Can we take back the House And Senate? Has anybody done the math?

[Road Scholar]

I don't think this country can take much more of this bullshit. I was wondering if it was possible to take back both houses.Is it physically possible?

[navvet]

1. Not going to happen in 06

most likely in 08.

That does not mean we should not do all we can to elect Democrats/progressives, but I am just being realistic.:dem:

[Road Scholar]

2. Thanks. I'm hoping for a big rebellion from average republican.

That and a downright pissed-off average Joe is what we need. I'm hoping anyway.

[navvet]

3. I am with you

I would like to see that happen also.

:dem:

[safi0]

5. I don't know

A whole lot about the House, there are so many seats and its so far ahead of time, I really don't know. As far as the Senate goes, I think there are 4-8 seats that I think we can switch. Based on who's announced I think we can win in Pennsylvania, RI, Tennessee, Montana, and a very outside chance in Arizona. If we can recruit the right candidate I think we could win in Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia.

[navvet]

14. Ohio and Virginia

I agree that Ohio appears to be put in play, not Virginia unless Warner decides to run for the Senate, then Virginia goes into the hopper.

[safi0]

16. Exactly what

I meant when I said the right candidate. Anyone else and Allen cruises to an easy re-election

[PurityOfEssence]

4. The House, yes, and we should focus on it.

The House is VERY vulnerable, and that would collapse the dreams of the monarchists in an instant.

[ticapnews]

6. Anything is possible...

All House seats are technically up for grabs, but realistically 90-95% of those seats (both GOP and Dem) are "safe seats" where the incumbent party will win. We would have to pull some upsets in those seats, stave off any upsets in our own seats, AND win the vast majority of the contested seats. That is unlikely. I expect a 3-5 vote gain in the House.

I think we have a net gain of two, possibly three, seats in the Senate making it 53-47 or 52-48.

The wildcard is the outing of Valerie Plame and the subsequent coverup. If the Rove/Libby story smolders this summer and catches fire this fall it will have ramifications in both the House and Senate. There is the potential for a 1974 or 1994 style revolution with a dramatic shift in power in one or both houses of Congress.

[tedoll78]

7. The Senate is the one to watch.

- Santorum is gone; Casey will win his seat.
- Chafee will be in the fight of his life.
- Specter could kick the bucket any day & have his replacement named by Governor Rendell.
- Sanders is gonna win in Vermont.

That's four right there. If we pick-off two more (which may be a stretch), look-out Bush judicial nominees!

[safi0]

8. Sanders is running

As an Independent. The man who he's replacing, Jim Jeffords, was an Independent. After Jefford left the Puke party he was for all practical pruposes considered a Dem. When Sanders wins that seat he will also be considered a Dem for all practical purposes. So all in all what you just suggested would be a change of 3. Specter may not look good but I doubt he passes away, so that would be a net gain of 2.

[Road Scholar]

9. If we could pull the rabbit out of the hat and win both houses

we could shut all this bullshit down. Maybe the safe democratic house could join with the pissed repug and unseat the "safe repug" seats. I don't know, they're ruining the country!

[election_2004]

11. Missouri and Montana....

are also possible pickups, with McCaskill and Tester/Morrison.

[election_2004]

21. You're forgetting Missouri and Montana

Jim No-Talent will probably be challenged by Claire McCaskill.

Conrad Burns should also be running scared.

[LynneSin]

28. Yes, but...

I think Maryland is going to be a tough fight with Paul Sarbanes open seat. If Lt. Gov Michael Steele runs, he'll pull over african-american voters (even though he's a pompous repuke asshole). I"ve heard rumblings that Kweisi Mfume might run on the democratic ticket.

[GreenPartyVoter]

10. Only if we take back the voting machines.

[donsu]

15. kick

nt

[Al-CIAda]

12. Diebold, ES&S, Sequoia will let us know.

[GreenPartyVoter]

18. That diebold logo and slogan are frickin brilliant!! *thumbs up*

[halobeam]

13. Not only do we need more Democrats in the house and senate...

don't we need the ones who are there already, to vote for Democratic issues? Look at what happened with CAFTA... those Democrats should be booted out withOUT fail. Otherwise, we are still in trouble.

[election_2004]

17. Do you honestly believe....

....that a hypothetical Majority Leader Harry Reid would let CAFTA come up for debate in the form that Frist allowed it to?

CAFTA should not be an "end-all" litmus test for every single candidate.

The targets in 2006 should be Santorum, Burns, and Talent - - NOT Stabenow, Cantwell, and the Nelsons.

[tavalon]

19. Hmmm, let me count

Diebold + EE&S + Sequioia = Nope, not a chance.

Sorry, but thank you for playing.

[Pryderi]

20. If Paul Hackett wins in Ohio today, it could be a sign of a Dem victory in

'06

[Road Scholar]

23. I was thinking the exact same thing.

It might be a sign of things to come.nt

[fujiyama]

22. I'm still pessimistic

about either though I believe we can make some gains in the senate.

The only thing frustrating about the senate is that we have several vulnerable senators as well. A few are retiring (like Dayton of MN). Hopefully the Dem running in his place and in MD won't have a tough time.

But several repukes are also not doing so hot. The best example is definetely Santorum. It will be great victory to boot him out. The man is certifiably insane.

[election_2004]

24. My scenario

DEM PICKUPS

(Concentrate on THESE FOUR SEATS)
Santorum ---> Casey
Talent ---> McCaskill
Burns ---> Tester or Morrison
Chafee ---> Whitehouse

DEM HOLDS

Cantwell
Stabenow
Nelson, Bill
Nelson, Ben
Dayton ---> Wetterling or Klobuchar
Sarbanes ---> Cardin or Mfume
Jeffords ---> Sanders

This would bring the U.S. Senate down to a 51-49-1 Republican Majority.

If Harold Ford or Rosalind Kurita can take out Corker/Bryant/Hilleary in Tennessee, it could be a 50-49-1 Republican Majority.

[mmonk]

25. We won't be getting enough victories

without media focus on the Plame outing.

[theboss]

26. That issue won't make a lick of difference in Senate races

It may make a difference in some House races which are usually tied to the President's popularity. But with all the gerrymandering that has gone on over the last 20 years, I'm not sure that old formula holds up anymore.

[mmonk]

27. I think it would make a difference

in NC the next time our two Senators are up for re-election. They are nothing but bush and party loyalists and put both before country or state.

[Road Scholar]

29. NC is one of the states that should have been blue.

I believe the Helms/Bush machine pulled of a stolen election there just like Ohio and Florida.