Dems Poised To Take NY, CA, OH, MA Governorships

[wyldwolf]

Not to pile on about the tanking of Arnold (see R. Michael Alvarez post below) and other GOP Govs, but My DD's Chris Bowers paints a very bright picture of Democratic prospects for taking the GOP-held governorships of several of the most populous States. Do visit his website and read "The Big Democratic Opportunity of 2006: Governors." Here's some teasers:

Ohio. Bob Taft has the lowest approval rating of any Governor in the nation. Mike DeWine has the lowest approval rating of any Senator up for re-election in 2006. Republicans in the state are embroiled in Coin-gate, and congressman Bob Ney is even deeper in Abramoff's pocket than DeLay. Democrats can easily gain on every level here in 2006.
California. In the largest state in the Union, Schwarzenegger is circling the drain...

New York. Right now, there does not seem to be any realistic scenario under which Spitzer will not win this race in 2006. Already, he regularly leads Pataki with more than 50% of the vote, while Pataki rots in the thirties. Incumbents can't pull out of tailspins like that....

Massachusetts. Multiple polls...have shown that Romney is in a lot of trouble in the most Democratic state in the nation.


Bowers discusses the Dems improving prospects in seven states in all, and savors the implications:

All seven of these states are ripe. Here is how sweet a sweep of these seven would be:
Right now, these are the seven largest states with Republican Governors, and combine for over 40% of the national population. Victory across the board would push Democrats in control of states worth around 400 electoral votes, rendering Republicans a small minority party when it comes to Governors.

Republican gerrymanders in Georgia, Ohio, Florida and Texas would be threatened, if not entirely done away with, come 2010. Control of elections in uber-swing states Florida and Ohio would no longer be in Republican hands.

The weakness of Republican Governors in large states presents Democrats with an opportunity to thoroughly reshape the American political landscape. We have waited some time for the Emerging Democratic majority to emerge, and these seven states represent our best chance to make it happen. This is our prize. This is our chance. We have to make it happen.

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/001224.php

[ananda]

1. yay

This -is- good news! Also, I really admire Eliot Spitzer... you go guy!

Sue

[Gayla]

2. Don't forget Alabama..

Lucy Baxley has an excellent chance to be our next Governor!

[quaoar]

26. Better hope she wins

Cuz otherwise it's Gov. Roy Moore.

Plus -- today I saw a "Siegelman 2006" bumper sticker.

[JaneQPublic]

3. Please add Maryland to the list. (nt)

[navvet]

4. Looks Good

In Wisconsin however I get the feeling that Governor Doyle may have a real tussle on his hand to stay the Gov.

Guess we shall see, a lot depends on how the 2 year budget goes, at present the GOP is shooting it's self in the foot on that issue.:toast:

[Massacure]

10. Ya. Mark Green will be a pain in the ass to deal with.

[Cha]

5. I wonder about Hawaii?

I know in 2006 it be time for another Gov election. I just hope they can get a Great Democrat in there.

I hear lingle isn't so good.

[NashVegas]

6. Poised? Geez

We've got another 17 months before there's an election.

Can we keep quiet about it and not scare the RW machine?

[tinrobot]

8. I'm sure they're already scared.

Besides, the best defense is a good offense... keep pushing!

[dsc]

7. You can't beat someone with noone

and currently Ohio Democrats are a total mess. Taft can't run again so the Republicans will have a fresh face. I would love to see it happen but Democrats have messed up royally in Ohio races for well over a decade now.

[liberalpragmatist]

14. There are a couple REALLY strong candidates in Ohio

Rep. Ted Strickland is running for governor and would be an excellent candidate - he hails from Southeastern Ohio and was elected from a largely rural district. He's a methodist minister and has a squeaky-clean reputation plus a moderate record that leans populist on economic issues.

Rep. Sherrod Brown could make the Senate race a real contest as well.

[dsc]

36. I have never met Strickland

but I was impressed when he was willing to accept the Stonewall Democratic endorsement in his district. I had thought he decided to sit this one out, glad to hear I was wrong.

[liberalpragmatist]

37. he changed his mind

He should be a strong candidate. And even if there weren't any scandals, the time-for-change meme would be strong.

Now, the Ohio Dems could still f*ck it up. They're notorious for it. But let's hope.

[Josh]

17. Taft had horrific approval ratings in 2002

when he ran for re-election and he still won in a landslide over Tim Hagan. I'm putting my prediction in right now and saying that no matter who the GOP nominates for governor in Ohio, that candidate will win. Unless something very strange happens.

Wouldn't count out Arnold in California just yet - he's got a state of the art publicity machine, so much of it being that he just seems to attract free media.

New York's a done deal. :)

[OzarkDem]

18. Ted Strickland is a great candidate

He'll do fine.

[Lady President]

23. Just home from a fundraiser

Granted, the Dem. candidates will never be able to bring in as much money as Blackwell, but I just returned from a Mike Coleman for Governor fundraiser that was well attended. At $150 a person ($2500 for sponsors) he had a good night.

I also think Strickland is a good candidate. He's not my first choice, but I'll be happy to vote for him if he wins the nomination.

