Are we in for a LONG SLOG now until the nomination?

[JCMach1]

Just a few things:

1. Dean has enough money to play in all 50 states.
2. Kerry, if he wins in NH, then has to go South.
3. Clark and Edwards will both probably fare better in the South.
4. Unless Kerry gets a new infusion of money has quite literally shot his wad on Iowa and NH.

This may be the first REAL primary season the party has seen in a long time.

However, if Kerry now goes on to crush the competition in NH and South Carolina it may very well be over.

We may very well have to keep our eyes on the delegate count this time!!!

[JasonDeter]

1. I hope so! This is what we invaded Iraq for! To give them Democracy!

No matter how much the stupid republicans ridicule it. No matter how demeaning the stupid talking head media treat this Democratic exorcize! I just wish the Democratic candidates who go on these shows would start reminding the stupid ones that we want to give Iraq a good example. Or is the rubberstamping the stupid republican party that we want to give Iraq?

[andym]

2. It could go into the convention itself

It could go into the convention itself, depending how it plays out, it's quite possible that no one will have enough votes to win outright.

[Lexingtonian]

3. Six weeks are not "a long slog"

1. Bandwagonocrats are leaving Dean, rightly or wrongly, after the big principleless pile-in of November and December. And ask Steve Forbes what having lots of money but a small base is about- it gets you a nice speech at the Convention and a need to dodge lots of thrown knives before and after.

2. There simply aren't all that many delegates to be won in the Southern primaries that matter early enough.
House Districts of the Southern/Western states voting February 3: ~80
House Districts of the West Coast/Northern states voting March 2: ~180

For practical purposes, if the nominee is going to be elected he'll need to get 90+% of his electoral votes from the North, the West Coast, the Southwest. Florida is only about 50%-60% a Southern state and West Virginia about the same- and they are probably the region's only competitive states in the general.

3. Clark and Edwards are competing for and will split the same bloc of Southern primary votes. Goody for them.

4. Money is, according to reports here on DU, quietly pouring into Kerry's campaign. Truth is, NH is so saturated with campaigning and ads that the Democratic money was all put in a while ago. The present batch is going to go into Arizona, Missouri, and South Carolina- but it's not clear whether candidates really can or need to do much more than get their name recognition up (first) and show up in person (second) with any new proposals (third). This one isn't actually being decided much on 'issues'- there is a clear connection between the candidates and their kinds of ideas now, to the extent that it all folds back into- reduces to- 'character'.

****

More practically, Kucinich and Lieberman are the next to go (January 28 and February 4 respectively, I'd guess) and Sharpton is sticking around purely as a helpful presence at debates.

The Florida primary on March 9 is probably the last real contest between the last two or three candidates. At least one or two of the top foursome will be going out sometime in February and early March. I can't see how they won't all be quite expended by then and only 20% of Democrats live in the states that have primaries after that date.

This primary was set up as a power burn, and that is what it has been from November until now. It will be all about survival throughout February- and the last frontrunners will be learning a lot on the fly. But when the decision seems arrived at Bush/Rove will start running overt interference, hitting while they are most expended. That will change the game, but it's hard to see that it will change the decision.

I think that if/when Dean is out of the running, there is still a lot that can be done with the organization that was built up and the money. If these activists are really driven by specifically Democratic ideals or good government commitment, then they could organize regionally around e.g. House races or statewide office campaigns. If it's really mostly motivated by an only slightly restrained desire simply for power, something which has been in a bit too much evidence, maybe it could all reformulate as an activist group that conducts PR and political campaigns against the minions and exploiters of corporate privilege and power.

Kerry is pretty much a Sherman figure. Respected but variably- often not particularly- loved by his own, seemingly inept at the beginning of each campaign. But a relentless and ruthless closer once he's got the particular game being played figured out- which happens in all the ones in which much is at stake. Sherman's soldiers and colleagues never argued with the outcomes, his enemies never got over the anguish of seeing how well he followed up his victories into destroying maximally the foundations and means of their power.

And that's the way I see Kerry working now, and certainly also in a general election campaign- at first kind of inept and unclear but with a rapid gain in focus and quiet seizing of strategic advantages. Then the opponents mount increasingly desperate (and bloody) attacks as his advantages accumulate. If he's the candidate you will be seeing the Pubbies go into apoplectic fits and psychotic rages as his campaign burns down the last support structures of the Bush Presidency. Will he find the political voice that Clinton has? Perhaps not, but perhaps more so than we think. I'm not convinced he's as slow a learner as Gore was/is in that. Still, he has relied on explaining his record of concrete actions- rather than promises or innuendo- as the mainstay of his ability to persuade from the pulpit. Not itself a bad thing, but not yet red meat for those who want their imaginations appealed to.