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MONSTER GRAPH OF 49 STATES: EXIT VS. ACTUAL (38 DEVIATIONS TO BUSH)

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:03 PM
Original message
MONSTER GRAPH OF 49 STATES: EXIT VS. ACTUAL (38 DEVIATIONS TO BUSH)
Edited on Sun Nov-14-04 08:59 PM by TruthIsAll
On Edit: 38 of 49 to Bush
Hard to believe, but check the final exit polls vs. the actual votes.

Diff= Kerry - Bush

Bush Gain = Exit Diff - Vote Diff

To clarify:

If the Vote difference is < 0, Bush won the state; otherwise Kerry won.

If the Exit Poll difference is > 0, Kerry was ahead in the Exit Poll; otherwise, Bush was ahead.

If the Bush gain is > 0, his vote percent was greater than his Exit Poll percent.


Image

This is the data source link:
Scoop: 47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:17 PM
Response to Original message
1. Got Excel?
Curious...thanks for the graphic.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. I do EVERYTHING in Excel
tia
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BlueEyedSon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:21 PM
Response to Original message
2. thx...nice
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Eric J in MN Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:22 PM
Response to Original message
3. Minnesota,
You're saying an Exit Poll had Bush losing by 9 points in Minnesota?

What Exit Poll at what time? Do you have a link to that Exit Poll?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. I just added the link to the original Post
tia
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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:26 PM
Response to Original message
4. Kick
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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:45 PM
Response to Original message
7. are the negative numbers the ones that went Kerry's way? n/t
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 09:00 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. I just updated the post to clarify.
tia
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Sick_of_Rethuggery Donating Member (853 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 08:53 PM
Response to Original message
8. Suggestion...
If you plot Bush - Kerry for the differences, then the shift to Bush (Bush gain) will be more apparent...
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-14-04 09:02 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. I know, but that has already been done. See the link.
Thanks.
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