Cheney is not going to last four years, who's going to replace him?

[catmandu57]

There must be someone flying under the radar, not drawing fire whom they'll name.
I just don't believe they have'nt planned this, and I don't think it's going to be someone who's a lightning rod, so no jebbie, or mccain, or gulliani, assmunch ain't going to live out the year. I hear hasstert is sick as well, so there must be someone under the shell we aren't watching.
It's pretty easy to handicap who isn't going to be there, I don't think someone will come from the senate, the house is a long shot also, it's a govenor or someone we are'nt paying attention too.

[d_b]

1. Arnold

[alittlelark]

2. Frist

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. Delay, Frist

Robertson

Fallwell...

Teh list of candidates just grows worst by the second....

Ashcroft... imagine Ashcroft as the veep...

[Karenca]

7. frist?

oh shit

[pnutchuck]

14. Funny quote from Robertson

"It is about a socialist, anti-family political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians."-- Pat Robertson, speaking of the Equal Rights Amendment

[David Dunham]

4. Arnold cannot replace him. Constitutional bar on foreign-born

[trof]

5. Ashcroft

I understand he's "at liberty' now.

[Karenca]

6. mccain

i thought mccain was the planned one.
second choice would be guiliani.

but you seem better at figuring this out than i do.

[liberal democrat]

10. What motive would he have for nominating a moderate?

If Cheney left during the 1st term, he would have probably given it to McCain to appeal to moderates during the next election. (I doubt McCain would have accepted anyway.) The christian right would not be happy with someone like McCain especially after his moderate, pro-choice nominee to Justice department. If he appointed McCain, the right may not turn out during the midterms as Bush would appear to be moving to the center.

[catmandu57]

19. You're thinking in the right direction

We'll narrow it down through reasoning if we keep at it, then we'll know how to fight it.

[Webster Green]

8. Someone really tough!

Won't be Satan, he'll be busy getting Cheney situated downstairs.

How about Ollie North?

[pnutchuck]

9. Cheney? What about Ashcroft?

Uncle Dick isn't going anywhere, the media is just trying to feed us bullshit to keep our minds off of Fallujah, Arafat, and the rest of the world community. They keep us scared that our own foundations are breaking up so that we don't rock the boat too much. I'm more worried about Ashcroft's actual resignation. He gets a vacation until the next Supreme Court seat opens up and voila, Ashcroft is named for the seat. Now that scares me!

[Silverhair]

15. They won't pick Ashcroft for SC. He is 62.

They will want someone in their 40s so the person will be there a long time.

[pnutchuck]

23. Oh contraire mon frere...

"Age of Nominees

It is first interesting to note how few of the nominees to the Supreme Court have been over the age of 65 or under the age of 45. Those nominees outside this range (N=27) have been confirmed at a rate almost ten percentage points below those within. While the difference in confirmation rates between categories is not exceptionally large, it does represent the second largest differential in Table 2. Thus, bivariate analysis indicate age may be a more critical factor in the decision making of senators than many of the considerations related to judicial experience."--P.S. Ruckman, Jr. http://ednet.rvc.cc.il.us/~PeterR/Papers/paper2.htmd

An interesting site if you want to learn the statistical analysis of Supreme Court Justice nominations.

And with Ashcroft only 62, I think he's still in the running provided the seat opens up within the next couple of years.

[Silverhair]

26. Take a look at the ages of the recent Republican nominees.

The modern era of very conservative Republicans begins with Reagan. However, there are one each Ford & one Nixon justices still there.

Justice Age at Confirmation President
Rehnquist 47 Nixon
Stevens 55 Ford
Scalia 50 Reagan
O'Connor 51 Reagan
Kenedy 51 Reagan
Thomas 43 Bush
Souter 51 Bush

Compare this to Clinton's Appointments
Ginsburg 60 Clinton
Breyer 56 Clinton

Can you see a pattern? The age of various long ago appointments is meaningless to my statement that modern Reps go for younger appointees. Hell, during the Reagan years appointing younger jurists was openly discussed as a political tactic to gain and keep control of the court. It wasn't a secret.

Modern Republicans play hardball politics in their SC appointments. Democrats don't. So they get more years out of their guys than we do out of ours.

Given this pattern of modern Rep appointments, I stand by my prediction that at age 62, Ashcroft is out of the running.

Note that Gonzales, who is will know to be on W's short list is only 49, is a Mexican-American (His parents were born in Mexico, he was born in Texas)and has been with Bush for years. Bush will win the battle to get him for AG, and would love to see the Democratic party fight against him again for SC. Twice we would be fighting against a minority appointment from a minority that they are aggressively courting.

[pnutchuck]

28. Bush isn't the average Republican

He has a far more diverse staff than any other Republican. He pushed for Ashcroft against huge opposition once, I don't doubt that he'll do it again. The timing is just too ominous......

[zulchzulu]

11. Another PNAC member

William Bennett
Robert Kagan
Lewis Libby
Frank Carlucci

[catmandu57]

12. Asscroft is sick

he'll be going home to jaysus before the year is out, scratch him. Ahnold can't be president and there isn't the political capital to change the constitution.
Mccain is angling for sec of defense after darth rummy leaves, gulliani is a personality conflict and a social liberal who wouldn't be acceptable.
It has to be a stealth choice that's how they stole this in the first place.

[Silverhair]

13. Condi Rice.

Granted, she is high on the radar. But she is loyal to Bush, female, black. She is also dangerous as she is articulate and intelligent.

[catmandu57]

17. I don't think so

No matter that the chimp* is a lame duck, the party wants to retain power in 08 and a large part of w's* support comes from people who want women barefoot and pregnant, so she's disqualified.

[Silverhair]

27. Don't kid yourself. The RWs love Condi.

Prowl around on the RW sites and keep up with what they are really saying, not what you think the stereotype would say. You will be highly surprised. NEVER underestimate the opposition.

[jean]

16. Frist - every hair is in place, he's ready to step in anytime. Heck, he

could even be "Dr Frist," on hand at the moment Cheney collapses, and able to save the VP's life! Hallelujah! Who better to step into the shoes of the evil that walks this earth?

And don't forget, he comes from "Good People." And, he's connected at the hip to the Big Pharma.

"Good People Beget Good People": A Genealogy of the Frist Family"

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0742533360/qid=1...

[catmandu57]

20. Frist is also a well known cat killer

and part owner in a medical operation that provides abortions, we'de have a field day with frist, too much baggage.

[jean]

24. My second guess is Hagel.

[Vickers]

18. Maybe he'll truly "reach across the aisle" and pick, say, Hillary Clinton

I swear, I kill myself!

[catmandu57]

21. Don't worry

she'd never accept, and it's not going to happen.

[Catherine Vincent]

22. John Kerry?

Then he can finally become that uniter he's always wanted to be. The only problem is,will John accept?

[cidliz2004]

25. John McCain

Why do you think that he rolled over and supported Bush? They would then be ready to set up for 08, Mc Cain is very popular. They are already planning for 08', shouldn't we be?

[AnnInLa]

29. McCain is too moderate....the RWers will never go for

McCain, Rudy or Arnold. It would have to be frist or santorum, or someone as equally far right. Someone who represents the "Values Voters" base. Catmandu57 is right, it is something we need to start preparing for now....it is a likely scenario: Cheney resigns over "health" problems, bush/rove choose a RWer for new VP, new VP gets 3 years of nat'l exposure, and is in prime positions to get the repug nomination. rove will not allow that person to be McCain, Rudy or Arnold.