Zogby: Kerry Catches Up To Dean in New Hampshire; Clark Slides to 16 pts

[Feanorcurufinwe]

Jan 18-20

Dean 25
Kerry 23
Clark 16
Edwards 7
Lieberman 7
Kucinich 2
Sharpton .1
Undecided 16

MOE 4

Pollster John Zogby: In the one night of polling (Tuesday) after the Iowa caucus, Kerry actually led Dean by 2 points. Clark has slid a point a day, since Sunday, significantly. As Dean drops, undecided jumped to 20 points on Tuesday alone. This is not unusual, as voters re-think their support for a candidate; they often shift to undecided first.

Stay tuned; there is as much movement here as there was in Iowa.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=787

[JI7]

1. i hate these polls

i know there are reasons for people to keep a watch on them, but i really do hate them.

[La_Serpiente]

2. I somewhat agree

I look at polls, but I don't really take them seriously. Sure, they are nice guides, but that is all they are. The poll threads on DU are seriously overrated.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. A month out they are pretty meaningless, but with less than a week to go

they seem to provide some insight.

[Bucky]

9. I'm really glad a Kerry person said that. Thank you. (& congrats)

I've worked in polling/market research. Polls can be freakishly accurate sometimes--even when the methodology is a little sloppy. But I'm just releaved upon reading this. I'm a Clark person, but when I first saw the subject line I thought it said "Clark slips 16 points" not "Clark slips to 16 points." Obviously there's a difference.

Congratulations to your candidate, btw. He's really pouring it on for the past two weeks. He's impressing me. In fact, I find I'm liking all the candidates better these days.

[ACPS65]

4. I wish they'd get rid of this ridiculous 3-day format.

Just do one for each individual day like in Iowa.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. The Zogby in Iowa

was a rolling three day average poll as well. As is the ARG. It smooths out the spike and troughs and makes it easier to see trends. Also, if basically they have the resources to do 200 phone interviews a day, and they are constantly doing interviews, it kinda makes sense to put out the data daily like this. But when they publicize the one day figure, as Zogby did today (sort of), it's important to remember that that is only a third the sample size, so the MOE goes up. I don't know enough about statistics to know if it just triples or something else.

[TheStateChief]

5. Drip, Drip, Drip...

Yes, Kerry will probably get a bounce from the media and capture a lot of the undecideds while Dean settles into the 20-25% range with his core...but what I want to know (and what no one seems to be asking) is how Kerry will fare after New Hampshire. I've seen the most recent polls from most of the states that hold primaries through March 7 and Kerry only registers 7 or 8% in all but his own state. Dean, meanwhile, still has his 25-30%. I realize Dean has to expand his base, but what's going to happen if he stays in this thing and Kerry and Clark (or, less likely, Edwards, who is a blip in every poll outside of the Carolinas) both clobber each other and take a third as well? Since McAulliff has fixed the primaries so they're no longer winner take all it is possible we could have multiple candidates with 25-35% of the delegates. What a mess that would be...

[newyawker99]

22. Hi TheStateChief!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[POed_Ex_Repub]

6. It's Kerry's turn to be the frontrunner it would seem..

I wonder if the media is going to hit him on all sides like they did with the previous front runner? Meanwhile Clark waits in the wings.. it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks isn't it?

[Shanty Oilish]

7. While Z wasn't so far off, re Iowa, this is worse than meaningless

It's downright confusing. I can understand Dean dropping, but why should Clark? (Though I hope he does.)

[auburnblu]

8. Clark may be dropping because

Kerry is picking up some of his support. For a week or two Clark was rising and viewed as the candidate who could compete with Dean. Well clearly Kerry is also now viewed as a candidate that can compete with Dean, so Kerry is probably picking up some Clark support and a little Clark support may have shifted to undecided, voters not knowing if they should select Kerry or Clark.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. I think a lot of Clark's support

is/was from people who are Kerry's natural constituency, but who had doubts about whether he was a winner based on all the bad press he was getting. Now that he clearly IS a winner, I think he's getting a second look, and with his solid and proven Democratic record, well-rounded resume and all the other pluses we know about, I think he is going to cut pretty deeply into Clark's support.

If you look at the trend on the ARG poll the week before Iowa, with Clark on his own campaigning in NH, Kerry starts at ten and climbs steadily to 19, while Clark starts at 19, manages to get up to 24 with some good local news coverage, but then slides back to 20 when he gets swamped by the national media reporting the Kerry surge.

[TexasPatriot]

11. i thought this was the first zogby

i believe clark lost ground - he was losing some in the ARG poll too - but according to this he lost a point a day since sunday - so that means he'd be at what, 17 sunday 16 monday 15 tuesday? the ARG polls had him higher by a couple during the same period...

i wish we had internals on this stuff instead of just numbers.

[wtmusic]

12. Kerry's dropped four on Dean overnight

'In the one night of polling (Tuesday) after the Iowa caucus, Kerry actually led Dean by 2 points'.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

13. I Believe You're Misinterpreting the Numbers

The numbers above are a three-day rolling average, with Kerry down two overall. The numbers from today ALONE showed Kerry up two.

So the only reason Kerry is down two in this poll is because the old, outdated numbers from yesterday and the day before are skewed in favor of Dean, probably by 2-6 points.

DTH

[Maddy McCall]

15. Yes. With it being an average, it doesn't show the momentum

in NH that Kerry has picked up as a result of his Iowa win. And it doesn't yet reflect NH voters' reactions to Dean' last couple of bad days.

The daily numbers do, but the rolling average doesn't.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

16. n/t

[isbister]

17. This is more of a reflection of Kerry's Iowa bounce

from the the poll numbers he got before winning. Remember, Kerry was very low in NH until he started showing better in Iowa, then Clark and Dean started loosing numbers.

By debate time we'll have a better idea of what the bounce from winning is going to look like... for Edwards, too.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

21. Zogby is not quite agreeing with the ARG commentary

that said most of Kerry's gain was at Clark's expense. Zogby seems to say it is coming from Dean as well.

[wtmusic]

18. thanks

so Kerry polled where today?

[DoveTurnedHawk]

19. Unclear on Exact Numbers

Zogby didn't release them. But Kerry is up two on Dean today, and my guess is that Clark slipped another point based on what Zogby said.

DTH

[Feanorcurufinwe]

20. They don't report the numbers for an individual day;

at least not officially. Sometimes in the 'comments' they say something about it but you're not really supposed to use that number by itself because it is too small to be a valid sample. Only when it is averaged with the other days does the sample become big enough that the MOE is 4.