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Our challenge in Florida: State Democrats glum and glummer

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ryban Donating Member (251 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 10:20 PM
Original message
Our challenge in Florida: State Democrats glum and glummer
Your thoughts?

From today's Orlando Sentinel story entitled: State Democrats glum and glummer

<snip>

Democrats performing the autopsy on the Nov. 2 election are finding statistics that point to more bad years ahead for a party that still holds an edge over Republicans among Florida's registered voters.

No matter the voter totals, party analysts are discovering that many Florida counties are turning a deeper shade of Republican red.

<snip>

Analyzing results for the top of the ticket, Republican vote totals in 15 Florida counties have seen a dramatic expansion over the past eight years. In Central Florida, Lake, Polk and Seminole have been among the reddest counties. Seminole, for example, went to George W. Bush by 16,503 four years ago over Al Gore and this month sided with the president by a 31,188-vote margin over John Kerry.

"We've done a good job turning out our base vote," Schale said. "But what's scary is that our base just isn't big enough anymore."

<snip>

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-loc...

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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 10:32 PM
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1. And you believe this because.....?
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in_cog_ni_to Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 10:34 PM
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2. Bullshit. I don't believe that hogwash. n/t
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pacalo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 11:39 PM
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3. Unless they have the evidence to prove otherwise, this is spin.
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liberalpragmatist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-15-04 12:44 AM
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4. Nonsense - One election win does not make a "trend"
If anything, the long-term trends tells a different story: How Florida went from being a solid Republican state to a tossup.

The fact that Bush won means just that: Bush won. There wasn't some giant tectonic shift. And the opinion polls had fluctuated for some time, with Florida looking ready to go for Kerry a couple weeks before the election. That's the mark of a tossup, my friends.

A trend can be discerned over repeated elections. If the Republican margins in some of these swing counties get bigger and bigger in subsequent elections, THEN we can say that there's a "trend" - otherwise, it's just one election, one win. Did Clinton's win in states like Missouri indicate a "trend"? No, it was ONE election victory.
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