Making sense of the tracking polls.

[Zynx]

Polls, polls, polls. There are slightly more than a half dozen of them covering New Hampshire for us and all of them are all over the place. For that reason it is now appropriate to sit back and take a good look at them. In order to do that, lets list them all as they stand now.

ARG:
Kerry-38%
Dean-20%
Edwards-16%
Clark-15%
Lieberman-5%

Gallup:
Kerry-36%
Dean-25%
Clark-13%
Edwards-10%
Lieberman-10%

Zogby:
Kerry-31%
Dean-28%
Clark-13%
Edwards-12%
Lieberman-9%

Fox/Wmur Tv:
Kerry-37%
Dean-22%
Edwards-12%
Clark-11%
Lieberman-8%

Boston Herald:
Kerry-35%
Dean-23%
Edwards-14%
Clark-12%
Lieberman-5%

Boston Globe:
Kerry-37%
Dean-17%
Edwards-12%
Clark-11%
Lieberman-7%

Suffolk University:
I can't find the numbers, but they are similar to some of the others.

Now, let's find out what is clear in these poll results. The first obvious thing is that Kerry has a lead and is somewhere between the mid-high 30 percent area. The second thing that is also clear is that Dean is picking up somewhat rapidly. Every poll shows Dean gaining support to varying degrees. Even ARG said that Dean's numbers are climbing in the daily totals into the mid-20s. Third, Clark clearly plunged badly, but has now stabilized at a low level near Edwards and Lieberman. Because these numbers are so close, I won't bother to tier them. However, this is the clear trend in the polls:

1. Kerry and holding
2. Dean gaining somewhat
3. Clark, Edwards, and Lieberman all at a shot for third.

Now, New Hampshire polls can be remarkably wrong. I've read that at one point or another, Suffolk's, Gallup's, ARG's, and many others have missed the mark by 20 or more percentage points. The main reason is that a majority of the electorate can be independent voters.

[onebigbadwulf]

1. Zogby was dead on for Iowa

So I will trust it for NH.

[Zynx]

2. Results, no. Trend, yes.

He got close with the results, picking up a late Edwards surge and a dramatic Gephardt drop, but his main asset was the trend. The same thing for 2000 was when he picked up Gore's trend. I would say that there is certainly a trend building for Howard.

[mmonk]

3. The battle is for third

Hope the people there start thinking real hard. But I also hope some independents come in to help Clark at least make third to send the politicians a message.