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Unless Dean wins tomorrow night. If he does win I don't see how anyone can beat him. Even the press will have to concede he is the real "real deal".
On the other hand, I doubt that'll happen. If it doesn't, well we're off to Boston. Why?
Dean has millions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of campaign volunteers.
Clark just raised two million dollars in a week, and also has hard working supporters working in every state in the union.
Edwards and Kerry have more limited resources but tremendous "buzz" in the media.
Of the four candidates I think Edwards is the weakest financially (Kerry can always mortgage another mansion) and the thinnest organization. Kerry has the likely support of the Democratic establishment who will be overjoyed that Dean has been slowed, if not stopped.
Kuchinich will soldier on but Lieberman and Sharpton will be more noticeable by their absence from here on out. Assuming of course that the millenium doesn't arrive tonight and only Lieberman voters are left in NH after the Rapture.
Each candidate picks up some delegates in some states and nobody has a clear majority when the convention opens--you can't claim a victory depending on superdelegates until they vote--at which point the fun really begins. After the first ballot, all delegates are free to go wherever they choose and the race is on. CSpan's coverage of the caucus only gives a hint to what will take place.
Keep in mind the big city organizations like Tammany Hall and Chicago's Daley machine no longer have the control over the delegates as they once had. The candidates can go directly to the delegates and they will prove just as loyal to their primary winners as any professional politician does. Ahem.
So who will win when the dust settles?
I think Clark will be the acceptable compromise between Kerry and Dean, or possibly Edwards, and some famous Northern politician will be picked as VP (haven't a clue but if Edwards is the candidate I really think Elliot Spitzer from NY would be a good match.)
If Clark is the nominee I'd suggest someone from California or the Northwest.
Either way, if it goes to a convention, I don't think Dean or Kerry will end up the nominee. We'll see.
Hey, even if I'm totally wrong I'm probably closer to correct than the polls, pundits and pollsters in Iowa and New Hampshire.
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