On the other hand.... there was a ton of gossip about who will run for Senator, but no one seems to have a clue who it will be. :shrug:

[Hippo_Tron]

29. If Blackwell is the GOP nominee, the Dem will get HUGE out of state money

Strickland is sounding like a top tier candidate for this race and considering how many just LOATHE Blackwell, there will be so many checks coming in from Democrats both in state and out of state. Also, Blackwell probably won't do all that well with the African American community. If he plans on getting their vote, he would have to explain the disenfranchisement. Good luck with that one...

[elperromagico]

9. As long as we have good candidates, yes. We have a shot.

We appear to already have a good candidate in NY and could likely come up with good candidates in CA and MA.

OH does worry me, though. Who is the most likely Democratic contender?

It's one thing to have low approval ratings. It's quite another to have a solid challenger.

[mzmolly]

11. I love your graphic.

:toast:

[nevergiveup]

12. As of now we are in trouble in Illinois.

Governor Rod is not popular and if the Republicans nominate a moderate this state could be lost.

[Hippo_Tron]

27. I've heard that the GOP simply can't field anybody who can beat Rod

Yea I've heard that he's done a pretty lousey job, but that the Illinois GOP is in such bad shape that they can't beat him. BTW, we need to get started on gerrymandering Illinois while we still can.

[tritsofme]

32. I don't know about that...

Many in the ILGOP are suggesting that they forgo a costly and bitter primary race and rally around a "unity candidate"

This could leave us in a situation where an incumbent governor is fighting off a primary challenge while the GOP has all their shit together.

There are several GOP candidates that could take down Blago, fmr Governor Jim Edgar looms the largest, as well as Congressman Ray LaHood.

With approval ratings in mid 30% range, I just don't see how Blago could pull off a win.

[Imagevision]

13. I believe Bush's leadrship will cancel out many Repubican seats in 2006

[Nikki Stone 1]

15. Link for the R. Michael Alvarez "tanking Arnold" post???

Thanks!

[wyldwolf]

16. here

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/001223.php

[tritsofme]

19. Save for Ohio, its pathetic we don't control all of those now.

They are some of the bluest states in the union.

[Carla in Ca]

20. Please, please forgive

all the idiots that voted for this groper. We are doing all we can to rid ourselves of this jerk!

[Hippo_Tron]

28. Governors' mansions often go the other way of national politics

Massachusetts, New York (not after this election), and Rhode Island all have Republican Governors. On the other hand, Kansas and Wyoming have Democratic Governors. When one party dominates a state's politics, it becomes possible for somebody from the other party to win as the "outsider", especially in a Governor's race where national issues aren't that big.

[KingFlorez]

21. Thats good news

I'm really anxious to oust Arnold.

[Justice]

22. Some say Romney will not only not run again, but that he will leave

early, to open up the field to Healey (MA)

That would make Romney the 4th republican in a row to leave early/not run again - weld, cellucci, swift

[Doctor_J]

24. Whitewell will win OH comfortably

Primary and General, in much the same way that Smirk "won" there last year.

[Kal Belgarion]

25. Stick a fork in Pataki. I doubt he'll even run.

The Republicans will be hard-pressed to find anyone who wants to run against Spitzer. Unless they can grab Alan Keyes, I think Spitzer'll run unopposed! :)

[iwantmycountryback]

30. Wouldn't that be great!

At least the race would be entertaining. But it seems like Randy Daniels, the Governor-appointed Secretary of State will probably run for the Republicans. And get his ass kicked. The NY GOP is a joke, and it doesn't help having that buffoon Minarik as the chairman of the state party.

[election_2004]

31. Writing off the U.S. Senate is a bad idea....

I'm not saying Governorships aren't important.

However, targeting Santorum, Talent, and Burns in PA/MO/MT will help chip away at the GOP majority, poising the Democrats to retake the Senate in 2008.

[wyldwolf]

35. who's writing off the US Senate?

[laugle]

33. Yea, you can feel the anti-incumbent fever,

here in my state CA, I just read in my local paper that, Jackie Speier, is running for Govenor, and kicking off a fundraiser next week. I like her, and think she could win. We will see........ Thanks for the post. Recommended

[snowbear]

34. Alaska will have either an Independent or a Democrat next year..

Frank Murkowski is doing such a pathetic job that even the ReTHUGS who voted for him want him OUT !!

Our candidates will be-

Andrew Halcro (was an R, but switched to the Independent Party to run)



Ethan Berkowitz (state senator) Democratic Ticket

The only Rethug running is from up in Fairbanks.. he won't win.. Regardless of which one wins.. Berkowitz (my 1st choice) or Halcro, we'll be getting RID of Murkowski !!!! :headbang:

(Alaska has more people registered as Independents than any other party..) Both Berkowitz and Halcro are well respected throughout the state.

Btw... Our idiot Governor said the other day on tv, that since he probably won't run again.. that President Bush has promised to make him an Ambassador of an island in Asia! He said "my wife has always wanted to live there, and George said he'd fix me up" :puke: I can guarantee you.. he'll make a crappy Amassador too!!!