people, for example, teenagers have little in common with people who are mid-life or later and vise-versa. The question arises, can people handle such massive change again and again and again and... and so on, century after century? Perhaps some will adapt and continually adapt just find... Most, however, won't do as well. It very much seems that our minds are designed for a short lifespan.
Likewise, will we suddenly stop or slow in our technical and social evolution? Will we keep up the rapid pace of scientific advancement? Given that it's just how scientists think and that it's their passion to know new things, I don't think that will slow very much... Even so, without the continuous renewal presented by having large generations of youth being infused into human society... something won't be happening. Though there's no rule saying that rapid change is necessarily good, so if we do slow down, that could be just fine. It's a question of how much we'll slow down and what forms that will take.
Then again, that was all considering the extended lifespan to be 1000 or maybe 5000 years... what if it really was eternal--until something other than age got you? Whoa. Hard to figure.
So much for living forever (or anything close to it). :crazy: