Where Sens stand on the nuclear option...

[jefferson_dem]

Bitch-boy Fristy is sounding more and more like he's set on launching the nuke strike to end filibusters. Thinking in terms of sheer gamesmanship, this is a HUGE risk . That is, it's far from clear that he even have the votes necessary to pull off the 50 votes.

Off the top of my head, these may be the wavering repugs -

Chafee
Collins
DeWine
Hagel
McCain
Snowe
Specter

Ben Nelson may be the only Dem on the fence.

Anyone have links or information as to which Sens are "in play"?

[tritsofme]

1. I would bet that

Specter, Hagel, and DeWine all go nuclear when push comes to shove.

[napi21]

5. I think you're wrong about Spector.

My guess is that those who have been in the Senate for a long time will not go for it. They realize they will not be in the majority forever.

[tritsofme]

6. Specter owes his ass to Bush and Santorum now

Because if they looked the other way he would have been defeated in the primary.

Despite the fact that he is generally a moderate, I really don't even consider Specter to be a factor when I think about Republicans that might defect.

[napi21]

10. You may be right, but, not trying to be mean, did you see him

when he chaired a hearing a few days ago? I had initially forgotten about him announcing he had cancer, and when the cpsan camera first showed him up close, I yelled, "Oh my God, what's wrong with him?" I guess he must have been taking radioligy treatments, and he looks terrible. He's still pretty moderate from everything I eard him say at that hearing. He just might also be thinking about his own mortality, and vote for what he believes is best.

I guess we'll see.

[MaineYooper]

2. I called Snowe's office on this topic.

The staffer I talked to was very receptive, but I don't know if that's indicative of the senator's stand...

I called Collins' office as well, and was treated politely, but got a different sense from the conversation- just my impressions, of course though.

[dflprincess]

3. McCain told Tweety tonight

that he will not support the nuclear option.

[safi0]

4. McCain won't support it

and I'm guessing because he's one of the most vulnerable Republican senators Chaffee will be against it.

How exactly could Ben Nelson be on the fense about this. One other question do we need 50 votes or 51 to shoot this down, because it could make a key difference

[tritsofme]

7. I've been wondering that too

and no one I've talked to seems to know for sure.

It would seem logical that they only need 50 votes for Cheney to break the tie.

[jefferson_dem]

8. Nelson is likely THE most vulnerable Dem up for re-election and he sits

in a hard red state. He's recently sent signals of wanting "a compromise" on the issue, whatever the fuck that means.

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Frontpage/041305/nelson.html

I fear that Conrad, Dorgan, Lincoln, and Pryor are three others that could swing.

[Mass]

11. Not Dorgan

He has been against the nuclear option for a while now and is not for reelection for another 6 years.

[Dave Sund]

14. Nelson's a smart man

He's NOT going to sandbag his party for the purposes of winning, though. Nelson is doing this to send signals to Nebraskans that he tried to compromise, but Frist wouldn't have it.

[jefferson_dem]

9. We NEED 51 to stop the rule-change. Chain-Knee will break the tie if nec.

That is, in order to over-rule the pariliamentarian who will declare the filibuster constutitional.

[Mass]

12. Last time I saw McCain on TV he was wavering.

Not very good sign. He just got reelected and should be a safe bet, but he wants to run for president.

[Leilani]

15. He has continually said he will not support the nuclear option

Last nite on Hardball was most recent.

The Repubs have spent the past week sticking needles in a doll that resembles him.

[mattclearing]

17. They keep calling it "The Nuclear Option" on CM.

It's like they have to make it sound more interesting for the masses or something. Lame.

[jefferson_dem]

13. According to kos, there are 7 swing votes, of which we need 4.

They are -

Collins (ME)
Hagel (NE)
Snowe (ME)
Sununu (NH)
Gregg (NH)
Lugar (IN)
Warner (VA)

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/4/15/143713/273

[safi0]

16. Of those 4 I'd

Definetely say Collins and Snowe were the best targets I'm not too familiar with the two Senators from NH, I don't think we'd be able to get Warner on our side, I don't know about Lugar and Hagel.

I'm kinda dissapointed that Specter hasn't come over to our side. I know you guys said he owes Bush and Santorum but with his health problems and his age I can't see any way this isn't his last term, in fact I'm not even sure he'll finish this term. So with that you'd think he'd do whatever he felt was right.