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These days, simply increasing turnout doesn't get more Democratic voters. It basically gets more people who lack information, and in November a majority of them got sucked into voting Republican.
Because Republicans have so absolutely embraced The Way We Have Always Done Things, their leaders and 'ideas' have to fail in every department (economic, social, and foreign policies; integrity and leadership) before they lose their sway with average, conventional, Americans. The conservative/Southern Democrats preceded them in this pattern, surviving in office five years past the end of their job in history- getting the more civilized half of U.S. society through the Cold War fairly intact. Republicans have now gotten the other half past their hangups and resentments of most of the Cold War- well, up to about 1972 or 1973 at this point. (We should clear 1980 in late '06 at the present rate, and get to 1989 or 1990 or so by the end of '08. We've been promised retribution at Iran and more mercenary warfare in Latin America, in any case. And we're running some sort of economic and military containment scheme against the present Red Menace, China.)
Back to the present: Democrats pretty much own the swing voters on social and economic policy agenda- that was gained during the late Clinton years and first year of Dubya. Republicans are nursing a slight edge with swing voters on foreign affairs, i.e. the Iraq mess and the way it and this 'War on Terror' is diplomatically propped onto the credibility and forebearance of a diminishing, highly exploited, set of Cold War alliances and friendships.
The leadership/integrity issue is presently moot to swing voters, but there have been enough scandals already that once the priority and 'success' of foreign affairs diminishes for them, the other side is extremely vulnerable.
So a great deal depends on the Iraq business. The Bush people know how vulnerable it their game is to a few decisions going against them- Britain shearing out of the Coalition, for example, or the Saudis telling them to give up. That's why they're trying to keep ahead of the deterioration by distraction efforts and energetic ploys and secret negotiations, e.g. Syria/Lebanon, Iran, and paying off 'insurgents'.
Polling has the Parties running at their persistent 45% each. And no one believes that swing voters are unbiased or unpolarized anymore. Nor are there genuinely untapped reservoirs of voters left. The question is really only which Party can snatch the other's leaners/moderates. Personally, the historical logic of what is being done says that Republicans won't recover swing voters on social or economic policy, and there is a point where their overextension and failures in foreign policy will finally cost them the swing voters on that. The question is only how long Republicans can hold off the reckoning, how long they can find angles and resentments that swing voters aren't wised up on.
So, be nice to moderate Repubs. They learn slowly. But they will make the difference when they switch.
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