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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:30 PM
Original message
Who drops out tomorrow? Predictions:
Edited on Mon Jan-26-04 02:33 PM by Endangered Specie
Give odds on all seven...

Lieberman - 75%
Kucinich - 60%
Sharpton - 10%
Edwards - 1%
Clark - 5%
Dean - 0%
Kerry - -0%

On edit: clarification thanks to kcwayne
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kcwayne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:31 PM
Response to Original message
1. Why would anyone drop out tonight?
The primary is tomorrow.
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #1
7. LOL!
oops
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. fixed that
Edited on Mon Jan-26-04 02:36 PM by Endangered Specie
guess I thought it was on monday bc Iowa was.

Snow has effect on intelligence I guess?

On edit: After all, didnt Braunj drop out a day or 2 before the Iowa caucus?
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JohnLocke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:31 PM
Response to Original message
2. here
Lieberman - 70%
Kucinich - 10%
Sharpton - 15%
Edwards - .1%
Clark - .1%
Dean - .1%
Kerry - -.1%
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aldian159 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:32 PM
Response to Original message
3. Looks like the Joementum
is about to skid to a huge halt...
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Poseidon Donating Member (87 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:32 PM
Response to Original message
4. No one
Edited on Mon Jan-26-04 02:33 PM by Poseidon
No one will drop out tomorrow. Lieberman will stay in till February 3rd. When he does not win any delegates on February 3rd, Lieberman will drop out. All the rest of the candidates will stay in until at least March 2nd.

Here are odds:

Lieberman: 10%
Kucinich: 8%
Edwards 2%
Sharpton 2%
Kerry 1%
Clark 1%
Dean 1%
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mot78 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:32 PM
Response to Original message
5. Joe has "Joementum" and Kucinich and Sharpton are in until the convention
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morgan2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:32 PM
Response to Original message
6. the only one i could see dropping out
is Dean if he has a really poor performance. Lieberman and Kucinich don't have very high expectations for NH I don't think. Sharpton has no expectations. None of these three are going to drop out after this except maybe Lieberman if he gets below 4%.
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MercutioATC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 05:22 PM
Response to Reply #6
19. Dean has more money than God right now...he's in it regardless of the #'s
He can afford to ride out a few disappointing primaries, if need be.
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Walt Starr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
8. I wish that there were Vegas odds like this
I'd bet thousands against Lieberman dropping out tonight!

Nobody in their right mind would be dropping out tonight.
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Poseidon Donating Member (87 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Haha, damn
I thought I was seeing things, Walt! I had made my post and then I was editing mine when I realized that the original poster had edited his! :kicks himself:
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blackcat77 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
11. Lieberman *will* drop out
Edited on Mon Jan-26-04 02:35 PM by blackcat77
Dean might if he finishes fourth or worse. Say 25% chance of that. Everybody else is 0.
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jenk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
12. Joe needs to get the Liebermessage
bye bye
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dolstein Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:48 PM
Response to Original message
13. I don't think anyone will drop out before 2/3
NT
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sistersofmercy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:32 PM
Response to Reply #13
31. I agree
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AntiCoup2K4 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #13
35. This might be the first time I ever agreed with Dolstein, but he's right.
Gephardt bet all of his cards on Iowa, and everybody knew he was gone when he didn't come in first. I don't see anyone else dropping out after a single state primary when the first multi-primary is only one more week away.
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Edge Donating Member (728 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
14. Hopefully Lieberman.
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mikehiggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:56 PM
Response to Original message
15. Why on earth would you think Clark would drop out?
methinks you guys are believing too much in the three P's--polls, pollsters and pundits.

Have faith in the 4-stars!

(ouch! Even I can't believe I wrote that)
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sleipnir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 05:30 PM
Response to Reply #15
24. If Clark doesn't finish 3rd, it'll be a tough road ahead
Just because the Media will ignore him and not give him free press. He'll lose more points in "bounce" to 1-3rd places, and I see a 4th finish for Clark as a dark, dark day. I sure hope it doesn't happen, as it looks like he's catching fire outside of NH, but a poor finish would be extremly bad for the aforementioned reasons.
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Auntie Bush Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #24
28. It's going to be a tough road ahead for everyone!
and Clark doesn't quit when the going gets tough. Neither do I!
I'll be here through thick and thin!
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Cheswick2.0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:57 PM
Response to Original message
16. Lieberman, DK and Sharpton should
Enough is enough. Edwards and Kerry did well in NH and should not drop out. Dean is the one with the money to continue and he has a national organization so he doesn't need to go anywhere.
But DK, Joe Lieberman and Sharpton don't have either the support or the money to stay in. Clark is kind of up in the air.
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Poseidon Donating Member (87 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:59 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Don't tell DK to drop out!
At least DK has been honest throughout the campaign, unlike some candidates. *cough* *cough*
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MuseRider Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:31 PM
Response to Reply #16
30. You want the
guy with the most different platform vs Bush* to drop out and keep in the one with the best organization and the most money? Really? Hmmmm, interesting concept.
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #30
34. Most different doens't necessarily more good
Lyndon Larouche is even more different that Bush. that doesn't mean hi the the guy to take on Bush.
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ozone_man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. That's right there can be extremes either way.
You can be so close to Bush, that there is hardly no difference, as *cough* some candidates, and you can be so far out in left field that there is no way you can be elected like Kucinich. Mind you that I agree with most of what DK says, but it just won't fly with the Democratic Party not to mention the general election.
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On the Road Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 02:57 PM
Response to Original message
17. Nobody Will Drop Out After NH
Lieberman might drop out after Feb 3.

Sharpton and Kucinich will keep going unless they just plain run out of money.

Dean will soldier on even if he has a poor showing in NH and on Feb 3. He's built a national strategy, and will keep using his organization to build delegates as long as he can.

I think this race will be longer and closer than people expect. It won't be decided until at least March.
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mlawson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #17
22. I agree: no one. eom
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Victor Wong Donating Member (45 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 05:24 PM
Response to Original message
20. Lieberman = 75%, Dean = 80%, Clark = 70%
Sharpton = 100%
Kusinich = 100%

Kerry = 0%
Edwards = 0%
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0007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #20
36. Me thinks, Mr. Victor Wong Wrong!
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bushwakker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 05:25 PM
Response to Original message
21. No one
the entire field moves on.
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ncrainbowgrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 05:28 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. Welcome to DU!
Pull up a chair and stay a while!
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bushwakker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. thanks
Been lurking for awhile - don't like all the infighting though. I strongly support Kerry but I like all the candidates (exceptions Lieberman and Sharpton) and will not trash Dean, Edwards or Clark. The Shrub must be beaten.
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Logansquare Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:23 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. You're not alone. Anyone But Bush! nt
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adamrsilva Donating Member (636 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 05:53 PM
Response to Original message
26. Lieberman's the only who might be dropping out
But I doubt it.
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Kathleen04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:31 PM
Response to Original message
29. No one.
I'd say Joe..but saw him on TV saying he's heading to Delaware and SC after NH, so it sounds like he's intent on staying. I'll bet he's out after Feb. 3rd.
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BlueStateGirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:34 PM
Response to Original message
32. I just heard Begala say Clark or Leiberman. Clark has the $$$ to say in
and fight through the 3rd. I think if Joe comes in 5th he has to go.
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Amager Donating Member (80 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-26-04 07:36 PM
Response to Original message
33. The only one who has a lot to lose is Dean if he come in worse than 2nd
I don't see any of them dropping out tomorrow. Super Tuesday is more important than tomorrow.
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