http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/the-imminent-debate-on-pr_b_10071.htmlIn his New York Times column on Thursday, November 3, David Brooks trots out what will surely be the White House line about pre-war intelligence on WMD as the Libby scandal and Congressional hearings unfold: the whole world believed Saddam had WMD including Bill Clinton, Al Gore, Sam Berger and Madeleine Albright -- not to speak of Jacques Chirac, Vladimir Putin and probably Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez and all the janitors at the United Nations.
But that was not the issue. What the Cheney cabal's forward-leaning spin was selling was "imminent danger" of WMD use, not their past or potential existence. Many, including UN arms inspectors, believed Saddam still had the capacity to reinvigorate WMD programs shut down after the first Gulf War and would do so if given the chance. Indeed, Iraqi scientist Mahdi Obeidi has since confirmed to me and others that he had hidden a prototype centrifuge for uranium enrichment in his back yard so the nuclear effort could later be revived. However, after more than a decade of inspections and sanctions, Saddam had been effectively defanged and contained as a threat beyond his borders.
No one in the Clinton administration or the UN Security Council outside Britain (or the likes of Brent Scowcroft) believed Saddam was a threat sufficient to meet the 2002 US National Security Strategy test that called for preemption "against forces that present imminent danger of attack." Thus, the only hope for war was to manufacture a compelling case of imminent danger.
In Congressional hearings, Cheney will surely revert to blaming the CIA, pointing to the National Intelligence Estimate that checked the "high probability" box on its assessment that "if he got fissile material," Saddam could put together a weapon quickly. Thus, the absolutely critical importance of promoting as credible the report of Niger yellowcake. The case was so shaky that pulling out this one thread would unravel it all.
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