New ARG polls for AZ, OK, SC are UP

[jmaier]

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

on edit: show the results

AZ
Clark 21%
Dean 10%
Edwards 15%
Kerry 24%
Kucinich 0%
Lieberman 7%
Sharpton 0%

OK
Clark 23%
Dean 8%
Edwards 18
Kerry 17%
Kucinich 1%
Lieberman 10%
Sharpton 1%

SC
Clark 14%
Dean 9%
Edwards 21%
Kerry 17%
Kucinich 1%
Lieberman 5%
Sharpton 15%

[jmaier]

1. quick kick

:kick:

[WI_DEM]

2. these results will be as heavily influenced by what happens in NH

as NH was influenced by what happened in Iowa. Meaning that if Clark comes in fourth in NH (and the ARG tracking poll has him falling off there) it will affect his standings in some of these other races--just like a third place showing by John Edwards will help him solidify gains he has made in Oklahoma and SC. Also, the biggest drop off is by Dean, but if he can come back with a solid second or a surprise win I think he will gain back some ground in these primary states especially Arizona. We will see what happens on Tuesday.

[cthrumatrix]

5. agreed...they all will...NH will be great rebound for Dean and he will

have the $$$ and the message to move on...it's a 50 state race

[VolcanoJen]

3. Kerry, Clark, Edwards look strongest in next three states

Interesting develoment. Don't count out Dean here, for sure.

Undecideds in these polls are HUGE.

Arizona - Undecided = 23%
Oklahoma - Undecided = 22%
South Carolina - Undecided = 18%

[leyton]

4. I thought Edwards wasn't doing well in Arizona.

Good to see him in a strong position.

[DjTj]

9. It's all Iowa bounce...

...he was like 1% a month before. That's a 1400% increase!

[KC21304]

6. Whew ! Sure glad Dean made it into double digits in AZ.

That could have been really embarrassing .

(Just giving back some of what I have been getting the last few months)

[SadEagle]

7. Looks very good for Clark in OK, SC, AZ. + NH is up

Also new NH poll up, BTW -- see http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/. That one is encouraging for me -- finally joins others in putting Dean at 20%, and suggests movement to mid-twenties (but may not be so good for Clark supporters, as it puts him in 4th, 1 point below Edwards, and w/the trend against him).

NH details:

Kerry :38(38)
Dean :20(16)
Edwards :16(15)
Clark :17(15)
Lieberman :5(5)


Pollster's comment:

The daily trends show John Kerry holding, Howard Dean heading to the mid-20's, Wesley Clark and John Edwards trading places, and Joe Lieberman gaining slightly.

Look at Liberman's numbers, BTW, and compare w/Gallup and other polls. I think this one has less independents(?)

[Maddy McCall]

8. Clark has a commanding lead in New Mexico also.

[ACPS65]

10. If Clark comes in fourth

in NH, I doubt those results will hold.

[Loren645]

11. But but...CNN said Kerry was leading in Arizona.

Were they quoting the Faux/CNN poll?

[welshTerrier2]

12. he is leading according to the results shown above

the base post did not list the candidates based on the poll results ... the poll shows Kerry with 24% which would have him in the lead ... take another look ...

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. He's leading in this poll, too.

AZ
Clark 21%
Dean 10%
Edwards 15%
Kerry 24%
Kucinich 0%
Lieberman 7%
Sharpton 0%


as well as the CNN/Gallup poll.

[mike1963]

14. Oklahoma results don't surprise me. Clark, Edwards & Lieberman are

the only ones who have had any TV commercials running in the Tulsa market. Most of the people I talk with know little or zero about any of the others except for Kerry who is viewed with a lot of suspicion and cynicism because he's an "eastern liberal."

My prediction for the 2/3 primary here: Clark 35%, Edwards 29%, Liberman 17%, Kerry 9%, Dean 7% and a few scattered votes for others.