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My Prediction: Bolton will be voted Down.

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ewagner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:23 AM
Original message
My Prediction: Bolton will be voted Down.
This isn't a pie-in-the-sky, pollyanna, always look on the brightside post. No, not at all. It's a post based on the jarring sound of the bullsh*t buzzer going off in my head. I'll explain.

Caught just the last few minutes of WPR's Friday version of Crossfire where the hostess, Joy Cardin, has a Democratic and Republican rep on to discuss the issues of the day. It's generally useless because there is very little discussion and a lot of regurgitation of talking points, but my ears really perked up when she brought up the question: Will John Bolton be confirmed?

The Democratic rep said yes, Bolton will be confirmed because the Repubs have control of the Senate. But the Repub said, he didn't think Bolton will be confirmed. The Repub said that? Yep he did. When asked why, he said that Bolton was getting what the Judicial nominees weren't getting and that is a straight up or down vote. Coming from a Repub insider I found this amazing.

That's when the buzzer went off.

What better way to convince the world the the nomination process is fair and not a Republican slam dunk than to have a controversial nominee brought forth and voted down by Republicans "of good conscience"? If Bolton is voted down, Frist can point to the vote and say "See, we're not such bad guys after all. Why do you need this useless filabuster?"

In other words, they may be making Bolton an object lesson for Democrats and also for national media consumption.

What do you think?
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Hobarticus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:26 AM
Response to Original message
1. Well, he is a shitty nominee, to begin with...
And I think many Repugs know that. If there ever was one to sacrifice in the name of smoke-and-mirrors, he'd be it.

I'd buy that theory.
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mhr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:27 AM
Response to Original message
2. Very Counterintuitive - I Like It
eom
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MarianJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:30 AM
Response to Original message
3. HMMMMM, ewagner,...
...sounds VERY much like something that would come out of kkkarl's lil' bag o' (dirty) tricks!

After all, NOBODY will be sorry if he goes down. Additionally, kkkarl could feed the rw crazies like coulter, hannity, etc. a whole NEW slice of venom about their poor victim.
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peacetalksforall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
4. Yes...it is possible. I just wonder how that strategy could come back
Edited on Fri May-13-05 09:33 AM by higher class
to haunt them or us in the future.

In the meantime, Voinivich is being villified. Nice people.

That means two PNACers are down...Bolton and Feith. Fine, upstanding humans.

Of course, we know that they are never really down
they just go underground
(or start a new foundation).


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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:32 AM
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5. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Bush_Eats_Beef Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
6. Bolton no longer fits the NeoCon Fundamentalist Poster Boy image
On one hand, we have smirk-boy saying "People think he's blunt. Some people say I'm blunt, too."

Then we have Frist, talking about the heathen Democrats standing in the way of God's work (also known as the GOP "agenda").

THEN we have Bolton forcing his wife into group and anal sex at Plato's Retreat.

It makes perfect sense that the "Republicans of good conscience" MIGHT offer him up for sacrifice...but I won't count this chicken until it's hatched.
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ClassWarrior Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
7. Hey, you're smart.
You oughta get into politics. B-)

NGU.


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blondeatlast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
8. That statement from the R is just meant to rally the troops,
I'm willing to bet.

I hope you are right, but this is Frist's baby. He doesn't want the embarassment of a loss on the issue, and he will fight almost to his last breath on it.

Which is why I sincerely hope you are right--I can't wait to see him blow his top. Yesterday was a great show already.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:35 AM
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9. Deleted message
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Rowdyboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:50 AM
Response to Original message
10. Very interesting idea....Those six Republicans who would have to defect
would be absolutely crucified in their home states though. Could make re-election very "iffy". For the country's sake, though, I hope you're right.
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doodadem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 10:19 AM
Response to Reply #10
13. I'm thinking just the opposite
That especially the Repugs that are coming up for re-election next year, are looking at smoothing things over at home. Congress as a whole is polling horribly with the populace right now.
A vote against such an obvious loser as Bolton may play well back home. Although most citizens don't even know, or care, who Bolton is.
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carnie_sf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
11. Regardless of the Machiavelian reason
we need that man at the UN like we need a bull in close proximity to the good china.
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 10:17 AM
Response to Original message
12. You may be right, ewagner...
By design, they will throw Bolton overboard, so they will have more credibility when they ram through the Supreme Court justice in a few weeks or months, also. Your scenario sounds very credible.
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second edition Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 10:23 AM
Response to Original message
14. I hope your right! n/t
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
15. Well, the Dems have the power to do it-
but do they have the courage?

I guess we'll see.
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brooklynite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 10:29 AM
Response to Original message
16. Possibly, but...
its been suggested that the vote on Bolton will be held up until after the "nuclear option" issue is addressed, in part to address Frist's own political needs.
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gratuitous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 10:39 AM
Response to Original message
17. No, I disagree
As someone else pointed out, it's going to take no fewer than six Republican defections (five defections, and Crashcart comes out of hiding to cast his shadow--oops, his vote) to stop Bolton, and other than Voinovich and maybe Hagel, I just don't see it. I also see a couple of Democratic defections voting for Bolton in favor of some chimeric "let the President name his own people, real world consequences be damned, because it will show how cooperative and non-partisan we are."

The Republicans stay on message to the point of ludicrousness, and they stay on their message right up until they can jump at the last possible moment to the next bogus rationale. They won't want to get their easily confused pack of gullibles too deep into politics by mixing the Bolton confirmation with the filibuster controversy.

As others have pointed out, the corrupt Bush administration really, REALLY wants Bolton at the UN to provide cover for whatever casus belli they're cooking up to invade Iran, and Bolton can mouth the most moronic talking points with the best of them. Bolton will be confirmed as the successor to the likes of Henry Cabot Lodge, Adlai Stevenson and Daniel Patrick Moynihan, and stand as a stark reminder through history of the attitude of the troglodytes of the corrupt Bush administration toward international relations.
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ewagner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. Good logic.....
The rumors this morning aboust as many as three Dems jumping ship have me deeply disturbed.

I still wonder why an insider would suggest that the votes aren't there.

btw: Contrasting Bolton with the likes of Henry Cabot Lodge, Adlai Stevenson and Daniel Patrick Moynihan is a stark reminder of how far we have fallen.

Great post....
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. Also...
Once Bush is handed a defeat, no matter the significance, it could set a precedent and they do not wish to have even one card removed from their house of cards.
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. So, I guess you're ruling out the filibuster n/t
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gratuitous Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. The Democrats might filibuster . . .
I don't really have a logical reason for why they wouldn't except to say that I don't think they'll filibuster the Bolton confirmation vote. If they do filibuster it, I'm not sure they'll have the votes to sustain it, and that would compound the setback of Bolton's confirmation. A failed filibuster would give the GOP further talking points about Democratic "irresponsibility" in trying to stop the conduct of the people's business and denying "qualified" candidates the "fairness" of an up-or-down vote.
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bunny planet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 10:45 AM
Response to Original message
18. Sounds about right.
:(
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forgethell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-13-05 11:32 AM
Response to Original message
23. I don't think it will
happen like that. I think bolton will be confirmed. I think, also, that they will destroy the filibuster for judicial nominees.

That will be good when once again we are in power and have a majority in the Senate. Soon, I hope.
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