Rassmussen: VA Governor's race tied

[Zynx]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20Governo...

September 30, 2005--The race to be Virginia's next Governor is dead even with Republican Jerry Kilgore and Democrat Tim Kaine each earning 45% of the statewide vote.

Two weeks ago, Kilgore had a three point advantage over Kaine. In August, Kilgore held a six-point lead.

<snip>

[underpants]

1. HA! Kilgore is going BIG and NEGATIVE all over TV

And it ain't working

[spooky3]

14. yes, his ads are on constantly in NoVA

[DancingBear]

2. Wes Clark is coming to VA to help stump for Kaine

They'll be a fundraiser in Roanoke with Clark - next week, I think.

Kilgore has been doing horribly in the debates, and his solutions for traffic/highway improvements - THE issue in this election - are laughable.

(Hint: I won't raise your taxes)

Tying him to Bush doesn't hurt, either.

Kaine is no great shakes, but having both Clark (who is very well liked in the "military base" part of VA) and Warner stump for him should help quite a bit in the next several weeks.

[JoshDem]

3. Rasmussen Poll

Rasmussen poll also shows Bush favorable rating up to 46%--how can this be?

[sandrakae]

4. Rasmussen is a Republican

Scott Rasmussen is a Republican. His polls are always slanted toward Republicans. In the Presidential race he was accused of push polling. He always had Bush leading PA, when Zogby and even Strategic Vision had Kerry leading PA. I never put much stock in Rasmussen Polls.

[tritsofme]

16. He also did better than any major pollster in 2004

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/State%20by%20state%20co...

Scott Rasmussen is a Republican, and John Zogby is a Democrat, that doesn't make either any less credible in my eyes.

[Name removed]

5. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JoshDem]

6. Not celebrating--questioning the validity

How can he be rising....and can we trust the Rasmussen poll on Virginia???

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. Uh huh

Whatever you say...

[newyawker99]

8. Hi JoshDem!!

Welcome to DU!!

[Awsi Dooger]

9. We have one potential problem in this race

The overwhelming trend in gov races beginning in 2002 is to kick out the party in control if there is no incumbent to state his/her case. Otherwise, in open races voters seem to routinely throw out the party they associate with the gov mansion. This trend was bizarre in 2002, something like 21 of 23, if I remember correctly. The one we should have won, but did not, in 2002 based on this criteria was Massachusetts, where Shannon O'Brien lost to Romass and extended the GOP's hold on that gov chair.

Of course, in 2002 the economy had tanked suddenly under Bush after years of boomtime, and the electorate seemed determined to take out its wrath locally. The outgoing govs had disastrous approval numbers in many cases. We made the mistake of nominating many lietuenant govs, like Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in Maryland and Mazie Hirono in Hawaii, who could easily be linked to the outgoing unpopular govs they served under.

It shouldn't be as bad in 2005 or 2006. Warner, to my knowledge, has high approval numbers. Still, I'm worried about overcoming this trend in what shapes up as a very close race. In other instances in which the holdover party has been re-elected minus an incumbent, the poll margin has almost always been very high, like in West Virginia in 2004. When the polls have been close the out party normally prevails. The one thankful exception last year was Christine Gregoire's marathon win over Dino Rossi in Washington.

[Ignacio Upton]

11. Trends are meaningless

And in Massachusetts the Republicans have controlled the Governor's mansion since 1990! Also, many of those Governors won in 2002 which was a good year for the Republicans unfortunately due to Bush's popularity at the time.

[Zynx]

12. Most of the parties that lost the state house had unpopular sitting govs.

Warner is very popular with a 69%+ approval rating in a red state. Not bad at all.

[onenote]

10. turnout turnout turnout

Virginia governor's elections are there for the taking by either side if they can boost their turnout to approach the levels they get during "federal" elections. Because Virginia elects governors in years where there is no federal election (either Pres or Congressional), turnout drops off dramatically. In 1997 fewer than 1.5 million voted in the Governor's race and it was only slightly higher in 2001. But in the 2000 and 2004 Presidential races, over between 2.7 and 3.2 million Virginians voted. When you look at particular localities, you can see that while a Dem leaning county like Arlington produced in the neighborhood of 60 thousand votes for Kerry, it only produces around 30-35 thousand for Democratic governor candidates

The votes are there. Every Virginia Democrat has to be pushing the other Virginia Democrats to get to the polls. If we improve on past performance (and the repugs don't), we win.

onenote

[lynne]

13. Virginia is a bit of an odd-ball state -

- while they normally go Republican in national elections, they are historically Democratic in the Governor's office. A list of the last 26 Governor's of VA and their respective political parties is below. Note that there are only five Republican's in the entire list which spans over 100 years.

# 51. Andrew Jackson Montague Democratic 1902-1906
# 52. Claude A. Swanson Democratic 1906-1910
# 53. William Hodges Mann Democratic 1910-1914
# 54. Henry Carter Stuart Democratic 1914-1918
# 55. Westmoreland Davis Democratic 1918-1922
# 56. Elbert Lee Trinkle Democratic 1922-1926
# 57. Harry F. Byrd Sr. Democratic 1926-1930
# 58. John Garland Pollard Democratic 1930-1934
# 59. George C. Peery Democratic 1934-1938
# 60. James H. Price Democratic 1938-1942
# 61. Colgate W. Darden Jr. Democratic 1942-1946
# 62. William M. Tuck Democratic 1946-1950
# 63. John S. Battle Democratic 1950-1954
# 64. Thomas B. Stanley Democratic 1954-1958
# 65. J. Lindsay Almond Jr. Democratic 1958-1962
# 66. Albertis S. Harrison Jr. Democratic 1962-1966
# 67. Mills E. Godwin Jr. Democratic 1966-1970
# 68. A. Linwood Holton Jr. Republican 1970-1974
# 69. Mills E. Godwin Jr. Republican 1974-1978
# 70. John N. Dalton Republican 1978-1982
# 71. Charles S. "Chuck" Robb Democratic 1982-1986
# 72. Gerald L. Baliles Democratic 1986-1990
# 73. L. Douglas Wilder Democratic 1990-1994
# 74. George F. Allen Republican 1994-1998
# 75. James S. Gilmore III Republican 1998-2002
# 76. Mark R. Warner Democratic 2002-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_Virginia

I would think that Kaine should have no problem in this race if history is any indication. However, electing a Democratic Governor in Virginia has no bearing on how VA will go in a national election.

[spooky3]

15. Yes, but didn't you see that all of the Reps who have won

have done so in the past 35 years? And before that time many of the Dems in the south were more like Republicans than Dems but switched after Lyndon Johnson's civil rights act changes.

Kaine very definitely has a "problem"--it is a very close race and Kilgore is spending money like crazy on TV ads. Kaine is not seen as responsible for the Warner-era successes, and doesn't come across as well on TV. Somewhat analogous to Al Gore and Bill Clinton.