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Edited on Mon Jun-13-05 06:50 PM by Singular73
Because I see everything coming nine steps ahead of when they actually do, I thought I would share it with the gang here, in weekly, opinionated, pundit format.
The Issues:
DSM:
The Downing Street Minutes had no long-term legs, even early this week. It would have snowballed a little, gaining some momentum, but stopped short before doing any real political damage.
Best case scenario: Do some damage for the 06 election. Bush and Cheney stay comfey.
Worst case scenario: Republicans pull a straw-man. Rove fakes a document, releases it, then nullfifies the entire set in the court of public opinion(See Newsweek, Rather, et al.)
Of course, this changed immediately, with the release of additional correlating information contained in newly released documents. The correlating documentation will force the Mainstream Media to talk about this. Matter of fact, they have been waiting for this information...like I said, it would have been a non-starter otherwise (I know, I know, it hurts, but its true).
WHAT WE NEED TO HAPPEN: Blair has to be forced to resign first. We won't get Bush without Blair.
What creates additional momentum is the poll numbers regarding ....
Iraq:
The infotainment will soon switch back to "in-depth" reporting about Iraq, since it is now a universally unpopular war. The fact that some Republicans are stepping forward to denounce the current state of the war (for obvious political gain) absolves them of the "liberal media bias" denouncement of the war. They've been looking for this right-wing waiver, and now that they have it, they will believe that the American Public is now interested again in revisiting the Iraq question. Remember, Richard Clarke, etc... said the same thing near the election, and it had no impact. Why? Because most people, in their 9/11 froth, didn't care why we went to Iraq. Its true. Sorry. Americans wanted Arab blood. And they got it.
Gitmo:
They won't close it. To do so, is an admission of wrong-doing on a systematic scale. Too dangerous.
Howard Dean:
You ain't seen nothing yet. This guy is just getting warmed up. Is it good? I'm not sure. On one hand, he creates such a far-left, base-pumping-up atmosphere, that he allows prospective left-wing candidates to appear more moderate with their hollow protests. On the other hand, he splits his base a bit, causing infighting with far-left radicals, and their more moderate counterparts. In reality, the man has nothing to lose. The MSM treats him as a joke anyways, so he may as well plant some seeds.
But like I said. You ain't seen nothin' yet. Watch for Dean to go ballistic. And it MAY work. Its a gamble, to be sure.
Republicans:
Worried. Very worried. The president's numbers are low. Congress' numbers are low. This obviously hurts incumbents. Do the math. Their solution? Abandon Bush (this is actually BIG...Republicans lock-step like no other organization on the planet. And it works). But, they do need to save their own asses for 06, and they have figured out that they can't have it both ways. This doesn't really help us. They will play both sides of the fence -- voting Republican, talking Democrat. I wish they would have held out longer.
Social Security Reform:
Dead. Couldn't be deader. Not even worth talking about.
Michael Jackson:
Who cares.
Things to watch for:
* Raised terror alerts: Will create Backlash this time
* More Republicans rolling over. Next Sunday.
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