74-77 passing=4 more years of Schwarzenegger

[Pushed To The Left]

That is my prediction, and that is what I have tried to get through to voters that I have spoken too. I don't think some voters realize that this election will directly affect 2006. If Schwarzenegger's ballot measures pass, it will be seen by many voters as a mandate for his agenda.

However....if we can defeat 74-77, Schwarzenegger's special election will be seen as a disaster and huge waste of money, and California will turn blue again in 2006!

[shance]

1. This election will be rigged most likely. We cannot trust the outcome

unless there are public tabulations of PAPER BALLOTS by citizens in each precinct monitored by videos and independent auditors.

[Cha]

2. I can't believe we are

talking about the voting like this in California, of all places.

How bad does it have to get before the voters get off their collective ass and get the crooks and destroyers out of the power seat?

Why should shovelnator win when he's so down in the polls?

[tinrobot]

3. Polls are pretty firmly against most of the initiatives

If we see a 10-20 point gap in the polls suddenly reverse on election day, we'll know something is up.

Here's some polling data:

http://www.ktvu.com/politics/4686887/detail.html

[AlGore-08.com]

7. That polling data is over a month old. Here's Angus Reid's latest

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/9472

10/20/05

Polling Data

How would you vote on each of the proposals in the Nov. 8 special election?

Prop. 75 (Public Employee Union Dues)
Yes No
70% 30%

Prop. 73 (Parental Notification)
Yes No
54% 46%

Prop. 74 (Teacher Tenure)
Yes No
50% 50%

Prop. 77 (Redistricting)
Yes No
50% 50%

Prop. 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits)
Yes No
30% 70%

Source: Knowledge Networks / Stanford University
Methodology: Online interviews to 459 likely California voters, conducted from Sept. 15 to Sept. 21, 2005. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.

[Gormy Cuss]

19. Newer survey, same percents, posted at KN site

Suspiciously so -- the exact same percents as the earlier survey?
It can happen, but rarely does. Since Knowledge Networks uses a panel there may be overlap among respondents in each survey.

Note it's credited as Knowledge Networks/Stanford/Hoover Institution.

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20051017006280&newsLang=en

Survey conducted between Oct. 7 -12.

Prop. 74 (Teacher Tenure) and Prop. 77 (Redistricting) split down the middle.

Prop. 76 (State Spending): 70% in favor

Prop. 75 (dues) 70% in favor.
******
Other props
Prop. 73 (Parental Notification) leading by a margin of 54% to 46%, but this within margin of error

Prescription drugs
Prop. 78 (pharma version) 59% in favor, 41% opposed
Prop. 79, 58% to 42%.

Prop. 80 (utility regulation) 37% in favor, 63% opposed.

This survey is the first of two planned online surveys. A second poll will be conducted at the end of October, in the final weeks preceding the election on November 8.

Survey Methodology

The S-H-KN poll is based on 1006 interviews conducted between October 7 and October 12 with 459 respondents considered to be likely voters. The survey was conducted by Knowledge Networks of Menlo Park, jointly funded by Stanford's Institute for Research in the Social Sciences (IRiSS) and the Hoover Institution

[longship]

13. Defeatism.

I guess I shouldn't even bother sending in my ballot, eh?

Sheesh!

[melody]

18. It's an old psy ops strategy... defeat by hopelessness

It's the main reason for that faceless mass of millions who never vote.

[Patchuli]

4. All initiatives except 79 and 80 are NO!

Give us Californians some credit. No one likes Arnold!

[unrepuke]

15. This will be my vote

[tularetom]

5. Ya gotta think positive

Even the ads for the propositiions make Schwarzenegger look like some sort of simian subhuman. I'll grant you there is a significant anti government worker bloc out there but when anyone takes a minute to think about it they realize that govt workers include teachers nurses cops and firemen, all of which everyone loves. Hmm let's see...braying jackass vs trusty fireman...no question which way I'd vote.

Besides, if the ballot measures pass there is a viable recall movement going on as we speak.

[aquart]

6. I did phone surveys for the California Republicans on this...

And most Democrats I spoke to were completely misinformed about the propositions. I expected it from the Republicans, but the Dems have utterly failed to educate our own on these issues.

[Gloria]

8. Prop. 73, the parental notification is a case in point. It contains

language that is a setup for the "fetus is a person" crap kind of test case, according to Mike Rechtenwald (I think that's the Mike..or is it Mike R. Hull?)

Anyway, imagine California falling into this trap!!!

[AlGore-08.com]

10. The Republicans have done a good job of using "Dem" sounding ads

Their TV and radio ads make all the initiatives sound like they are anti-special interest, anti-corporation, stand up for the little guy measures. One redistricting (Prop 77) commercial has a woman complaining about the legislature "They fix elections, and what do we get out of it? Nothing!" A radio ad for defunding the unions (Prop 75) has a Pug Congressman praising a nurse who opposes the nursing union making political donations (to Dems, although that's not said), intones that she's one of the real heroes of America, an average citizen "who stands up to powerful special interests".

Meanwhile, Reid is floating "America can do better" as our 2006 slogan.

We are oompah-loompah-doompity-scr*wed.

[snowbear]

9. =ACK=

Pushed.. you're the first person I've ever heard of from Kalee-forn-eyah who thinks Schwarzenegger even has a remote chance of winning re-election!

[MattP]

11. Voting guides

I'm a Dem and I got a glossy 8 page spread from the repubs on how to vote telling me how the governator wanted me to with a voting guide, so far nothing from the Dem's, and I got my absentee ballot two days ago. I just went ahead and voted the opposite of everything they suggested. And on TV all the ads seem to be Arnold complaining about how much money is being spent against him.

[snowbear]

12. Well..

I don't think you Californians will get fooled again! :)

And besides.. can you imagine how he'll do when he actually has to debate this time around? :rofl:

If you remember.. during the special election he ran in, he would only agree to debate in the ONE DEBATE where they actually provided the questions a week ahead of time. He's an actor -- he just rehearsed what the wingnuts told him to say!!

He won't be able to do that this time.

He'll be toast in a real debate. Maybe even worst than this guy:

[OnionPatch]

14. Wow, I just posted the same thing

over on the California forum. I got a couple of glossy voter guides telling me just how to vote for Arnold's props. I also got an automated phone call telling me to vote for prop 75. From the Dems? Nothing. Nada. Haven't heard from them. Heard this morning on NPR that Arnold's opponents have raised more money, but I don't see it. Unless they just aren't bothering to try in my area. It's pretty red here. Someone said they're running a lot of TV ads and I don't watch much TV so that's possible.

[aquart]

17. I talked to lots of Republicans.

They don't understand the propositions either. But they were mostly a whole lot more permissive on abortion than the general Republican stance.

Except for precepts dictated by intense religiosity, people who call themselves Republicans and people who call themselves Democrats are closer than they think. IF you can get past the wording, they think alike on a LOT.

And the fact that both sides are falling for the pretty wording, tells you what they really want. They want the words to be true, not the garbage they're going to get.

[melody]

16. The opposition is doing an excellent job getting their message out

There has been a VERY effective strategy to talk back to Arnold. Anyone who is a parent in California knows how he's gutted our schools. The message is being hammered home - and the Arnoldi are mainly focusing on the Spanish language stations, watched by people who remember well his remarks on "cleaning out California's immigrant population". I know one immigrant I wish we could clean out.

BTW, anyone notice that Arnold's Dark Lord Pete Wilson met the shrub at the airport? Arnie didn't go, but he sent his political guru...the swine.

[senseandsensibility]

20. kick

Agreed. If you're a Californian, talk to everyone you know about this.