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Ohio DUers: Will the Ohio Redistricting Measure pass?

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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-03-05 12:28 PM
Original message
Ohio DUers: Will the Ohio Redistricting Measure pass?
According to Kos, if State Issue 4 (The Ohio Redistricting Measure) passes there is a good shot that democrats could pick up 4-6 House Seats in the state. If that were the case it would be a big step towards recapturing the house in 2006.

How is it doing? do you think it will pass? I know that the state GOP is in disarray, and so hopefully an anti-GOP mood will help.
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madmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-03-05 12:37 PM
Response to Original message
1. N W Ohio here and believe it or not...
Edited on Thu Nov-03-05 12:40 PM by madmom
it's eerily quiet about the issue, there are some letters to the editor in the local papers, which I would say are running about 70-30 pro, other than that I'm not really hearing much. Sorry :shrug:

edited to say: I do have my yard sign out and have been passing out fliers, hopefully getting the word out!
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MostlyLurks Donating Member (738 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-03-05 12:39 PM
Response to Original message
2. It will be close on all of the RON measures.
Edited on Thu Nov-03-05 12:42 PM by MostlyLurks
For a while, I thought RON would run the table, but lately there are a lot of anti-RON signs and commercials starting to pop up. It will be very, very close, too close to call. But my gut still says 3 and 5 will be defeated, 2 and 4 will pass. I'd almost be willing to bet on passage of 2.

Mostly

On Edit:
Issue 2: Absentee and vote-by-mail options.
Issue 3: Changes campaign contribution rules.
Issue 4: Redistricting, as in OP
Issue 5: Creates non-partisan board in charge of elections.
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madmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-03-05 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I'm curious in what part of Ohio do you live...
I've only seen one anti-RON sign and I purposely look for them.
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MostlyLurks Donating Member (738 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-03-05 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. Westerville
Northeastern suburb of Columbus (with a name like Westerville, doesn't it have to be a Northeastern suburb?). Staunchly Republican (Pat Tiberi's district).

I work in Granville, about 25 miles to the east, through farm country. Staunchly Republican, though Granville has more Democratic tendency than is to be expected.

Though there are a lot of pro-RON signs, they are almost uniformly in the same yards where I saw Kerry/Edwards signs a year ago. I'm seeing the anti-RON signs in the Bush/Cheney yards and in "public" spaces like median strips, business campuses, etc.

Mind you - it's not a lot of them, certainly not outnumbering the pro-RON signs. BUT, it's more than I saw 6 weeks or a month ago, there are more everyday and I have seen only anti-RON commercials thus far, no pro-RON commericals. I am considering only TV commericals, as I listen to AAR, so they're obviously skewing pro-.

Mostly
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MrModerate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-03-05 12:41 PM
Response to Original message
3. Painful ambivalence on my part
(Disclaimer -- I'm not an Ohio DUer, but rather former-Californinan, former-Expatriate, currently Maryland DUer).

The California thing is the source of my ambivalence. Polticians gerrymandering their districts is clearly a political evil that ultimately disenfranchises us all. Look at Texas! From the results of their elections, you'd think there isn't a Democrat in the state. But like most other places, it's a roughly even split between Pubbies, Dems, and Independents. But the Dem and Independent votes don't mean squat, because of the way the state's been apportioned.

Similarly, in California, the Dems have owned the legislature forever, and have the districts sewed up tight. Under the current system, no Dem state legislator is ever going to lose his/her seat, and congressional districts will never change (except that every once in awhile some pol will get his/her tail in a crack and be ridden out of town on a rail).

As a Democrat, I'm supposed to enjoy the fact that my party has the place under control. But it makes me uncomfortable. If it's bad for Texas, isn't it bad for California, and Ohio, and the US?

On the other hand, the Schlongenator's plan to turn redistricting over to an impartial (hah!) panel puts fear in my heart because the absolute number of Dems vs 'Licans is likely to shift the wrong way.

Is there really any way to make redistricting nonpartisan? And what criteria should you apply when making up a district? Is socioeconomic similarity of interest the single most important factor you should be looking at?

Opinions welcomed.
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MostlyLurks Donating Member (738 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-03-05 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. I have no idea how redistricting is done.
I can't comment on how redistricting should be done, because I have no idea how it should or could work, but what I will say is this:

1. No politician or party should have control of the means by which disctricts are broken up. It's a clear conflict of interest, as evident in Texas and Ohio and California. We can't trust politicians for much, and I'm inclined to say that's triply so where voting boundaries are concerned.

2. Districting policies and methods should be uniform throughout the US. If a formula for deciding on racial/ethnic makeup works one place, I see no reason it won't work in all other places.

3. I'd rather it be fair for all, instead of screwing me half the time and my opponent half the time. So I'd offer my "endorsement" (and all the riches and rewards that come with it) to both the OH and CA measures ASSUMING they're both designed with real equality in mind, and not some short-term "fair" outcome and long-term "screws over the other side" scenario.

Mostly
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ohtransplant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-03-05 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
5. It's still an uphill battle at this point.
Those against issues 2, 3, 4, and 5 have invested large $$$ in confusing the issue. The big $$$ are obviously against changing our broken election system.

In addition, it's been hard motivating those in Ohio who are in favor of fair elections. People - even though they know what happened here last year - are somewhat apathetic.



See this thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


Also see www.reformohionow.org

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LynneSin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-03-05 12:52 PM
Response to Original message
7. Did you see on Kos: The Gropenator is campaigning for Ohio Redistriciting
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/11/3/114852/246

The Terminator's decision to throw his support behind a redistricting ballot measure in Ohio is giving Buckeye State Republican Congressmen heartburn. The Ohio redistricting measure (state Issue 4) is similar to proposition 77 in California, so the Terminator is backing it. (If approved, the California measure is expected to help Republicans. In Ohio, that state's redistricting measure would help Democrats. Ohio Republicans estimate they could lose between four to six seats if state Issue 4 is passed).

One Ohio Congressman, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said he understands that Schwarzenegger is "trying to save his own political hide, but he is doing it at our expense."

Ohio Republicans are so angry about the Terminator "meddling" in their state that the issue has been discussed at private meetings in the Capitol and prompted them to enlist the aid of House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Illinois). Hastert confirmed to the Grind that he had spoken to Schwarzenegger "a couple of times" about the issue, before the California governor officially endorsed the Ohio proposal on Oct. 19.



Poor Arnold. Everyone hates him.

McCain cut an ad in favor of Prop 77 in California. Will he be consistent and campaign in favor of redistricting in Ohio as well? (I won't hold my breath.)
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Epiphany4z Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Nov-03-05 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
8. I wish I knew
I am however volunteering to help out this weekend. I live in portage county so my view of things gets a little skewed we are a bit of a democratic strong hold here. We had Kerry over Bush by high 50s or low 50s so.

One problem is getting people out to vote. Most around me vote for pres and that is about it.
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