Well done, Gerhard Schroeder!!!

[ps1074]

First exit polls in Germany are in and they show that Schroeder's SPD party is just down 1,5% on Merkel's CDU.

Remember - when the campaign started Gerhard Schroeder was almost 20 points down and everyone predicted a big win for CDU/CSU. Really a great come back for Gerhard Schroeder...

More important - Gerhard Schroeder can still form a coalition with the Greens (8,5%) and Linke (7,5%).

Infratest Exit poll:

CDU - 35,5%
SPD - 34%
Greens - 8,5%
Linke - 7,5%
FDP - 10,5%

[still_one]

1. how come the U.S. press is reporting it differently?

[JDPriestly]

2. Do we really need to ask?

The American press does not understand how the German system works. Merkel can get more votes than Schroeder and still lose because she can't put a coalition together that is bigger than his. That's a difficult concept for the likes of the American journalists to comprehend. Just way beyond their understanding. They simply don't know much about the world.

[still_one]

6. I should have put the word scarcasm after my reply

actually I think they do understand, its just that they want to spread the administration's propaganda that Europe is on their side

[enigma-e]

20. The next days are gonna be VERY interesting!

And having said that, the German Freeper SOBs are having fits over the outcome!

I personally have little mercy on them: Let them have a good dose of their own American Election Schadenfreude!

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. I thought a coalition involving the Linke and SPD was thought unlikely

because there was too much bad blood betwwen the leaders after the split of some from the SPD? And it would still be uncertain if those 3 parties would actually have a majority anyway, with these figures, wouldn't it?

[ps1074]

4. The exit polls says these 3 parties will have a clear majority

eom

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. Linke may not form a coalition with SPD

But then you'd have to have new elections. Point here is simple: No way Merkel takes over with these results. The conservatives got their asses handed to them here, even though it appears that they got more votes. SPD, Green, and Linke are all left parties. Add those totals up, and you'd see what here would be 51%-45% in favor of Dems.

[ps1074]

7. yep

And now Merkel says she accepts the mandate to govern :rolf:

Green + SPD = 42%
CSU + FDP = 46%

Linke is the key to the new government. I really hope the left parties unite and form a government.

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. The total for the 3 left parties looks like 50% to me

which is why I thought the majority didn't look clear cut. The distribution of seats might make it over 50%, but I couldn't judge that.

I thought an uneasy coalition of CDU and SPD was thought more likely, by commentators. Which might leave Merkel as chancellor, having to try to work with the SPD.

[1932]

17. Gosh. How'd the media get this one so wrong?

I'm listening to a podcast of BBC 4's Today program from yesterday and, boy, all the guests seem so sure she was going to win. They also spent time trying to characterize Merkl as standing for growth and Schroeder for stagnation -- which was exactly the same spin the NYT put on the election in Norway.

[Mass]

18. Two factors IMHO

- the english-speaking media underestimated the attachment the German have to their social and labor programs. It was one of the reasons why Schroeder was in difficulties, but they recognized that Merkel would be worse.

- Iraq. Merkel was a lot more favorable to alliances with Bush, with the risk that she would send troops there. Most Germans (as most Western Europeans, dont want that).

This probably gave a boost to small parties and even to the SDP against CDU.

[DavidDvorkin]

8. Linke is obviously left

How left are they? I know nothing about them.

[Easy]

10. They stand for...

... a mix of social concepts the SPD once stood for (workers' rights, social welfare, decent health insurance ect., everything that was dropped by the SPD in favor of the neoconservative understanding of economic liberalism), and the more leftist PDS ideals. They are often called communists by others to discredit them (when only a very small fraction from the PDS actually have communistic ideals), but in fact they are now the only real social democrats left.

~Easy

[GreenPartyVoter]

12. Welcome to DU *Wave*

[DavidDvorkin]

15. Thanks, Easy

That sounds good. A coalition with them would presumably mean that some of those principles would be back on the agenda.

[Kellanved]

23. ...nothing

They are a hear nothing, say nothing, do nothing party.

They have nothing in common with Social Democrats. The Social Democrats are - and always were - a progressive worker's rights party.
The "left" (although they are pretty conservative up close) may very well be the unemployed's rights party - without offering perspective that counts for nothing.

[Kellanved]

16. not very

They are largely identical to the GDR's SED. By and large they are the the eastern conservatives- with a lot of smoke and mirrors.

[Easy]

9. Looks like it's gonna be a "great coalition"

Since FDP and Greens already stated that they won't form a coalition together, and the Linke does not want to rule, but planned from the start to go into the opposition, there most likely will be a coalition of SPD and CDU - which is not exactly a good thing...

~Easy

[myrmenki]

11. Schröder won't be junior partner to Merkel

he wants to stay chancellor. He'll do anything to form a coalition with, well, whomever.

[Easy]

13. It does not matter that he would do anything

Because the Greens won't form a coalition with the FDP, and the Linke won't take part in the government, but go into opposition. There simply is no way for him to archive a majority and stay chancellor.

~Easy

[drummo]

19. But when the same happened

in the US in 2000 most -- including many Dems -- called Gore a loser.
When he started the campaign he was down in the the polls by 15-20% , even losing the E. Dole.(!)
So when he ultimately won the popular vote he was a loser who ran a bad campaign.
How do you erase 20-point deficit with a bad campaign? Well, ask Schroeder about that now.

[Mass]

21. Official results

http://de.news.yahoo.com/wahl/ergebnisse.html

Here are the Official results in the rest of the country:

CDU 35,2% (225)
SDP 34,3% (222)
FDP 9,8% (61)
Green 8,2% 51)
Linkspartei 8,7% (54)
Others 3.9% (0)

There is still a district, Dresden, who did not vote and will vote Oct 2. Does anybody know how it could affect the results.

[SpartacusSC]

22. Hmmm...

Linke looks like the Greens before the Realos won out over the Fundis. IF Linke will not coalesce with the SPD and Greens and Schroeder will not (thank reason) entertain a "Grand Coalition" then the process appears to be hung. I haven't kept up with German politics as I should, but Linke is the key and an SPD, Green, Linke coalition is at least viable, since the FDP would be excluded.

[lateo]

24. So who won?

My brother sent me a link claiming victory for Merkel.

[MissHoneychurch]

25. the CDU has the most votes

but not enough with the FDP to get over 50%
and neiter have SPD and the Greens.

So we don't know yet.